出海战略加速推进，新项目奠定公司成长性。公司于 2025 年 7 月 1 日完成与日本协和发酵相关食品氨 基酸、 医药氨基酸、 HMO 业务与资产的交割，公司产业链向下游高附加值医药级氨基酸市场延伸， 医药氨基酸产品管线进一步增加，同时增加 HMO 产品管线，并获得了位于上海、泰国、北美等地多个 生产经营实体，实现公司产业出海战略落地。报告期内，通辽味精产能升级项目实现满产达效，目前该 生产线是全球单体味精产能最大的生产线之一；吉林赖氨酸项目正在建设之中，预计于今年四季度投产 试车。公司更多优质项目如缬氨酸、色氨酸、精氨酸、组氨酸、高品质黄原胶等提档升级项目正在规划 中。这些优质项目的成功推进，有助公司经营规模的扩大。 维持"增持"投资评级。预计2025~2027 年归母净利润分别为31.1 亿、35.0亿、38.6 亿元，EPS 分别为 1.09、1.23、1.35 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为10.1、8.9、8.1 倍，维持"增持" 投资评级。 事件：公司发布2025 年半年报，报告期内实现营业收入122.80 亿元，同比下降2.87%，归母净利润 17.68 亿元，同比增长19.96%，扣非净利润1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the sugar market is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market remains in a bearish cycle. From June to August, the external market is expected to remain weak due to large - scale production and supply during the peak crushing season in Brazil and optimistic production prospects in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries. However, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Purpose - To understand the procurement and production status of coastal sugar refineries, terminal consumption, the impact of substitutes, and the logistics and distribution status in sales areas, the analyst participated in the "2025 Fujian Regional Sugar Research Activity" from May 26th to 30th, aiming to answer questions such as the procurement of imported sugar by coastal refineries, the arrival and production rhythm, the market's view on the inverted spot price at ports, the impact of strict import controls on syrup and premixed powder, the impact of the macro - economic environment on terminal sugar consumption, the impact of substitutes on sugar consumption, and the industry's judgment on the future sugar market [10] 2. Research Summary - **Import procurement and production of refineries**: A central - state - owned company in Zhangzhou started production in March, and two other companies plan to start in June and mid - July respectively. It is estimated that a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in June, with a more concentrated arrival in July - August. The import cost of raw sugar is about 6,000 yuan per ton or higher. The issuance of import licenses has decreased year - on - year, but the utilization rate is high, and all licenses are expected to be used up [12][13] - **Fujian spot market**: The price difference between the Fujian port and the origin cannot cover the freight, showing an inverted state that has persisted for a long time. The current price of Guangxi sugar in Fujian is close to 6,300 yuan per ton, and the price of refined sugar ranges from 6,200 - 6,900 yuan per ton [14] - **Imported syrup and premixed powder**: Import controls on syrup and premixed powder are very strict this year. Although it may not completely eliminate imports, the overall volume is expected to be controllable [15] - **Liquid sugar project**: The production and demand of liquid sugar in China have increased in the past two years, but its production is restricted by raw material import quotas and licenses, and its application and promotion are limited by various factors such as equipment adaptation, short shelf - life, and specific logistics requirements [16] - **Domestic consumption situation**: The overall scale of sugar - containing foods is still growing, but due to the impact of substitutes, the domestic sugar consumption is difficult to increase. The consumption of candies is not ideal, while the scale of baked goods is growing, and the beverage industry shows a polarized situation [17][18] - **Consumption seasonality**: The summer is the peak season for cold drink consumption, followed by the Mid - Autumn Festival mooncake consumption season, and from August - September to the Spring Festival, the demand for snacks will pick up. The peak season sales of candies are more than twice that of the off - season [19] - **Pre - sale of new beet sugar**: The pre - sale of new beet sugar in the north started in April, and the pre - sale progress is fast due to the restricted import of syrup and premixed powder [20] - **Production outlook in Guangxi**: The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi is expected to increase by 3%. Although the current plant height is shorter than in previous years, there is hope for an increase in production if the weather is favorable. The start - up time of sugar mills in Guangxi this year is not expected to be delayed [21] - **Operating difficulties of sugar traders**: Sugar mills and refineries are profitable, and terminal food enterprises are in a relatively good situation, while sugar traders, especially small and medium - sized ones, are facing great pressure and are at risk of being squeezed out of the market [22][23] - **Market outlook**: Most research institutions expect the domestic white sugar spot price to decline in the future. For futures, the upward movement is restricted by the expected increase in refined sugar supply, and the downward movement is restricted by purchase prices and high basis. The future operation range of Zhengzhou sugar is estimated to be between 5,400 - 6,100 yuan per ton [24] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **International market**: The international sugar market is in a bearish cycle. Brazil's sugar production is expected to be high, and the production prospects of Asian major producing countries are also optimistic. However, due to factors such as low - level buying demand, uncertain Brazilian production, and a narrow sugar - alcohol price difference, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound [25][26] - **Domestic market**: As the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The weak external market will also affect the domestic pricing expectation of refined sugar. However, the high - basis state will restrict the downward rhythm of futures prices. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, COFCO's pricing, and the performance of the external market [27]