比特币再度大跌，从技术走势来看，局部可能已经完成4浪反弹，开始走5浪下跌，如果是这样，那么加权指数的下一目标指向 74150。不过当前还不能确定会这样走，如果能止跌，则也有可能走3浪结构反弹。为什么要关注比特币？因为比特币可以看作是 全球风险资产的先行指标，对流动性很敏感，其率先走弱意味着全球流动性的拐点将至，美股等风险资产的上涨已经步入尾声。 创业板综指再度上涨创反弹新高，看来真是"一波流"，期间没有b浪的回撤走3浪结构，接下来可关注20日高点压力。沪指也再度 上涨，开始尝试回补缺口，后市还是有可能全部回补，可关注3931点。 大盘再度上涨，反弹仍将延续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bond market is influenced by multiple factors, including policy effectiveness in curbing disorderly competition and promoting industry clearing, which could support inflation and impact the bond market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - There are concerns about the sustainability of improvements in the fundamental and inflation outlook, compounded by weak domestic and external demand, as well as fiscal and real estate pressures [1] - The short-term effects of policies may be moderate, despite a generally accommodative monetary policy and ample liquidity supporting the bond market [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Short-term vulnerabilities in the bond market are heightened due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1] - Strong performance in equity and commodity markets is creating disturbances in the bond market [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to monitor the performance of risk assets in July to seize opportunities for positioning in the bond market after adjustments [1]