Core Viewpoint - The current bond market is influenced by multiple factors, including policy effectiveness in curbing disorderly competition and promoting industry clearing, which could support inflation and impact the bond market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - There are concerns about the sustainability of improvements in the fundamental and inflation outlook, compounded by weak domestic and external demand, as well as fiscal and real estate pressures [1] - The short-term effects of policies may be moderate, despite a generally accommodative monetary policy and ample liquidity supporting the bond market [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Short-term vulnerabilities in the bond market are heightened due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1] - Strong performance in equity and commodity markets is creating disturbances in the bond market [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to monitor the performance of risk assets in July to seize opportunities for positioning in the bond market after adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with all three major indices falling over 1%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.39% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.22% to 121.13, while the 10-year bond futures increased by 0.03% [1] - The trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) exceeded 1.3 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to continue a slightly strong oscillating trend in the second half of the year, with strategies suggesting a focus on wave operations [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of corresponding term government bonds in the Shanghai market and is sensitive to interest rate changes [2]