风险资产估值修复
Search documents
【观投研】股指期货全线上涨,有色金属领涨商品
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 15:03
Group 1 - The futures market showed structural differentiation on October 27, with industrial products outperforming agricultural products, indicating optimistic expectations for infrastructure and manufacturing demand [1] - The black and base metal sectors led the gains, while agricultural products weakened due to anticipated supply increases [1] - Strong performance in stock index futures was noted, with the CSI 500 (IC2512) rising 1.76% to 7254.4 points, reflecting optimism towards technology growth and cyclical sectors [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment was dominated by positive signals, including a basic consensus reached in US-China trade talks, alleviating external uncertainties [1] - The emphasis on technological innovation and green development in the "14th Five-Year Plan" strengthened policy expectations, contributing to the recovery of risk asset valuations [1] Group 3 - In commodity futures, copper and tin main contracts rose by 1.73% and 1.15% respectively, supported by supply bottlenecks and green demand [1] - Coking coal prices remained strong due to environmental regulations limiting production in the Ulanqab region [1] Group 4 - Short-term policy benefits are expected to support risk appetite, with mid-cap stocks (IM, IC) showing better elasticity, although caution is advised regarding potential valuation corrections [1] - Clear supply-demand gaps for copper and aluminum warrant attention to South American copper mine strikes and domestic inventory changes [1] Group 5 - The fuel oil market is expected to continue its range-bound oscillation, influenced by the interplay between a relatively strong fundamental backdrop and macroeconomic pressures [3] - The PVC market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, with cost support and seasonal maintenance failing to provide sufficient upward momentum [4] Group 6 - Despite high US production levels, expectations for tightening supply and recovering demand are increasing, suggesting that oil prices may continue to run strong in the short term [5] - The urea market is supported by weather and agricultural demand, but overall demand remains weak, with limited upward price potential [6]