纯粹的飞机租赁龙头企业 渤海租赁（000415.SZ）动态报告 研究团队：非银金融&交运 报告日期：2026年2月25日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 公司出售集装箱资产，整体业务回归飞机租赁。近年来渤海租赁飞机租赁及销售收入占比持续提升，2025H1飞 机相关收入占比达到89%，集装箱相关收入占比为10%。2025年公司正式出售集装箱资产，2025年11月公司同 时转让天津渤海持有的皖江金租股份，公司主业将更加聚焦于飞机租赁。 ➢ 飞机子公司后续有望占据更大市场份额。2025年波音空客飞机产能逐步修复，整体交付水平已经优于2019年。 但当前供需缺口依旧较大，当前波音空客全部待交付订单超2万架。从行业格局来看，2025年末仍有155家航司 以及23家租赁商手里拥有波音空客的飞机订单，Avolon预计2030年末该数量将减少为70、11家。后续份额将 进一步向头部飞机租赁商集中。 ➢ 风险提示：利率上行，地缘政治，上游交付延期，债务展期风险，汇率风险，资产处置与业务转型风险，控制 权变动风险。 01 背景：公司出售集装箱资产 02 A ...

纯粹的飞机租赁龙头企业 渤海租赁（000415.SZ）动态报告 研究团队：非银金融&交运 报告日期：2026年2月25日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 公司出售集装箱资产，整体业务回归飞机租赁。近年来渤海租赁飞机租赁及销售收入占比持续提升，2025H1飞 机相关收入占比达到89%，集装箱相关收入占比为10%。2025年公司正式出售集装箱资产，2025年11月公司同 时转让天津渤海持有的皖江金租股份，公司主业将更加聚焦于飞机租赁。 ➢ 飞机子公司后续有望占据更大市场份额。2025年波音空客飞机产能逐步修复，整体交付水平已经优于2019年。 但当前供需缺口依旧较大，当前波音空客全部待交付订单超2万架。从行业格局来看，2025年末仍有155家航司 以及23家租赁商手里拥有波音空客的飞机订单，Avolon预计2030年末该数量将减少为70、11家。后续份额将 进一步向头部飞机租赁商集中。 ➢ 风险提示：利率上行，地缘政治，上游交付延期，债务展期风险，汇率风险，资产处置与业务转型风险，控制 权变动风险。 01 背景：公司出售集装箱资产 02 A ...

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) reported significant growth in its financial metrics for Avolon, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance through 2025 [1] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Avolon's total assets are $34.418 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - Avolon's net assets are $8.712 billion, also showing a 2% growth compared to the end of 2024 [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, Avolon achieved leasing revenue of $2.751 billion, which is a 7% increase year-over-year [1] - Total revenue reached $3.000 billion, marking a 7% increase from the previous year, excluding the impact of Russian aircraft insurance and settlement [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was $2.144 billion, up 7% from the same period last year [1] - Avolon reported a net profit of $591 million, representing a substantial 29% increase year-over-year, excluding the effects of Russian aircraft insurance and settlement [1]

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，更新对中银航空租赁(02588)的预测，并将目标价从80港元上调至 98.5港元，以反映更高的盈利预测，并计入其机队估值溢价带来的隐含权益，评级"买入"。 花旗在业绩缄默期前与中银航空租赁管理层对话，提到公司2025年上半年，核心净利润同比增长20%， 管理层预期2025年下半年亦将持续强劲增长。管理层重申全年35%的股息分派政策，并鉴于其低杠杆 率，有潜力进一步提高分红。管理层预计2025年下半年净租赁收益率将按半年大致稳定，而出售飞机的 利润率将较上半年有所提高。 报告引述管理层表示，市场对飞机的强劲需求亦支撑公司的隐含权益，截至2025年上半年末，其机队评 估价值较飞机账面净值高出15%。管理层表示，2025财年资本支出大致达到先前40亿美元的目标；并计 划在2026财年进一步增加资本支出。该行上调中银航空租赁2025至27年各年盈测分别3%、2%及3%，至 7.54亿美元、8.41亿美元及9.07亿美元，主要是为反映飞机处置收益预测获上调。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast for Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588), raising the target price from HKD 80 to HKD 98.5, reflecting higher profit expectations and accounting for the implied equity from fleet valuation premium, with a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - The management anticipates a 20% year-on-year growth in core net profit for the first half of 2025, with continued strong growth expected in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company maintains a 35% annual dividend payout policy and has the potential to further increase dividends due to its low leverage [1] Revenue and Profitability - The net leasing yield is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025, while the profit margin from aircraft sales is projected to improve compared to the first half [1] - The management indicated that strong market demand for aircraft supports the company's implied equity, with the fleet valuation exceeding the book value of the aircraft by 15% as of the end of the first half of 2025 [1] Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach the previously targeted USD 4 billion, with plans to further increase capital expenditure in fiscal year 2026 [1] Earnings Forecast - Citigroup has raised the earnings estimates for Bank of China Aviation Leasing for the years 2025 to 2027 by 3%, 2%, and 3% respectively, to USD 754 million, USD 841 million, and USD 907 million, primarily reflecting the upward revision of aircraft disposal profit forecasts [1]

花旗发表研报指，在业绩缄默期前与中银航空租赁管理层对话，公司2025年上半年核心净利润按年增长 20%，管理层预期2025年下半年亦将持续强劲增长。管理层重申全年35%的股息分派政策，并鉴于其低 杠杆率，有潜力进一步提高分红。管理层预计2025年下半年净租赁收益率将按半年大致稳定，而出售飞 机的利润率将较上半年有所提高。 花旗更新对中银航空租赁的预测，并将目标价从80港元上调至98.5港元，以反映更高的盈利预测，并计 入其机队估值溢价带来的隐含权益，评级"买入"。该行上调中银航空租赁2025至27年各年盈测分别 3%、2%及3%，至7.54亿美元、8.41亿美元及9.07亿美元，主要是为反映飞机处置收益预测获上调。 ...

Core Insights - Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) is projected to achieve a net profit of $702.2 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [1] - The company's pre-tax profit is expected to reach $761.6 million, reflecting a growth of 43% [1] - Total revenue is anticipated to rise to $1.725 billion, marking a 21% increase, driven primarily by fleet expansion and increased leasing and maintenance revenues [1] Operational Highlights - DAE acquired a total of 280 aircraft and sold 111 aircraft during the year [1] - The company signed 273 leasing-related agreements, indicating sustained strong demand in the aviation leasing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Bank announced a capital increase of 2 billion yuan for CITIC Financial Leasing, raising its registered capital to 12 billion yuan, maintaining 100% ownership [1] Group 1: Company Overview - CITIC Financial Leasing was established in 2015 as a wholly-owned subsidiary of CITIC Bank, focusing on sectors such as aircraft, ships, household photovoltaics, and vehicles [2] - The company currently operates a fleet of 19 aircraft and 5 engines, with 9 aircraft pending delivery, bringing the total fleet size close to 30 [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, CITIC Financial Leasing achieved a net operating income of 1.697 billion yuan and a net profit of 936 million yuan [3] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a net operating income of 1.664 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.184 billion yuan [3] - As of September 2025, the total asset size reached 112.928 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 99.671 billion yuan and net assets of 13.258 billion yuan, resulting in an asset-liability ratio of 88.26% [3] Group 3: Industry Context - The capital increase trend in the financial leasing industry is driven by regulatory requirements and the need to address industry competition and business transformation [1] - The financial leasing sector is capital-intensive, and higher registered capital provides stronger risk buffers and meets regulatory capital adequacy and leverage ratio requirements [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Bank has approved a cash capital increase of 2 billion yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, CITIC Financial Leasing, raising its registered capital from 10 billion yuan to 12 billion yuan, marking the second significant capital injection within a year, reflecting a strategic reassessment of the financial leasing sector amid regulatory changes and new market opportunities [1][2][4] Group 1: Capital Increase and Strategic Intent - The recent capital increase is part of a clear strategic intent and robust performance support, with CITIC Financial Leasing's registered capital previously raised from 4 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan in a short span [2] - CITIC Financial Leasing focuses on strengthening its core business areas, including aircraft and ship leasing, while also promoting retail models in household photovoltaic and vehicle sectors, achieving significant financial growth [2][5] Group 2: Industry Landscape and Competition - The increase in registered capital to 12 billion yuan positions CITIC Financial Leasing among the top tier in the financial leasing industry, surpassing competitors like CCB Financial Leasing and BOC Financial Leasing [3] - The capital competition among leasing companies is intensifying, driven by regulatory requirements and market opportunities, with many firms increasing their capital to meet new standards [4][6] Group 3: Implications for Competitive Dynamics - The capital boost enhances CITIC Financial Leasing's project bidding, risk pricing, and long-term asset construction capabilities, potentially triggering a new round of competition within the industry [5][6] - As leading institutions upgrade their capital, competition is shifting from mere scale pursuit to a comprehensive contest involving capital efficiency, professional capabilities, and strategic ecosystems [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Leasing is expected to report a significant divergence in its 2025 performance, with a projected net profit loss of 250 million to 500 million yuan, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment. However, excluding the impact of a 3.289 billion yuan goodwill impairment in the first half of the year, the net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be around 2.8 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 210% to 237% [1] Group 1 - The core driving factors for the expected profit increase include strong global air passenger demand and limited production capacity from aircraft manufacturers, which have kept aircraft leasing rates and renewal rates at high levels [1] - Accelerated aircraft sales are also contributing positively to the company's performance [1] - A debt restructuring gain is anticipated to be confirmed in Q4 2025, further supporting the financial outlook [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the removal of impairment disturbances, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to lower financing costs, and the delivery of high-margin aircraft, is expected to result in a substantial reversal in the company's performance [1] - The strategic transformation focusing on aircraft leasing is expected to yield further positive results [1] - The company is assigned a valuation of 1x PB for 2026, corresponding to a reasonable value of 5.26 yuan per share, with a "Buy" rating [1]