Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The South American soybean harvest is progressing well, with Brazil's harvest nearing completion and Argentina's crop quality improving after rainfall, putting pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and spot buyers are advised to actively set prices at lower prices, while paying attention to the release of the estimated planting area of US soybeans at the end of the month [1]. - The US biofuel policy provides medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect is weakened due to market expectations and postponed import restrictions. Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - diesel blend ratio to 50% has led to a sharp rise in palm oil prices, but the implementation still takes time, and crude oil prices are the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of March 27, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 72.99%, up from 65.79% a week ago, lower than 81.31% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 73.95%. Rainfall in some parts of Brazil is expected to decrease in the coming days, which will help speed up field operations [1]. - As of the week of March 25, 2026, the rainfall in Argentina's agricultural areas helped improve the soybean crop rating. Currently, 82% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, up from 78% a week ago and 76% in the same period last year. 85% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 79% a week ago and the same as last year. The improvement is mainly due to the better condition of late - sown soybeans. For early - sown soybeans, 41% of the area has entered the maturity stage, and more than 60% in the two major core production areas have entered the maturity stage, and the harvest will be fully carried out in the next few days [1]. Oils - The US Environmental Protection Agency has issued a new rule, increasing the renewable fuel obligation targets in 2026 and 2027 by more than 60% compared to 2025, and raising the proportion of the fuel quota allocated to large refineries from small refineries' exemptions from 50% to 70%, which provides medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect is weakened [2]. - Indonesia's President announced that the palm - diesel blend ratio will be increased from 40% to 50% this year to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Middle East situation, leading to a sharp rise in palm oil and Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 still takes time, and crude oil prices are the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 10, the soybean market showed a pattern of external strength and internal stability, with a pre - holiday quiet atmosphere. The international market saw a slight increase in US soybean futures as traders adjusted their positions before the USDA supply - demand report, but the expected record - high Brazilian harvest was a major pressure on price rebounds. In the domestic market, as the Spring Festival approached, oil mills gradually shut down, and spot trading became sluggish. Although the cost of imported soybeans supported the price of soybean meal, high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at domestic ports and potential supply pressure after the festival led to a cautious market outlook, and the soybean meal futures price remained in a volatile pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the soybean market is under the dual pressure of South American bumper harvests and high domestic inventories, and the short - term volatile pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - The oil market overall showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The MPOB data showed that the January inventory of Malaysian palm oil decreased more than expected, but the positive impact was quickly digested by the market. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the holiday, the palm oil futures price fell again. Although the seasonal production decline of Malaysian palm oil in January was significant and exports increased due to improved cost - effectiveness, the market had fully priced in the inventory decline expectation, and the production and inventory in January remained at a high level. There is still pressure on the rebound of BMD crude palm oil futures. India has restocking demand before Ramadan, so Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to continue to increase. The domestic oil market has no obvious positive driving factors, and trading is light before the holiday. The inventory of the three major edible oils decreased slightly last week, and the market has basically digested the impact of Canadian canola purchases. Before the holiday, the market is highly watchful, and with weakening fund support, the oil market has shifted to a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **USDA Supply - Demand Report**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the supply - demand report early on Wednesday Beijing time. The market will closely watch whether US soybean export data will be increased. US soybean crushing demand remains strong, with the crushing volume as of the end of December 7.5% higher than the same period in the 2024/25 season, and the USDA predicts an annual growth of 5%. Analysts surveyed by Wall Street predict the US soybean ending inventory to be 348 million bushels. In terms of global supply - demand balance, Brazil's soybean harvest progress is one of the fastest in recent years, with 40% of the harvest in Mato Grosso completed. Analysts predict that the Brazilian soybean production will be increased by 1.2 million tons to 179.2 million tons this month, and there is a possibility of the production exceeding 180 million tons. In Argentina, due to the January drought, the soybean growth situation has declined, but since only a relatively small proportion of soybeans are in the pod - setting stage, there is still time to reverse the situation. The USDA may maintain the production forecast of 48.5 million tons [7]. - **US Soybean Exports to China**: According to the USDA's weekly export inspection report, last week, the quantity of US soybeans exported to China increased by 1% compared with the previous week and 35% compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 5, 2026, the US shipped 747,198 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared with 740,004 tons in the previous week, 554,661 tons in the same period in 2025, and 814,103 tons in the same period in 2024. The proportion of US soybean export inspections to China in the total that week was 68.8%, up from 56.5% last week and 67.8% two weeks ago [8]. - **Soybean Pressing Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the total soybean pressing volume of the three major soybean - exporting countries (Brazil, the US, and Argentina) will reach a new high of 366.4 million tons, a 16.1% increase from 315.6 million tons in the 2022/23 season. In the past twenty years, Brazil's soybean pressing volume has almost doubled. The USDA's January supply - demand report shows that the global ending inventory/usage ratio of soybean oil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be only 8.6%. The US soybean pressing volume in December was 230 million bushels, higher than 221 million bushels in November and 218 million bushels in December 2024. It is expected that the US soybean pressing volume in the 2025/26 season will easily reach the USDA's forecast of 2.57 billion bushels, setting a new record [9]. - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.99 per bushel, a 4.18% increase compared with the previous week. In 2025, the average pressing profit was $2.46 per bushel, higher than $2.44 per bushel in 2024. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was $307.39 per short ton, equivalent to $7.15 per bushel. The truck - delivery price of crude soybean oil in Iowa was 54.82 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.47 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.88, up from $10.65 per bushel a week ago [10]. - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress**: As of February 6, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season reached 39.61% of the planted area, 14.64% higher than a week ago and 11.03% higher than the same period last year. Among different regions in Mato Grosso, the central - northern region led with a 58.63% harvest rate, followed by the northern region (50.72%), the western region (49.74%), and the north - western region (44.19%). The harvest rates in the central - southern, north - eastern, and south - eastern regions were 29.63%, 23.02%, and 19.71% respectively. As of February 5, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 16%, up from 10% last week and 15% in the same period last year. AgRural predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons from the December 22 prediction and a 5.54% increase from the 2024/25 season [11][12]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Report**: On February 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board released the January supply - demand monthly report. The core data were better than market expectations. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of January decreased by 7.72% month - on - month to 2.815 million tons, significantly lower than the analysts' estimate of 2.91 million tons. The crude palm oil production decreased by 13.78% from the previous month to 1.577 million tons, also lower than the expected 1.61 million tons. The export volume increased by 11.44% month - on - month to 1.484 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.42 million tons. The greater - than - expected decline in production and strong export growth led to a larger inventory decline, reflecting the dual benefits of supply contraction and demand improvement [13]. 2. Spot Market Prices | Variety | Grade/Indicator | Price (Yuan/ton) | Change from the Previous Day (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans (Dalian) | Imported Second - Class | 3950 | 0 | | Soybeans (Average Price) | —— | 4072 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Zhangjiagang) | ≥43% | 3060 | - 20 | | Soybean Meal (Average Price) | —— | 3152 | - 2 | | Soybean Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Fourth - Grade | 8560 | - 80 | | Soybean Oil (Average Price) | —— | 8575 | - 26 | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 24 - Degree | 9050 | - 10 | | Palm Oil (Average Price) | —— | 9076 | - 10 | | Rapeseed Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Imported Fourth - Grade | 9970 | + 30 | | Rapeseed Oil (Average Price) | —— | 10076 | + 30 | [14] 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits | Location | Soybeans | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jiang (Domestic) | 4100 | 3320 | 8630 | - 4.00 | | (Domestic) | 4160 | 3180 | 8440 | - 210.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3180 | 8440 | 19.90 | | (Domestic) | 4260 | 3160 | 8420 | - 330.60 | | (Imported) | 3940 | 3160 | 8420 | 10.40 | | (Domestic) | 4400 | 3080 | 8470 | - 526.00 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | Port (Imported) | 3920 | 3060 | 8560 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3060 | 8590 | - 52.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3050 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3080 | 8470 | - 22.90 | | (Imported) | 3950 | 3080 | 8290 | - 52.90 | | (Imported) | 3920 | 3100 | 8490 | - 52.90 | [16] 4. Related Charts - The report mentions several charts including soybean port inventory, soybean disk pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart - related analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal market, although US soybeans have recovered some losses, the global ample supply is pressuring the market. With the increasing soybean harvest rate in Brazil and the expected record - high yield, China may shift to purchasing from Brazil. The annual cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has decreased by 35.7%, and the weekly export to China has dropped by 18%. In the domestic market, downstream demand has declined as the pre - holiday stocking nears the end. The soybean meal price will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, with the near - month contracts under significant pressure, and the far - month contracts need to focus on the impact of marginal changes in supply and demand [5]. - For the palm oil market, Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction and inventory - depletion cycle. India's palm oil imports in January soared by 51% to a four - month high, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Indonesia plans to restrict the export of palm oil waste to ensure domestic raw materials, reducing the international market supply and supporting the palm oil price. The weekly commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils has decreased. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, and the futures price fluctuates widely [7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The global ample supply, the high harvest rate and expected record - high yield in South American Brazil, the possible shift of China's purchase to Brazil, the decline in US soybean export inspection volume and export to China, and the weakening domestic demand near the end of pre - holiday stocking lead to the weakly oscillating pattern of soybean meal price. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the far - month contracts need to focus on supply - demand marginal changes [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction and inventory - depletion cycle. India's increased imports and Indonesia's export - restriction policy reduce the international supply. The decline in domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils also supports the price. In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and capital, and the futures price fluctuates widely [7]. Other Information - For the calculation of price changes, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is used as the starting price; for varieties without night trading, the previous day's closing price is used as the starting price, and the day - trading closing price is used as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. The strongly/weakly oscillating views are only for intraday, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. For conservative investors, it's recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2] - Due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the entire edible oil sector declined, and the EU's resistance to imported biodiesel also dampened biodiesel demand. However, the U.S. biofuel policy nearing implementation is the biggest support factor for edible oils. Before the policy is officially implemented, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Spot traders can consider taking basis at appropriate price drops, and the market needs to pay attention to the guidance from the implementation of the U.S. biofuel policy [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - As of January 29, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 10%, compared with 4.9% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Almost all soybean - producing states have started harvesting, and there are no major harvest delays reported, but attention is turning to the high - temperature and drought weather in southern Brazil and Mato Grosso do Sul [1] - As of the week of January 29, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons, compared with 1,140,431 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season reached 21,991,461 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.7%, and the U.S. soybean exports so far in the 2025/26 season have reached 51.3% of the annual export target [1] 3.2. Edible Oils - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026 were 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian president plans to ban the export of palm oil waste to support domestic biodiesel and aviation fuel production and reduce energy import dependence [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in large - scale samples across the country was 2.2827 million tons, a decrease of 68,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.90%; a year - on - year increase of 17,100 tons, an increase of 0.75% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that in the short - term, the meal products are bearish, while in the long - term, they are bullish. This is due to the combined influence of factors such as Sino - US and Sino - Canadian tariffs, the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of the domestic market [3][37]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Sino - US and Sino - Canadian Tariffs - Sino - US short - term truce: In October 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides reached a trade "cease - fire" agreement. The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff was suspended for another year. China adjusted its counter - measures accordingly. The US also suspended the implementation of its "50% penetration rule" for export control for one year, and China suspended relevant counter - measures for one year. The two sides also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises [7]. - Sino - Canadian tariffs returned to the level before the conflict. - Potential conflicts in tariffs and trade policies still exist: The possibility of direct confrontation between the US and China is extremely small, but there are still uncertainties in the import of US soybeans, South American soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed in the future [10]. 3.2 Bumper Harvest of South American Soybeans, Short - term Pressure on Meal Products - Brazilian soybeans have completely replaced US soybeans in the Chinese export market. - The bumper harvest of South American soybeans is gradually being realized, putting short - term pressure on meal products. The report provides data on the soybean yields of the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2016 - 2025, as well as the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months. It also shows that the import volume of soybeans has decreased recently, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have continued to decline, the procurement of domestic downstream enterprises has rebounded from a low level, the inventory of soybeans and meal products in oil mills has continued to decline, the pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and continued to decline month - on - month, the pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, the piglet price has rebounded slightly, the domestic pig farming profit is slightly profitable, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [11][16][17]. 3.3 Short - term Bearish and Long - term Bullish for Meal Products - Factors putting pressure on bean prices: The listing of South American soybeans and the expected inventory accumulation of oil mills due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. - Uncertain factors: Whether there will be weather speculation as the weather has been good for soybeans in the past three years. - Bullish factors: The planting area of new - season US soybeans may be further reduced, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans will be high in the future, with medium - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the domestic pig farming scale first decreases and then increases [38][40]. 3.4 Overall Judgment of Other Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products, except for oils and fats, are at near - decade lows. - There is an upward trend in agricultural protection policies in various countries. - Agricultural products have the characteristics that supply elasticity is greater than demand elasticity, with cost - line support and potential supply - side weather speculation. - The pig industry is in the final stage of capacity elimination, and the inventory of pigs and sows is close to the regulatory target. The far - month premium of pigs is unfavorable for bulls. Among oils and fats, palm oil is the strongest, with an enhanced linkage between crude oil prices and oil prices, different planting cycles of palm oil compared to soybean and rapeseed oils, and inconsistent biodiesel policies in the US and Indonesia [49][50][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near - term supply of soybean meal still has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. Near - term soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts strengthen slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent but cannot provide long - term upward drive. The pressure brought by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains large. It is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and the market is slightly bearish on the futures price [2]. - After the previous rise, the price increase of the oil sector restricts demand to some extent. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy in early March, which may bring additional upward drive to the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The Brazilian Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.124 million tons, compared with 171.481 million tons in the previous season. Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach 111.5 million tons, up from 108.2 million tons in 2025. Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 is expected to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than 58.5 million tons in 2025. The ending inventory of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.195 million tons, compared with 7.071 million tons in the previous season [1]. - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that private exporters reported the sale of 192,350 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean marketing year starts on September 1 [1]. Oil - The Speaker of the US House of Representatives is discussing whether to include a clause allowing the year - round sale of E15 ethanol - gasoline in a supplementary spending bill being promoted by the Senate to help farmers cope with tariff impacts, or pass a separate House bill in the next few weeks [2]. - According to data from the Canadian Grain Commission, as of the week ending January 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 155.95% from the previous week to 288,200 tons, compared with 112,600 tons in the previous week. As of January 18, Canada's rapeseed exports in the 2025 - 26 season were 3.2097 million tons, a 37.42% decrease from 5.1293 million tons in the same period of the previous season [2].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - January 12, 2026 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 37 to close at 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 27 to close at 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 0.4% decrease [5][8]. - The external market stopped falling and stabilized. The market is waiting for the upcoming USDA report, and funds are adjusting their positions. Currently, it is expected that both yield and exports may be lowered. Pay attention to the guidance of the report. The meal market is generally oscillating, with soybean meal relatively stronger than rapeseed meal. The main reason is that the Prime Minister of Canada will visit China, and market rumors suggest that the additional tariff on rapeseed meal may be cancelled. Driven by sentiment, funds increased short positions, causing rapeseed meal to weaken. On the one hand, the arrival of soybeans has decreased month - on - month, and on the other hand, the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provides support for the near - term price of soybean meal [5][8]. - The Prime Minister of Canada is about to visit China, and rapeseed meal has weakened under the influence of sentiment. Pay attention to the progress of China - Canada trade agreements. The January USDA report in the United States is expected to show possible decreases in yield and exports, with little change in ending stocks. Funds are adjusting positions and waiting for the report. The external US soybean market has stopped falling and is oscillating. The good weather in South America continues, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest has increased. The expected decrease in domestic soybean arrivals and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand support the spot price, which is relatively firm. The auction of state - reserved imported soybeans restarted this week, cooling the market to some extent. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate in the short term [5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT March soybean contract price rose from 1047.25 to 1062.75 cents per bushel, a 1.48% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose from 443 to 450 dollars per ton, a 1.58% increase; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans remained unchanged at 475 dollars per ton; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from 57.12 to 49.51 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract price rose from 2749 to 2786 yuan per ton, a 1.35% increase; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract price fell from 2365 to 2338 yuan per ton, a 1.14% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased from 384 to 448 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China rose from 3120 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 0.64% increase; the spot price in South China rose from 3080 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 1.95% increase; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 331 to 354 yuan per ton [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - In the US, for the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 87.8 tons, down from 117.8 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 2857.6 tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared to 79.2% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 47 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 689.3 tons and an unshipped volume of 570.1 tons. A private exporter reported selling 13.2 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [9]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending January 3, 2026, the soybean planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 98.2%, up from 97.9% the previous week, compared to 98.5% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 97.6%. The harvesting work has begun, with a progress of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean export loading volume in January is 240 tons [9][10]. - According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week ending January 7, 2026, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 88.3%, up from 82% the previous week, compared to 97% in the same period last year [10]. - The weather forecast for South American producing areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than the average, and the precipitation process will continue, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The soil moisture in Argentine producing areas has declined, but the overall situation is still good. The cumulative precipitation in Argentine producing areas in the next two weeks will be lower than the average level. Continuously monitor the weather changes [10]. - As of the week ending January 2, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 710.25 tons, an increase of 55.81 tons from the previous week and 115.8 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 117.02 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous week and 48.66 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 579.8 tons, an increase of 198.2 tons from the previous week and 81.1 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 823.6 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week but an increase of 52.74 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending January 9, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 30.5417 tons, including 7.675 tons of spot trading and 22.8667 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume the previous week was 20.44 tons. The daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 17.385 tons, compared to 18.22 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 176.58 tons, compared to 175.33 tons the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.53 days, compared to 9.4 days the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - The Safras & Mercado institution stated that factors such as oversupply in South America, the US production outlook, and geopolitical uncertainties will affect the soybean price trend in 2026. Looking forward to 2026, the soybean market will have sufficient supply, and the short - term price will face downward pressure, while the support provided by the premium of Brazilian soybeans will be relatively reduced [12]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that farmers' pace of selling soybeans has slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the pre - sold volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 465 tons, compared to 337 tons in the same period last year. The sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4157 tons, compared to 3562 tons in the same period last year [12]. - The ANEC institution predicted that due to increased competition from the US, Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will drop to 77 million tons, about 10 million tons less than 87 million tons in 2025. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will still reach a record 112 million tons, compared to about 109 million tons in 2025 [12]. - The Deral institution reported that the soybean harvest in Brazil's Parana state is still in its early stages, and preliminary results show good yields. Currently, about 4% of the soybean crops in the state have entered the maturity stage (the last stage before harvest), compared to 12% in the same period last year. Due to abnormal weather in previous months, the growth cycle of early - sown soybeans has been extended, but the yield is expected to be good. The predicted soybean output in Parana state in the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in December was significantly higher than the same period last year. From December 1 to 31, Brazil's soybean export volume was 3.383 million tons, compared to 2.006 million tons in December last year [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China from January 13 to 17, which will be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. This visit aims to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security. According to sources, as part of the consultations, Canada may suspend the tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for one year. In response, China may temporarily cancel the 100% additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but trade restrictions on Canadian rapeseed will remain [13]. - The StoneX institution reported that the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed the sale of soybeans to China again, increasing the possibility of China achieving its goal of purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans. The predicted soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2% from the December forecast of 177.2 million tons and a 5.2% increase from the previous year's output [14]. - The Cargonave institution reported that Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 reached a record 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase from 2024. The surge in Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 was mainly due to record - high production and large - scale purchases from China. Affected by the China - US trade war, Chinese buyers avoided US soybeans for most of 2025 and turned to South American soybeans [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 5 - 9 month spread, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pickup volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][20][24][28][33][35][37][39][41][45][46].

Group 1: Soybean Meal Market Insights - The futures market saw a decline in soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices, with soybean meal 2605 contract closing at 2749 CNY/ton, down 96 CNY/ton (3.37%) from the previous month [2][14] - In the spot market, soybean meal prices in Tianjin rose to 3110 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong also saw increases [2][14] - Brazil's soybean planting progress reached 97.9% as of December 27, 2025, slightly above the five-year average but below last year's level [3][15] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Import and Processing Data - China imported 810.7 million tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.3 million tons from October, but an increase of 95.3 million tons (13.32%) year-on-year [4][15] - Cumulative soybean imports from January to November 2025 reached 10,378.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 668.72 million tons (6.89%) [4][15] - The total soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 906.75 million tons, up 5 million tons (0.55%) from the previous month and up 76.38 million tons (9.20%) year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Soybean and Meal Inventory Levels - As of December 26, 2025, national soybean inventory stood at 654.44 million tons, down 60.55 million tons (8.41%) month-on-month, but up 64.44 million tons (11.7%) year-on-year [5][16] - The soybean meal inventory increased to 116.75 million tons, up 1.61 million tons (1.35%) from the previous month and up 46.44 million tons (47.19%) year-on-year [5][16] - Major oil mills' soybean meal deliveries reached 408.62 million tons, an increase of 55.9 million tons (15.85%) month-on-month and up 41.51 million tons (11.31%) year-on-year [5][16] Group 4: Corn Market Insights - The corn futures market saw a slight decline, with the 2603 contract closing at 2226 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton (0.58%) [6][18] - In November 2025, corn imports totaled 55.48 million tons, a significant increase of 55.56% month-on-month and 87.50% year-on-year [7][18] - The estimated corn consumption for December 2025 among major processing enterprises is 620 million tons, an increase of 16 million tons from the previous month [7][18] Group 5: Starch Market Insights - In November 2025, corn starch imports were recorded at 274 tons, a decrease of 71.79% month-on-month but an increase of 51.19% year-on-year [8][19] - The total production of corn starch in December 2025 was 139.65 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.4%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [8][19] - The average profit for corn starch products in December showed a decline, with Jilin's average profit at -72 CNY/ton, down 168 CNY/ton month-on-month [8][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soymeal, the market is expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to avoid holiday - related risks [1]. - For soybeans, investors are advised to hedge risks before the holiday and observe the market cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2605 closed at 4224 yuan/ton in the day - session, up 65 yuan (+1.56%), and 4237 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 33 yuan (+0.78%); DCE soymeal 2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton in the day - session, down 10 yuan (-0.36%), and 2771 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 3 yuan (+0.11%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1060.75 cents/bushel, down 3.0 cents (-0.28%); CBOT soymeal 03 closed at 302.3 dollars/short - ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.40%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal (43%) was 3060 - 3140 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, it was 3040 - 3140 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3120 - 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 20.37 million tons per day, compared with 5.07 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 110.22 million tons per week, compared with 105.63 million tons two weeks ago [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the clear production outlook of South American soybeans. Year - end closing will be the main theme in the market in the next few days. The market will focus on the weekly export sales report and position report on Wednesday. Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 million tons to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season. Soybean harvesting is underway in Brazil's Paraná and Mato Grosso states, and nearly 76% of soybean planting in Argentina has been completed [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session's main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of domestic soybean meal is affected by the interaction of the US soybean market and domestic demand improvement. At the end of the year, the demand gradually enters the peak season, and the spot price premium supports the market. However, the news is mixed, and the short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. The price of US soybeans is also affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American soybean production prospects [8][9]. - The price of domestic soybeans is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. However, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans suppress the price expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 276, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 95.11% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of - 16, showing a discount to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 24.85% [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 6. Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US soybean market, domestic demand, and inventory, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Soybeans - The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4120 - 4220. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand, but is suppressed by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production [11].