库存方面，该行预计库存量将由2025年的高峰开始回落，但下降速度将较为缓慢。自2025年4月以来， 发展商一直保持着稳定的一手销量，每月约有1600至2200宗一手成交。该行又预计到2026年底，库存量 将降至2万个单位以下。展望未来，随着库存量减少数千个单位，发展商可能会减少折扣优惠，这将支 撑香港楼价持续上升。 世邦魏理仕预期2026年交易量将同比增10%，总交易量将达到6.5万至7万宗。一手销售预计将超过2万 宗，乐观估计每月平均销售量将超过2000宗。同时，二手销售量预计将超过4.5万宗，月均销售量将超 过3500宗。 世邦魏理仕香港估值及咨询服务部执行董事郭伟恩表示，截至11月，香港的楼价已上涨2.8%，租金亦 从年初上升了4.3%，与世邦魏理仕于年初时的预测相符。他指出，经过连续三年下跌，香港住宅市场 已经触底反弹，显示买家已重拾信心，基本面普遍走强。他预计2026年楼价的增长将比2025年高，预计 增长约3%至5%。他又指，租金已经创历史新高，预计2026年将持续上升，但增幅低于楼价，预计增长 率约2%至3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential property market is expected to bottom out and gradually recover by 2026, despite the absence of new easing measures in the recent policy report [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department released the private residential property price index for August [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 0.25% on September 18, major banks in Hong Kong lowered their best lending rates by 0.125%, which is anticipated to attract more buyers to the residential market [1] - The recent surge in the Hang Seng Index has created a more optimistic atmosphere in the Hong Kong property market, with a historical correlation between the index and property prices, typically with a lag of 2-3 months [1] Group 2: Rental Market Outlook - CBRE forecasts that residential rental prices in Hong Kong will continue to rise, although growth may slow in the short term due to the start of the new academic year for universities [1] - The Hong Kong government's efforts to attract high-quality talent and develop the city as an international higher education hub are expected to benefit residential leasing, leading to increased demand [1]