Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the sugar market, highlighting the need to monitor changes in India's sugar and ethanol shares. It presents data on sugar fundamentals, macro and industry news, and market trends in both domestic and international markets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 15.24 cents per pound, down 0.53 from the previous period. The mainstream spot price is 5750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The futures主力 price is 5438 yuan per ton, up 10. The 15 - spread is 42 yuan per ton, up 3, and the 59 - spread is - 14 yuan per ton, unchanged. The mainstream spot basis is 312 yuan per ton, down 10 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but its exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 325 million tons in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease; 374 million tons in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease; and 359 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab lowered Brazil's production forecast for the 25/26 season to 4.45 billion tons from 4.59 billion tons. China imported 55 million tons of sugar in September, an increase of 15 million tons [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 1.116 billion tons in the 24/25 season, with consumption of 1.58 billion tons and imports of 500 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 1.116 billion tons of sugar, an increase of 120 million tons, and sold 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China imported 463 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 12 million tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3.352 billion tons, an increase of 28 million tons, and a cumulative MIX of 52.68%, up 3.84 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's total sugar production to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 season, up from 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].