Group 1 - The ChiNext Composite Index has risen again, reaching a new rebound high, indicating a strong upward trend without a significant pullback [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is also experiencing an increase, attempting to fill the gap, with a potential target of 3931 points [1][4] Group 2 - Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, with technical analysis suggesting it may have completed a 4-wave rebound and could be entering a 5-wave downtrend, targeting 74150 [3] - Bitcoin is viewed as a leading indicator for global risk assets, sensitive to liquidity changes, and its weakness may signal an impending shift in global liquidity, suggesting that the rally in U.S. stocks and other risk assets may be nearing its end [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current bond market is influenced by multiple factors, including policy effectiveness in curbing disorderly competition and promoting industry clearing, which could support inflation and impact the bond market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - There are concerns about the sustainability of improvements in the fundamental and inflation outlook, compounded by weak domestic and external demand, as well as fiscal and real estate pressures [1] - The short-term effects of policies may be moderate, despite a generally accommodative monetary policy and ample liquidity supporting the bond market [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Short-term vulnerabilities in the bond market are heightened due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1] - Strong performance in equity and commodity markets is creating disturbances in the bond market [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to monitor the performance of risk assets in July to seize opportunities for positioning in the bond market after adjustments [1]