证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 28 年 月 日 计算机 数币迎重大落地事件，政策暖意初现 数币进入全球落地阶段，国际运营中心正式运营。9 月 24 日，数字人民 币国际运营中心业务平台推介会在上海举行，向各相关机构集中宣传介绍 数字人民币跨境数字支付平台、数字人民币区块链服务平台及数字资产平 台功能，标志着数字人民币国际运营中心正式运营。数币运营中心的成立 标志着中国从数字货币技术试点（如国内零售场景）转向全球化金融基础 设施输出。 中心同步推出三大平台，构建跨境金融基础设施体系。1.跨境数字支付平 台：解决传统跨境支付效率低、成本高等痛点，支持法定数字货币的跨境 应用。2.区块链服务平台：提供标准化跨链交易信息转接及链上支付服务， 促进多场景区块链互联互通。3.数字资产平台：为金融级数字资产提供标 准化服务，支持现有金融基础设施向链上拓展。 美联储降息，全球流动性有望迎来拐点。9 月 18 日凌晨，美联储宣布将 联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 2025 年以来首次降 息，符合市场普遍预期。点阵图显示，美联储官员中位预期年内还将再降 两次 ...

整体而言，全球流动性环境的变化催化了黄金的防御逻辑再度回归。对于希望在复杂市场条件下保持资 产组合韧性的投资者，黄金能够提供跨周期的安全边际。Doo Financial为投资者提供跨市场研究与配置工 具，帮助他们更理性地评估黄金的配置价值，并在全球流动性切换的关键时刻做出更加稳健的投资决 策。 黄金作为无息资产，其估值逻辑与流动性松紧息息相关。在宽松环境下，黄金的吸引力来自于充裕资金 的推动和通胀对冲需求；而在流动性收紧期，虽然金价短期会受到抑制，但当市场逐渐消化高利率冲 击，实际利率回落之际，黄金往往获得新一轮资金配置机会。这种周期性特征，使黄金成为跨阶段资产 配置中不可或缺的组成部分。 重要声明：上述内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 随着全球流动性周期逐渐进入拐点阶段，投资者对避险与稳健回报的需求日益提升。无论是主要央行的 货币政策转向，还是国际资本的跨境流动调整，都直接影响着市场风险偏好。在这种环境下，黄金作为 传统的风险对冲工具，其战略性地位再度凸显。 同时，地缘政治不确定性和全球央行增持黄金储备，也为金价提供了长期支撑。在当下经济格局中，黄 金不仅作为通胀预期变化的对冲工具，更能够在信用环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of foreign investors in A-shares, particularly in four stocks that have reached high foreign ownership levels, leading to trading restrictions due to regulatory limits [3][10]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of August 8, four stocks—Siyuan Electric, Shuanghuan Transmission, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology—have foreign ownership ratios exceeding 24%, with Siyuan Electric reaching 26.83% [3][5]. - Siyuan Electric's foreign ownership rose from 24.64% on July 15 to 28.07% by the end of July, prompting a temporary halt on foreign purchases due to regulatory limits [7][8]. - The surge in foreign investment is attributed to global liquidity shifts, a weakening dollar, and a return of funds to emerging markets [3][18]. Group 2: Performance of Targeted Stocks - The four highlighted stocks are industry leaders: Siyuan Electric in power transmission equipment, Huaming Equipment in transformer tap changers, Hongfa Technology in relays, and Shuanghuan Transmission in precision gear systems [10]. - For the first half of the year, Siyuan Electric reported revenues of 8.497 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 37.8% and 45.71% respectively [11]. - Hongfa Technology and Huaming Equipment also reported revenue growth, with Hongfa achieving 8.347 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 964 million yuan, both showing over 10% growth [11]. Group 3: Foreign Shareholder Insights - Notable foreign investors include Morgan Stanley and Temasek, which have appeared in the top ten shareholders of these companies [12][13]. - As of the end of June, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority held 22.12 million shares of Hongfa Technology, representing 1.52% of the company [14]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing increased its stake in Huaming Equipment significantly, holding 156 million shares by the end of June, a 54.34% increase from the previous quarter [14]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The article highlights that foreign investment is concentrated in sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and medical devices, which are seen as having strong growth potential and favorable valuations compared to global peers [18]. - As of June 30, major companies like China Ping An, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai had over 80 foreign institutional investors each, indicating a strong preference for industry leaders among foreign capital [19].

Group 1 - Foreign investors are increasingly buying into A-shares, with some stocks nearing the 30% ownership limit, leading to temporary trading suspensions [1][3] - As of August 8, four stocks had foreign ownership exceeding 24%, including Siyuan Electric (26.83%), Shuanghuan Transmission, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology [1][3] - Siyuan Electric's foreign ownership rose from 24.64% on July 15 to 28.07% by the end of July, triggering a suspension of foreign purchases [3][4] Group 2 - The stocks attracting foreign investment are industry leaders, with Siyuan Electric being a leader in power transmission and transformation equipment, and Huaming Equipment specializing in transformer tap changers [5] - The financial performance of these companies has been strong, with Siyuan Electric reporting a 37.8% increase in revenue to 8.497 billion yuan and a 45.71% rise in net profit to 1.293 billion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - Hongfa Technology and Huaming Equipment also reported revenue growth, with Hongfa achieving 8.347 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 964 million yuan, both showing over 10% growth [6] Group 3 - Prominent foreign investors such as Morgan Stanley and Temasek have been identified among the top shareholders of these stocks, indicating strong foreign interest [2][8] - As of the end of June, over 80 foreign institutions held shares in major companies like China Ping An, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, reflecting a trend of foreign investment in leading firms [11] - The banking sector and state-owned enterprises have also seen significant foreign investment, with major banks like Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank attracting substantial foreign holdings [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's hesitation in lowering interest rates is seen as a strategic move, contrasting with other central banks that have acted more decisively [2][4] - The potential shift to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve could lead to a significant change in global capital flows, historically associated with rising asset prices [4][5] - A-shares are positioned as a potential beneficiary of international capital inflows due to their valuation, but retail investors may struggle to profit despite overall market gains [5][6] Group 2 - The complexity of modern markets leads to rapid sector rotations, making it difficult for retail investors to capitalize on opportunities while incurring high transaction costs [9] - Understanding the underlying data is crucial for making informed investment decisions, as market movements can be misleading without considering institutional participation [10][12] - Institutions often create panic to induce retail investors to sell at low prices, which can be identified through specific signals in market data [13][15] Group 3 - Data serves as a reliable guide in a noisy market, allowing investors to discern the true dynamics at play rather than relying on emotional reactions [16][18] - The current global monetary policy environment is at a critical turning point, and understanding the flow of institutional capital is essential for navigating market changes [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China is potentially at the beginning of a new investment cycle, supported by recent macroeconomic data and policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth [1][4] - China's retail sales in April 2025 grew by 6.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, while industrial output increased by 4.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment showed steady progress, with infrastructure investment rising by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating its role as a key support for the economy [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies since late 2024 to support growth, including structural monetary tools and reforms in local debt replacement mechanisms [2] - New RMB loans reached 11.3 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2025, with corporate medium to long-term loans increasing by 8.7% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in financing demand from technology-oriented SMEs [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued guidelines to promote a "soft landing" for the real estate market, which may alleviate downward pressure [2] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's indication that the current rate hike cycle is nearing its end has been interpreted as a signal of a "global liquidity turning point," leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rebound in global stock markets [3] - The net inflow of northbound funds into the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 9.2 billion yuan this week, showing a recovery trend for three consecutive weeks, particularly in the technology and new energy sectors [3] Group 4 - Overall, the combination of global economic cycle shifts and domestic policy support is leading to a stabilization of the Chinese economy, characterized by improved confidence and structural optimization [4] - There is a general expectation that if growth-stabilizing policies continue to deepen in the second half of the year, along with a trend of global capital returning, China may enter a new investment cycle focused on technological innovation and green transformation [4]