Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to show initial signs of stabilization in the first half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and a favorable rental yield environment, despite ongoing high inventory levels and short-term focus on destocking by property developers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a pulse-like recovery due to policy easing, with mainland Chinese buyers accounting for 24% of new and second-hand transactions in 2024, although the residential price index is projected to decline by 7.1% in 2024 [2]. - As of August 2025, the private residential price index has only slightly decreased by 0.24% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stabilization trend [2][5]. - The transaction volumes for new and second-hand homes in Hong Kong increased by 13.9% and 13.8% respectively from January to August 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The recovery of the financial sector is crucial for the overall economic rebound in Hong Kong, with a 3.1% year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025 and a 43% increase in new insurance premiums in Q1 2025 [3]. - The low interest rate environment, with mortgage rates dropping to around 2% in mid-2025, has made housing more attractive compared to rental yields, which are estimated to be between 1.8% and 2.7% [4][5]. Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The implementation of the "Talent Scheme" has led to an influx of approximately 350,000 talents and their families into Hong Kong, boosting rental demand and resulting in a 6% increase in the private residential rental index in 2023 [4]. - The rental yield has increased due to falling property prices and rising rents, with smaller units (under 100 square meters) showing higher rental yields of 2.2% to 2.7% [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Sales Strategy - There is significant pressure to reduce inventory in the new housing market, with a potential supply of 101,000 units over the next three to four years and approximately 27,000 completed but unsold units [6]. - The strategy of "price for volume" is being adopted in the new housing market, with projects like SIERRASEA launching at prices below market expectations to stimulate sales [7]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Swire Properties (01972), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Kerry Properties (00683) as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [8].

中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰表示，市民入市信心明显回升，带动一手市场表现理想。今 年首九个月一手成交量突破15000宗，较2022年全年9200宗及2023年全年10790宗，分别大增63%及 39%。累计成交量已达去年全年15839宗的95%，全年有望突破20000宗，不仅超越去年水平，更有机会 创下自2013年一手住宅新例实施以来的新高纪录。 陈永杰指出，随着减息周期展开，发展商将加快推售步伐，并以贴近市价策略吸引买家。他预计，今年 底一手货尾量有望回落至约18000个单位。部分于楼市高峰期推出的楼花项目，近期转为现楼并下调售 价两至三成，加快去库存并刺激交投。9月份一手市场暂录逾1500宗成交，其中逾六成属现楼，涉及近 1000个单位。已届现楼的将军澳日出康城凯柏峰系列，9月录得逾130宗成交，是本月全香港成交量最多 新盘。 与今年1月相比，各区一手货尾量出现明显变化，其中以新界西跌幅最为显著，由4147个单位减至2902 个单位，减少约30%。九龙区紧随其后，货尾量由12763个单位降至10556个单位，跌幅达17%。港岛区 亦录得轻微回落，由3676个单位减至3374个单位，跌幅约8.2% ...