2025 年 7 月 11 日│中国香港 租赁 | 中银航空租赁（BOCA）于 25 年 7 月 10 日披露了 2Q25 运营数据。上游飞 | | | --- | --- | | 机制造商产能环比修复，2Q25 波音和空客合计交付了 320 架飞机，相比 | | | 的飞机交付数量环比小幅提升至 1Q25 的 266 架有所提升。BOCA 13 架 | | | （1Q25：11 架），但 2Q25 公司出售了 14 架飞机，导致自有飞机数量减 | | | 少 441 架。我们认为，在资产端，上游产能改善是积极信号，如果 | 1 架至 | | 可以持续，将有利于公司享受飞机租金上涨带来的收益，同时便于今年资本 | | | 开支的投放；在负债端，美联储降息节奏仍然存在不确定性，5 年期美债利 | | | 率在 3.8-4.2%之间摇摆，如果未来美债利率仍然在高位，可能加大公司 25 | | | 年的负债端压力。我们预计公司 25 年核心 ROE 为 10.6%，与 2024 年的 | | | 10.5%大致持平。维持公司"买入"评级。 | | 上游产能环比改善 疫情后上游飞机制造商的产能受限，导致了两个结果：其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has faced significant challenges in recent years, with its stock underperforming compared to the S&P 500, but recent operational improvements and a strong backlog provide a glimmer of hope for recovery [1][10]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of July 8, Boeing's five-year total return was only 22%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's return of approximately 112% [1]. - Boeing stock started 2025 poorly, falling 23% through early April, but rebounded to a 23% increase by June 8, outperforming the S&P 500's 6% return [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Improvements - Boeing reported a 27% increase in commercial plane deliveries in June compared to the previous year, with a total of 60 planes delivered [4]. - For the first half of 2025, Boeing's commercial plane deliveries reached 280, marking a 60% increase from the first half of 2024 [4]. - Defense, Space, and Security deliveries also improved, totaling 62, a nearly 48% increase from 42 in the first half of 2024 [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Boeing is narrowing the gap with Airbus, which delivered 306 planes in the first half of 2025, while Boeing's deliveries have surged [5]. - Airbus's deliveries fell by around 5.6%, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics favoring Boeing [5]. Group 4: Safety Concerns - Safety remains a critical issue for Boeing, highlighted by the recent Air India crash involving a 787 Dreamliner, which could impact public perception [6][7]. - Despite efforts to improve safety, including leadership changes and quality control measures, it will take time to rebuild trust in Boeing's safety record [8]. Group 5: Backlog and Future Outlook - Boeing's backlog stood at 5,953 planes at the end of June, indicating strong demand and a potential for future growth [9]. - The current recovery is seen as a positive sign, but Boeing must continue to improve execution to see significant stock appreciation [10].

高盛维持净需求预测不变，同时考虑到通过与客户分享部分节省的燃料成本导致票价降低，以及油价假 设的下调，将内地三大航空股2025年至2027年的净利测预测调整，由降5%至升2%不等，并根据更新的 股本回报率预测，调整了目标市账率。总体而言，该行维持三大航空股H股"买入"评级，中国国航 （601111）(00753)H股目标价维持6.7港元不变;中国东方航空股份(00670)H股目标价由3.4港元升至3.5港 元;中国南方航空（600029）股份(01055)H股目标价维持4.4港元。 三大航空公司管理层均表示，其当前机队计划基于现有合同，但考虑到交付延迟和租赁合同续签的不确 定性，实际新增飞机数量可能低于预期。因此，高盛仍预测2025年至2027年各年净需求增长分别为 4.2、2.1和1.7个百分点，并预计票价将呈现连续改善。另一方面，航空公司盈利对油价下跌较为敏感， 该行认为航空公司可能会将部分节省的燃料成本与客户分享，以吸引更多乘客。 高盛发布研报称，中国航空公司可能受益于飞机交付缓慢导致的供应短缺，以及油价下跌。该行注意 到，市场对需求增长表示担忧，原因包括关税上调导致的宏观经济疲软，以及比预期更快的机队 ...