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2025年风能展回顾&风电观点更新
2025-10-23 15:20
Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese wind power industry has ambitious goals, aiming for a cumulative installed capacity of 1,300 GW by 2030 and 5,000 GW by 2035, significantly exceeding the 2020 targets, indicating a doubling of annual new installations to 130 GW over the next five years [1][2] - The domestic wind power market shows high certainty in demand, with an expected installation volume exceeding 110 GW in 2025, driven primarily by economic factors and reduced cost per kilowatt-hour, making the internal rate of return (IRR) attractive [1][4] Global Market Dynamics - The global wind power market is experiencing rapid growth, with the tendering scale expected to increase from 50-60 GW in 2026 to around 80 GW, with significant growth in onshore wind in India, the Middle East, and Brazil, as well as offshore wind in Europe [1][4] - European countries need to add at least 20 GW annually to meet their 2030/2035 targets, indicating a fast expansion phase for offshore wind projects [4] Export and International Expansion - Chinese wind power companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with significant growth in export orders expected in 2025, projected to reach 25-26 GW, accounting for about half of the total tender volume in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1][5][6] - The increase in offshore distances and water depths is driving demand for domestic pipe pile industries to participate in overseas projects [3][8] Pricing and Profitability Trends - The wind power industry has seen a recovery in bidding prices for onshore wind turbines, now in the range of 1,500-1,600 RMB per kW, with expectations for further increases in average delivery prices by the end of 2025 and into 2026, which will help restore profit margins in the turbine manufacturing sector [1][10] - The industry has shifted towards larger turbine models, focusing on operational hours and smart products, which aids in stabilizing the supply chain and reducing costs [10] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include the need for technological advancements, supply chain management, and policy support to meet ambitious growth targets, as project cycles can take over a decade from planning to grid connection [5] - Opportunities arise from the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global market, with major players accelerating their international strategies [5][6] Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the wind power industry is optimistic, with both domestic and international markets expected to experience significant growth in the coming years, particularly in offshore wind [7][12] - The industry is entering a new cycle of growth characterized by a resonance of volume and profitability, with a recommendation to focus on offshore wind and international expansion, including key players in subsea cables, pipe piles, and turbine components [12]
港股风电股逆市走高,金风科技领涨!机构:反内卷努力后板块或迎来复苏
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 03:06
Group 1 - Wind power stocks in Hong Kong rose against the market trend, with increases of over 7%, 5%, and nearly 5% among various companies [1] - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of the Chinese wind power industry, suggesting that the sector may experience a recovery following efforts to combat internal competition [2] - The report indicates that after a challenging period from 2022 to 2024, the Chinese wind power industry successfully reversed the trend of vicious competition through self-regulation [3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual new installed capacity will exceed 110 GW, potentially reaching around 120 GW between 2028 and 2030 [3] - The investment opportunities are particularly favorable for key component suppliers and submarine cable companies within the wind power value chain [2]
风电行业反内卷取得了阶段性成效,资金抢筹股出炉(附名单)
Group 1 - The wind power industry has achieved preliminary results in countering internal competition, with significant stock price increases among key players such as Tongyu Heavy Industry and Chuanrun Co., Ltd. [1] - The average bidding prices for wind turbine models have rebounded in the first half of this year, alleviating pressure across the industry chain. For instance, the minimum bidding price for 5 MW units rose from 1157 RMB/kW in 2024 to approximately 1700 RMB/kW in the first half of this year [1]. - All turbine models' bidding prices in the first half of this year are now above their minimum cost prices, effectively curbing the trend of vicious low-price competition in the industry [1]. Group 2 - Major wind power stocks have seen substantial gains, with companies like China National Materials and Hangzhou Gear achieving over 100% increase in stock prices this year. China National Materials leads with a 192.84% increase [2]. - Mingyang Smart Energy reported a stabilization and recovery in bidding prices for wind turbines, with external environment improvements and better order structures contributing to a clearer path for industry and company profitability recovery [2]. - Significant net inflows of capital were observed in wind power stocks, with Tongyu Heavy Industry and Zhongtian Technology receiving 566 million RMB and 147 million RMB in net inflows, respectively [2][3].