Workflow
马棕减产去库
icon
Search documents
宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2026年2月4日)-20260204
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 01:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal market, although US soybeans have recovered some losses, the global ample supply is pressuring the market. With the increasing soybean harvest rate in Brazil and the expected record - high yield, China may shift to purchasing from Brazil. The annual cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has decreased by 35.7%, and the weekly export to China has dropped by 18%. In the domestic market, downstream demand has declined as the pre - holiday stocking nears the end. The soybean meal price will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, with the near - month contracts under significant pressure, and the far - month contracts need to focus on the impact of marginal changes in supply and demand [5]. - For the palm oil market, Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction and inventory - depletion cycle. India's palm oil imports in January soared by 51% to a four - month high, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Indonesia plans to restrict the export of palm oil waste to ensure domestic raw materials, reducing the international market supply and supporting the palm oil price. The weekly commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils has decreased. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, and the futures price fluctuates widely [7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The global ample supply, the high harvest rate and expected record - high yield in South American Brazil, the possible shift of China's purchase to Brazil, the decline in US soybean export inspection volume and export to China, and the weakening domestic demand near the end of pre - holiday stocking lead to the weakly oscillating pattern of soybean meal price. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the far - month contracts need to focus on supply - demand marginal changes [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction and inventory - depletion cycle. India's increased imports and Indonesia's export - restriction policy reduce the international supply. The decline in domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils also supports the price. In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and capital, and the futures price fluctuates widely [7]. Other Information - For the calculation of price changes, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is used as the starting price; for varieties without night trading, the previous day's closing price is used as the starting price, and the day - trading closing price is used as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. The strongly/weakly oscillating views are only for intraday, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4].