智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，维持华润饮料(02460)"增持"评级。中长期看，水依旧是能够 穿越经营周期的刚需品类，公司深耕多年优势明确，同时高度重视饮料业务发展，收入整体有望恢复增 长。此外，在自产比例提升和代工比例下降的推动下，公司利润率提升逻辑明晰。 报告中称，华润饮料重视香港市场，保持经营稳定。公司迁册主要是基于以下考量：1)香港政府已引入 公司迁册制度，即可保留法律上的法人地位，也可确保业务运作的持续性，可减少跨国合规的复杂 性;2)香港的法治传统强调公平性、一致性和司法独立性，香港经营环境的稳定性和可预测性更为确 定;3)有助于公司进一步扎根香港，加强本地和国际投资者对公司的信心。除产生一定开支外，迁册不 会改变公司的相关资产、投资、管理和财务状况等，公司将继续保持稳健经营发展。 具体业务看，包装水方面，公司坚持好水不分水种的发展理念，致力于多品牌多水种发展，重点发力怡 宝和本优品牌。饮料方面，25H1公司推出14款新品SKU，致力于第二曲线打造：1)茶饮料方面，重点 培育至本清润、佐味茶事、愿事之茗、午后奶茶;2)果汁方面，重点发力蜜水和假日系列;3)其他饮料方 面，主要包括运动饮料 ...

具体业务看，包装水方面，公司坚持好水不分水种的发展理念，致力于多品牌多水种发展，重点发力怡 宝和本优品牌。饮料方面，25H1公司推出14款新品SKU，致力于第二曲线打造：1)茶饮料方面，重点 培育至本清润、佐味茶事、愿事之茗、午后奶茶;2)果汁方面，重点发力蜜水和假日系列;3)其他饮料方 面，主要包括运动饮料魔力和咖啡饮料焰焙。 报告中称，华润饮料重视香港市场，保持经营稳定。公司迁册主要是基于以下考量：1)香港政府已引入 公司迁册制度，即可保留法律上的法人地位，也可确保业务运作的持续性，可减少跨国合规的复杂 性;2)香港的法治传统强调公平性、一致性和司法独立性，香港经营环境的稳定性和可预测性更为确 定;3)有助于公司进一步扎根香港，加强本地和国际投资者对公司的信心。除产生一定开支外，迁册不 会改变公司的相关资产、投资、管理和财务状况等，公司将继续保持稳健经营发展。 国盛证券发布研报称，维持华润饮料(02460)"增持"评级。中长期看，水依旧是能够穿越经营周期的刚 需品类，公司深耕多年优势明确，同时高度重视饮料业务发展，收入整体有望恢复增长。此外，在自产 比例提升和代工比例下降的推动下，公司利润率提升逻辑明晰。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a strong tourism data during the National Day holiday, with cross-border tourism consumption being a significant highlight, while box office performance was relatively weak [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter earnings reports will focus on four main areas: benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand in non-ferrous metals, price stabilization in steel, coal, chemicals, and photovoltaics, steady growth in automotive, lithium batteries, electricity, and logistics, and AI-related sectors driven by domestic and international demand [3][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the overall revenue of the real estate development industry shrank by 14.9% year-on-year to 1.54 trillion yuan, with a net profit loss of 867 billion yuan, marking a 157.2% decline [11] - The report emphasizes that 2025 will see a continued focus on policy-driven growth in the real estate sector, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in leading companies and those with strong fundamentals [12] Group 3: Company Insights - The report discusses China Resources Beverage's decision to relocate its registered office to Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational stability and investor confidence [15] - The company aims to strengthen its product matrix by focusing on multiple brands and water types, with plans to launch 14 new products in the beverage sector [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) with a target price of 15 HKD [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion HKD for H1 2025, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 805 million HKD, down 28.63% year-on-year. The report highlights that the company is facing temporary operational pressure but emphasizes the importance of operational adjustments and beverage product development for long-term growth [1][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.521 billion HKD, with a decline to 11.872 billion HKD in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 13.069 billion HKD in 2026E and 14.052 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 1.637 billion HKD in 2024 to 1.286 billion HKD in 2025E, before rising to 1.620 billion HKD in 2026E and 1.907 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.54 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.7 [3][14]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 44.65%, indicating a moderate level of debt [4]. - **H1 2025 Performance**: - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 13.26%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Business Segment Performance - **Beverage and Packaging Water**: - The packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 23.11% to 5.251 billion HKD, while the beverage segment grew by 21.28% to 955 million HKD in H1 2025. The report notes that the company is focusing on product series such as "Benqingrun" and "Moli Water" to drive growth [8][9]. - **Cost Management**: - The report indicates that while raw material prices have decreased, the overall revenue decline has weakened scale effects, leading to increased costs in sales and marketing efforts [8][9]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that despite the current operational challenges, the long-term growth logic remains intact. The company is focusing on inventory optimization, channel adjustments, and the introduction of new beverage products to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production efficiency improvements and the development of new beverage lines as key factors for future profitability [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The market has undervalued China Resources Beverage's (华润饮料) mid-year performance for 2025, despite a significant drop in revenue and net profit, indicating a strategic shift towards long-term growth and resilience [1][2][19] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.205 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.823 billion yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 2.6 percentage points but remained high at 46.7% [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation from a single packaging water focus to a dual-driven model of "water + beverages," with significant investments aimed at long-term growth [2][19] - In the first half of 2025, the company invested 1.884 billion yuan in distribution and sales expenses, accounting for 30.36% of revenue, an increase of approximately 3 percentage points from the previous year [3][4] Market Position and Growth - Despite industry challenges, the company has shown strong strategic determination and innovation, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 24.6% in net profit from 2021 to 2024, significantly outperforming the industry average [3] - The beverage segment has become a new growth engine, with revenue of 0.955 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%, and its revenue share rising to 15.4% [5] Production and Cost Management - The company is focusing on cost control through a dual strategy of expanding self-owned production capacity and upgrading cooperative production [8] - The self-owned production capacity is projected to increase from 35% in 2023 to 60% by 2025, enhancing cost control and reducing reliance on external manufacturers [9] Marketing and Sales Strategy - The marketing strategy has shifted towards precision targeting, focusing on e-commerce, family, and dining channels, with a data-driven approach to promotional spending [10] - The company has launched 14 new SKUs in 2025, covering various beverage categories, indicating a strong commitment to product innovation [4][5] Investor Sentiment - Following the profit warning, the stock has seen a significant inflow of funds, with net inflows reaching 50.967 million yuan, indicating investor confidence in the company's long-term strategy [16] - The company has declared an interim dividend of 0.118 yuan per share, totaling 280 million yuan, reflecting its strong liquidity and commitment to shareholder returns [17] Long-term Outlook - The current performance dip is viewed as a strategic choice to enhance future profitability and market positioning, with expectations of improved margins and revenue growth in the beverage segment [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition and changes in marketing strategies [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.805 billion yuan, down 28.63% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Packaging Water Business - The packaging water business generated revenue of 5.251 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 23.11% year-on-year, accounting for 84.6% of total revenue [1] - Revenue from small, medium, large, and barrel water was 3.194 billion, 1.829 billion, and 0.228 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -26.22%, -19.37%, and -1.51% respectively [1] - The decline in packaging water revenue was attributed to reduced sales volume, increased marketing resource investment, and channel optimization adjustments [1] Group 3: Beverage Business - The beverage business reported revenue of 0.955 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 21.29% year-on-year, representing 15.4% of total revenue [2] - The company launched 14 new SKU products, focusing on tea beverages, juice, and other drinks [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased by 2.92, 0.43, and 0.00 percentage points respectively, leading to a net profit margin of 12.97%, down 1.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The board of directors announced an interim dividend of 0.118 yuan per share, payable in Hong Kong dollars at approximately 0.129 yuan per share [2] Group 5: Investment Outlook - Short-term performance is pressured by intensified competition in the packaging water and beverage sectors, while long-term growth potential remains due to the essential nature of water and the company's focus on beverage development [3] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.33 billion, 1.60 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.0%, +20.5%, and +19.2% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit decline of 20% to 30% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 due to increased marketing investments and product adjustments [1] - The company is strategically increasing marketing resources and adjusting product mix to support long-term development, which is impacting short-term profitability [1] - The company is implementing cost control measures and optimizing operations to mitigate negative impacts on profitability [1] Group 2 - The company is a leader in the purified water industry, focusing on channel cultivation, network expansion, and targeting new channels such as dining and households [2] - The company is developing its second sub-brand, focusing on natural and mineral water, with an expected recovery in packaged water market share [2] - The company aims to enhance its net profit margin through increased self-production and reduced outsourcing costs, benefiting from cost reductions in PET and sugar [2] Group 3 - The board anticipates declaring a mid-term dividend by mid-2025, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns and a sustainable financial position [2] - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage sectors, alongside channel reforms [3] - Long-term profit growth is anticipated as the company continues to focus on beverage business development and improves profit margins through increased self-production [3]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" due to short-term performance pressure [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a net profit decline of 20% to 30% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to increased marketing investments and product adjustments aimed at long-term growth [1]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong position in the pure water industry and is focusing on expanding its market presence in the restaurant and household segments [2]. - The company is actively working on enhancing its product portfolio, particularly in the beverage sector, with a focus on high-potential products [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and reduced outsourcing costs, alongside cost benefits from raw materials [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 12,778 million RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 1,299 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 20.6% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.54 RMB, down from 0.68 RMB in 2024 [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on channel refinement and market expansion, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, to drive growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products under the "Ben You" series is aimed at capturing market share in the natural and mineral water segments [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board is committed to providing sustainable returns to shareholders, with plans to declare interim dividends based on a solid financial position and retained earnings [2].

Group 1 - The company is a leading player in the domestic packaged drinking water industry, becoming the second-largest packaged drinking water and the largest pure water enterprise in China, with its core brand "Yibao" maintaining a significant market share [1] - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-product platform, which is expected to drive future growth [1] - The revenue from the company's large and medium-sized bottled water segment is projected to reach 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 34.1% of total revenue, with a CAGR of 9.9% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its production capacity to support its national strategy, with new factories and production lines established in key regions, which will enhance overall capacity and reduce supply bottlenecks [2] - The company is increasing its self-built production capacity, reducing reliance on outsourcing, and optimizing its supply chain to lower packaging material costs, leading to an expected gross margin improvement of approximately 2.6 percentage points to 47.3% in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company has a strong channel network and sales team, covering over two million retail outlets across the country, with a retail terminal coverage rate increasing from 50.6% in 2021 to 77.2% in 2024 [3] - The company has achieved significant growth in e-commerce channels and lower-tier markets, with coverage in third-tier cities and below rising from 51.2% to 57.2% from 2021 to 2024 [3] Group 4 - Revenue projections for the company are 14.54 billion yuan in 2025, 15.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.54 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 7.5%, 6.7%, and 6.6% respectively [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.99 billion yuan in 2025, 2.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.52 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth of 21.5%, 14.5%, and 10.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$18.10, representing a potential upside of 38% from the current price of HK$13.10 [2]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage is a leading player in the packaged drinking water industry, holding the position of the second-largest packaged drinking water company and the largest in pure drinking water in China. The core brand "Yibao" has maintained a leading market share, contributing approximately 90% to the company's revenue [3][8]. - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-product platform, with significant growth expected in the beverage segment, which currently accounts for about 10% of total revenue but shows promising growth potential [3][30]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity and optimizing its supply chain, which is expected to improve gross margins. The gross profit margin is projected to increase to 47.3% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2023 [4][36]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 14.54 billion in 2025 to RMB 16.54 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 6.7%, and 6.6% respectively. Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1.99 billion in 2025 to RMB 2.52 billion in 2027, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.95, and RMB 1.05 [2][5]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has a strong channel network, covering over 2 million retail outlets across China, with a significant increase in retail coverage from 50.6% in 2021 to 77.2% in 2024. The company is also focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities and e-commerce platforms [5][44]. - The growth of large-sized bottled water products has outpaced the industry, with a CAGR of 9.9% from 2021 to 2024, making it a key growth driver for the company [3][31]. Cost Management and Margin Improvement - The company has been optimizing its cost structure, with a focus on increasing self-built production capacity to reduce reliance on outsourcing. This strategy is expected to enhance cost control and product quality consistency [4][48]. - The gross margin has improved due to a decrease in raw material costs, particularly PET, which is projected to stabilize in the future [36][37]. Strategic Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production facilities in key regions, including Guangdong and Fujian, to enhance its national coverage and eliminate supply bottlenecks [4][48]. - The strategic focus on sports marketing and partnerships with major events is expected to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement, further driving growth [46][47].