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番茄资本创始人卿永:国内餐饮可出手的机会不多了
经济观察报· 2025-05-10 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The future of restaurant investment will move away from a scattergun approach to a more focused and meticulous strategy, emphasizing the need for investment institutions that understand both capital and industry, capable of identifying and nurturing opportunities [1][14] Group 1: Recent Developments in Restaurant IPOs - New tea beverage brand Bawang Chaji (CHA.O) officially listed on NASDAQ on April 17, becoming the first new-style tea beverage company to enter the US stock market, with a market capitalization exceeding $5 billion after a 12% opening day increase [2] - In the week prior, Hong Kong restaurant brand Niu Daren successfully listed on NASDAQ, raising $120 million, while another brand, Yujian Xiaomian, submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first listed Chinese noodle restaurant [2] - The recent surge in restaurant IPOs has drawn attention, with several brands, including Mixue Ice Cream and Guming, also having listed in Hong Kong [2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - According to Qing Yong, founder of Tomato Capital, the current wave of IPOs is a continuation of the investment boom in the restaurant sector that peaked in 2021, which saw 178 financing events totaling over 21 billion yuan [3] - The 2021 investment frenzy led to inflated valuations, with brands like Manner and Hutouju achieving single-store valuations exceeding 100 million yuan and 375 million yuan respectively [4] - However, investment in the restaurant sector has cooled significantly, with a 20% year-on-year decrease in financing events in 2023, as capital shifts towards mature enterprises [4] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Current restaurant investments face the challenge of limited available projects, with many enterprises under pressure to exit their investments, making IPOs a necessary choice [4][5] - The investment landscape has shifted, with a more cautious valuation approach now prevalent, with PE ratios for quality projects at 15 times and ordinary projects at 10 times [10] - The market is witnessing a transformation where only those with sustainable cash flow and reasonable growth will receive valuations aligned with their fundamentals [10][12] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Focus Areas - The financing logic in the restaurant industry has changed, with three main types of companies seeking funding: those nearing IPO, those facing exit pressure, and those with validated single-store models ready for scaling [11][12] - Investment institutions are increasingly focusing on nurturing quality entrepreneurs and building a comprehensive industry ecosystem, moving away from traditional financial investment models [12][13] - Companies are exploring overseas markets for greater investment opportunities, with the US market offering stable single-store profit models and mature exit mechanisms [15]