饮料行业集中度提升

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饮料行业系列(三):包装水2025:龙头势强,份额集中
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 12:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beverage industry is expected to continue experiencing intense competition, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage likely to benefit from increased market share [3]. - Nongfu Spring is projected to see steady growth in its bottled water business and sustained high growth in its beverage products, supported by strong brand, channel, and product capabilities [1]. - China Resources Beverage, as a leader in the purified water sector, is focusing on channel expansion and product development, which is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Nongfu Spring - The company is expected to recover its bottled water market share and potentially exceed previous highs due to its strong brand and product capabilities [1]. - The beverage segment is diversified with high-growth products like sugar-free tea "Oriental Leaf" and functional drinks "Scream" and "Power Emperor Vitamin Water," which align with health trends [1]. - As of July 21, 2025, the company's PE(TTM) is 38.01X, with a five-year average of 54.25X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1]. China Resources Beverage - The company is solidifying its position in the purified water market while expanding into new channels such as dining and family segments [2]. - The introduction of sub-brands focusing on natural and mineral water is expected to drive market share recovery [2]. - The company's PE(TTM) is 17.97X, suggesting a significant valuation gap compared to Nongfu Spring, with potential for both performance and valuation improvement [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage due to their competitive advantages and growth potential [3]. - Additionally, it suggests monitoring Eastroc Beverage for its strong growth attributes and Uni-President China for its high dividend yield [3].