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兴业证券:建议重视2026年服务消费元年 全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主线
智通财经网· 2026-02-25 03:55
春节假期总结:历史最长春节假期驱动中长途客流增速高景气,票价良好增长 1)量端,国内游方面,根据交通运输部统计,2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%,其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游,与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善;而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%;出入境游方面,据国家移民管理局,2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次,较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2)价端,根据DAST统计,春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%,预计 假期票价增速高于节前(2.22票价同比增长6.3%)。 智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券发布研报称,2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重,其中我国居民服务 消费对比海外具备较大提升潜力,有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手,金钱、时 间、供给侧约束都为政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预 期,该行建议重视2026年服务消费元年,伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导,全年维度布局通胀预期 修复与细分景气两条 ...
这个春节,餐饮生意爆了
3 6 Ke· 2026-02-25 03:38
春节最抢手的不是菜,而是服务员? 单店销售额暴涨45倍,翻台率创下近五年新高,2026年春节的餐饮消费比想象中更火爆。 这个春节,一批餐饮人忙疯了! 小红书网友"多加点儿香菜"在海南陵水经营一家清补凉店,她透露,大年初一的营业额是去年同期的一倍,"10000+元的营业额,客单价十几块钱,真的 累疯了,堂食、外卖订单基本全天爆单,大年初一开门40分钟左右,堂食就满桌了。"她发布的监控视频显示,该店内摆放了约8套桌椅,2月17-19日 12:40到21:30,店里基本都是满客状态。 △图片来源:小红书截图 某景区一家中餐馆的店长发帖称,每天8:30到店一直干到23:00,中间还没有休息时间。除了平时的工作,还要顶岗安排兼职、算工时、处理客诉等,"员 工的情绪也很崩溃,哄完这个哄那个,极其累。" 小红书网友"冬霜"表示,春节期间外卖加堂食一天200+订单,从早上8点半开早到晚上10点收市,"太累了。"还有小红书网友表示,"春节期间同一天有4 个员工提出离职,太崩溃了""这个春节最抢手的不是菜,是服务员"...... 事实上,每年春节都是餐饮人最忙的节点之一,今年更是有过之而无不及。归根结底,是今年春节外出旅游、堂食 ...
未知机构:春节假期服务消费跟踪反馈持续更多更新-20260224
未知机构· 2026-02-24 03:20
春节假期服务消费跟踪反馈(持续更多更新。 。 ) #免税: 根据调研,离岛免税春节期间(截止初六)较去年假期同比增长22%左右,增速符合预期,虽然增速较1 月放缓,但结构优化,黄金+手机增速放缓明显(主要受金价波动+手机限购影响),而香化、服饰、精品增速有 所提升,好于12月及1月增速水平,品类毛利稳定略有改善。 ) #免税: 根据调研,离岛免税春节期间(截止初六)较去年假期同比增长22%左右,增速符合预期,虽然增速较1 月放缓,但结构优化,黄金+手机增速放缓明显(主要受金价波动+手机限购影响),而香化、服饰、精品增速有 所提升,好于12月及1月增速水平,品类毛利稳定略有改善。 #黄金珠宝: 根据调研,以华东地区为样本,春节大盘下滑15%以上,潮宏基、周大福保持小双位数增长,其他品 牌下滑20%以上,大盘表现低于预期,主要系三四线城市消费疲软,婚庆需求、客单价表现相对一般,而一二线 城市表现优于三四线市场。 样本加盟商表示26年小幅新增潮宏基门店,小幅关闭或优化其他品牌门店。 #茶饮: 2月古茗单店保持双位数增长态势,春节期间蜜雪单店保持正增长态势。 。 #黄金珠宝: 根据调研 春节假期服务消费跟踪反馈(持续 ...
用年轻人的方式吸引年轻人
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2026-02-23 02:13
——看海南春节消费新趋势③ 需求牵引的时代,谁能抓住年轻人的喜好,谁就能获得流量。对于年轻人的需求、喜好,海南也积 极捕捉、迎合,系列文旅活动新意十足。比如,澄迈、临高、乐东等地的乡村排球、篮球赛成为新 的"村晚",气氛比市集还热闹;正月初五,六台央视春晚同款人形机器人亮相三亚蜈支洲岛,化身新春 送福官与游客互动…… 用年轻人的方式吸引年轻人 今年,海南春节旅游,年轻化是一大趋势。其中,一个显著现象,就是越来越多年轻人当起"春节 主理人",以悦己、个性的姿态,给春节消费带来新变化。 比如,年轻人掌勺年夜饭,端上了"东西南北"融合创意大菜,文昌鸡、鱿鱼、汤粉等有了新拼盘, 口味和寓意兼具;再如,年轻人主理春节仪式,在海口海甸岛,自发组成的摄影小分队,为养老院的爷 爷奶奶们拍摄一组照片,以善意和独特仪式感,给老人们留下了一个难忘的春节…… 如果游客到海口白沙门公园游玩,就有机会邂逅一家由美国的设计师谢敏主理的"海岛乐趣"小店。 她在这里给千年黎锦当"翻译",通过紧跟潮流的的创作,给发夹、耳环、冰箱贴等充满生活气息的小物 件,着上了黎族传统纹样,获得很多游客驻足观赏。 畅玩海南,就会发现,从年夜饭,到民宿、茶饮,再 ...
河南连续两年举办高规格餐叙,释放什么信号
He Nan Ri Bao· 2026-02-21 22:43
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the annual "破五" gathering in Henan, where provincial leaders engage with private enterprise representatives, signaling strong governmental support for the private sector and the commitment to high-quality economic development in the province [2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - On February 21, the provincial leaders hosted a high-profile dinner with 17 representatives from prominent private enterprises in Henan, emphasizing the importance of this traditional event [2][3]. - The participating companies include major players such as Muyuan Foods, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Mijia Ice City, showcasing a diverse range of industries from agriculture to technology [3]. Group 2: Government Support and Policies - The provincial government has implemented a series of measures to promote high-quality development of the private economy, including the release of the "Henan Province Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Private Economy" [5]. - The establishment of a leadership group co-chaired by the provincial governor and secretary aims to ensure the effective implementation of these policies [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Contributions - The private sector in Henan contributes over 55% of the province's GDP, approximately 65% of tax revenue, and 70% of total imports and exports, highlighting its critical role in the local economy [6]. - In 2025, Henan's GDP is projected to exceed 6.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.6%, indicating robust economic performance compared to other major provinces [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The gathering is expected to bolster the confidence of private entrepreneurs in Henan, providing them with the motivation to innovate and expand their market presence [6].
首店纷至!阿图什“消费地图”持续焕新升级
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-21 13:25
走进阿图什市各大商圈,浓郁的烟火气与新潮消费氛围扑面而来:年轻人手持咖啡、奶茶步履匆匆,奔赴一场场好友之约;必胜客门店内,家庭成员围坐 餐桌,欢声笑语萦绕耳畔;特色餐饮店铺前,市民有序排队,只为品尝一口地道风味……2025年,多家知名品牌首店相继落户阿图什,以新鲜业态与多元 服务,悄然改写着这座城市的消费地图,让市民的生活幸福感持续升级。 2025年以来,阿图什市立足市民消费升级需求,将"首店经济"作为推动商业提质增效、激发市场活力的重要抓手,切实把为民办实事落到实处。通过持续 优化营商环境、出台针对性政策支持、强化全程服务保障等一系列务实举措,主动对接各类知名品牌,全力吸引优质商业资源入驻,推动消费市场不断焕 新升级、提质增效,为城市发展注入新动能。 品牌首店的落地生根,带来的不仅是消费选择的丰富,更潜移默化地提升了市民的生活品质和幸福指数。如今在阿图什,周末与家人围坐一堂,共享一顿 美味的披萨大餐;午后约上三五好友,在茶饮店闲谈小聚,搭配上从零食有鸣、好想来选购的特色零食;晚间和亲友相聚,品尝一口地道的卤味火锅…… 这些新鲜的消费场景,已逐渐融入市民的日常生活,为这座城市增添了满满的烟火气与新活力。 自2 ...
马年说马|从马背到铁轨 茶马古道迎新生
Yang Shi Wang· 2026-02-20 20:32
央视网消息:马,在历史上曾是重要的交通运输工具。位于云南普洱的那柯里曾是茶马古道重镇,如今,当马蹄印化作钢铁轨迹, 驼铃声变成汽笛长鸣,马帮文化也迎来了时代新生。 那柯里的变迁:从古驿站到文旅打卡点 在云南省普洱市宁洱县的那柯里茶马驿站景区,青石板上,一串串马蹄印清晰可见。这些凹陷的印记,见证了千百年来无数马匹负 重前行。茶马古道是中国古代西南地区以马帮运输串联起的交通网络,兴于唐宋,盛于明清,连接川滇藏,通达缅甸、越南、老 挝、印度等国家,开展茶叶、盐、药材等货物贸易,促进了西南地区的经贸发展、人文交流以及沿途所经国家的文明互鉴。 荣发马店传承特色马帮文化 荣发马店,曾经是茶马古道上的重要驿站,数百年间为南来北往的马帮提供歇脚、贸易的场地,马店大门前,"关山难越谁为主,萍 水相逢我做东"的楹联保留至今。随着马帮退出历史舞台,这里成为了文旅打卡点,游客在这里骑马重走茶马古道、体验马帮菜、品 尝普洱特色的咖啡和茶饮。 荣发马店负责人 李绍盟:以前的茶马古道上的马都是驮着东西,然后到了晚上它要休息,到我们店里面补给,一直到昆洛公路通 车,马帮慢慢地淡出历史舞台以后,我就开始做饭店,做马帮菜,继承祖上的"马帮菜"事 ...
CPI专题报告:服务消费CPI能否重启上行?
Zhong Guo Yin He Zheng Quan· 2026-02-13 00:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the service CPI sector [2] Core Insights - The service consumption CPI is expected to restart its upward trend, driven by stronger performance compared to overall consumption [7] - The demand for service consumption is resilient, particularly in sectors like tourism and entertainment, which are currently in a phase where prices are more likely to rise than fall [15] - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at boosting consumption, including various initiatives to enhance service quality and expand domestic demand [12] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Service CPI - Service consumption CPI is performing better than overall consumption CPI, indicating a potential for price increases in the service sector [7] 2. Price Increases in Service Sectors - Hotel prices are expected to show elasticity due to supply-demand convergence and anti-monopoly measures [7] - The restaurant sector's ability to pass on costs to consumers is under observation, with Western fast food and tea drinks showing relative advantages [7] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong demand resilience and potential for price increases, particularly in tourism and hospitality [7] 4. Policy Support - Various government policies are outlined, including actions to stimulate consumption and improve service quality, which are expected to support the service sector's growth [12]
中信建投:当下哪些板块值得关注?
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 00:09
Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration have announced a "zero tariff" policy for inbound goods consumed by residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, effective immediately [2] - During the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion trips, setting a new historical record [2] - The duty-free sector is anticipated to see a return to stable profit margins, while the restaurant and hotel sectors are expected to benefit from overall industry value enhancement [1][3] Duty-Free Sector - Hainan has approved 15 duty-free operators, including 6 domestic and 3 foreign companies, with 202 product categories primarily focused on daily necessities [3] - Since the implementation of the new duty-free policy, shopping amounts have exceeded 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [3] - The first month of duty-free sales in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is expected to stabilize and improve by 2026, with a focus on enhancing the overall value chain and operational capabilities [1][7] - The hotel market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with RevPAR showing slight improvements, particularly in tourist-heavy areas like Sanya [7][8] - The overall hotel supply is stabilizing, with a focus on optimizing supply chain and operational efficiency [9] Restaurant Sector - The restaurant industry is entering a phase of supply-side optimization, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand strength [10][12] - The competitive landscape remains intense, with leading brands benefiting from supply chain advantages and operational efficiencies [11][13] - The overall chain rate in the restaurant sector is steadily increasing, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage segment [13] Tourism and Leisure Sector - The tourism sector is a key driver for domestic demand, with policies expected to continue supporting growth through 2026 [15][16] - The upcoming Spring Festival is projected to see significant increases in travel bookings, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% in service reservations [14] - The government aims to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center in Hainan [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Sector - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from the overall quality and brand effect of Chinese manufacturing, with significant market share growth in overseas markets [19] - The U.S. is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may positively impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [19] - Companies are adapting to new competitive environments, leveraging strong supply chains and product quality to drive growth [19][20]