Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the sugar market is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market remains in a bearish cycle. From June to August, the external market is expected to remain weak due to large - scale production and supply during the peak crushing season in Brazil and optimistic production prospects in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries. However, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Purpose - To understand the procurement and production status of coastal sugar refineries, terminal consumption, the impact of substitutes, and the logistics and distribution status in sales areas, the analyst participated in the "2025 Fujian Regional Sugar Research Activity" from May 26th to 30th, aiming to answer questions such as the procurement of imported sugar by coastal refineries, the arrival and production rhythm, the market's view on the inverted spot price at ports, the impact of strict import controls on syrup and premixed powder, the impact of the macro - economic environment on terminal sugar consumption, the impact of substitutes on sugar consumption, and the industry's judgment on the future sugar market [10] 2. Research Summary - **Import procurement and production of refineries**: A central - state - owned company in Zhangzhou started production in March, and two other companies plan to start in June and mid - July respectively. It is estimated that a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in June, with a more concentrated arrival in July - August. The import cost of raw sugar is about 6,000 yuan per ton or higher. The issuance of import licenses has decreased year - on - year, but the utilization rate is high, and all licenses are expected to be used up [12][13] - **Fujian spot market**: The price difference between the Fujian port and the origin cannot cover the freight, showing an inverted state that has persisted for a long time. The current price of Guangxi sugar in Fujian is close to 6,300 yuan per ton, and the price of refined sugar ranges from 6,200 - 6,900 yuan per ton [14] - **Imported syrup and premixed powder**: Import controls on syrup and premixed powder are very strict this year. Although it may not completely eliminate imports, the overall volume is expected to be controllable [15] - **Liquid sugar project**: The production and demand of liquid sugar in China have increased in the past two years, but its production is restricted by raw material import quotas and licenses, and its application and promotion are limited by various factors such as equipment adaptation, short shelf - life, and specific logistics requirements [16] - **Domestic consumption situation**: The overall scale of sugar - containing foods is still growing, but due to the impact of substitutes, the domestic sugar consumption is difficult to increase. The consumption of candies is not ideal, while the scale of baked goods is growing, and the beverage industry shows a polarized situation [17][18] - **Consumption seasonality**: The summer is the peak season for cold drink consumption, followed by the Mid - Autumn Festival mooncake consumption season, and from August - September to the Spring Festival, the demand for snacks will pick up. The peak season sales of candies are more than twice that of the off - season [19] - **Pre - sale of new beet sugar**: The pre - sale of new beet sugar in the north started in April, and the pre - sale progress is fast due to the restricted import of syrup and premixed powder [20] - **Production outlook in Guangxi**: The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi is expected to increase by 3%. Although the current plant height is shorter than in previous years, there is hope for an increase in production if the weather is favorable. The start - up time of sugar mills in Guangxi this year is not expected to be delayed [21] - **Operating difficulties of sugar traders**: Sugar mills and refineries are profitable, and terminal food enterprises are in a relatively good situation, while sugar traders, especially small and medium - sized ones, are facing great pressure and are at risk of being squeezed out of the market [22][23] - **Market outlook**: Most research institutions expect the domestic white sugar spot price to decline in the future. For futures, the upward movement is restricted by the expected increase in refined sugar supply, and the downward movement is restricted by purchase prices and high basis. The future operation range of Zhengzhou sugar is estimated to be between 5,400 - 6,100 yuan per ton [24] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **International market**: The international sugar market is in a bearish cycle. Brazil's sugar production is expected to be high, and the production prospects of Asian major producing countries are also optimistic. However, due to factors such as low - level buying demand, uncertain Brazilian production, and a narrow sugar - alcohol price difference, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound [25][26] - **Domestic market**: As the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The weak external market will also affect the domestic pricing expectation of refined sugar. However, the high - basis state will restrict the downward rhythm of futures prices. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, COFCO's pricing, and the performance of the external market [27]