1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a probability of over 40% that a weak El Niño phenomenon will occur between May and August, and the probability will increase to 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, which may intensify weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a weakening effect on rainfall around Indonesia. The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and the early strengthening of El Niño, which may lead to high - temperature and drought risks in some production areas and affect the production of natural rubber [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - term Climate Dynamics** - **El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**: The current Nino3.4 index is 0.0 (+0.1), in a neutral state. There is a probability of over 40% that it will turn into a weak El Niño between May and August, and 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, increasing the risk of high - temperature and drought in the production areas [1]. - **Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)**: The DMI index is 0.53, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has turned positive month - on - month, weakening rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO)**: Currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - **Production Areas' Conditions** - **China**: Yunnan is gradually starting trial tapping, with good phenological conditions during the winter suspension period. Hainan has good phenological conditions, with earlier tapping than previous years. However, attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in the future [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Thailand's northern and northeastern production areas are in the suspension period, and the southern production area is mostly in the suspension period. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are in the suspension period, and Laos is gradually starting trial tapping. Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in some areas [2][4]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Indonesia's northern production area is in the low - yield season, and Malaysia's Malay Peninsula production area has had less precipitation in the first quarter. The Philippines' Mindanao area has had more rainfall before, and now it is in the low - yield season [5]. - **South Asia**: India's northeastern production area is in the suspension season, with high - temperature and continuous rainy weather, increasing the risk of diseases. The southwestern production area is approaching the end of the tapping season. Sri Lanka has received rainfall, improving soil humidity [6]. - **West Africa**: Côte d'Ivoire is mostly in the suspension period during the dry season, and it is expected to enter a new production season at the end of April. Attention should be paid to the risk of drought [7]. 3.2 Production Areas' Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the deviation from the average of last week, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7][8]. 3.3 Production Areas' Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical Depression**: Low impact. There is a slight air flow disturbance in the southern part of the Java Islands in Indonesia [9]. - **Flood Disaster**: None. The main production areas in Thailand have no flood risk, and most river water levels are maintained at a low level (<10% capacity) [9]. - **Drought and Fire Risk**: Low risk, but attention should be paid to the northeastern and southern parts of Thailand, the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, and the southern part of Myanmar [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides the 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, as well as the 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for production areas in China, the Indochina Peninsula, the Malay Archipelago, South Asia, and West Africa [11][50][108][141][168]. - It also provides detailed meteorological index tracking for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly at different layers, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [16][55][116][146][175]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - Global natural rubber is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%, with Thailand having a planting area of about 1/4, Indonesia about 1/5, and the rest being more scattered. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia 15%, and Côte d'Ivoire more than 10% [187]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages: "leaf - falling period - sprouting period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". The new leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity, and are also prone to diseases and pests [195]. - In the long - term, the yield of natural rubber mainly depends on the planting area and tree - age structure, with low supply elasticity. In the short - term, more attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the tapping progress [195]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The key weather factors to be concerned about vary in different production areas due to geographical and climatic differences [197].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall precipitation has increased slightly, and the drought in domestic rubber-producing areas has been alleviated [1]. - The weak La Niña phenomenon has ended and turned into a neutral state, with a high probability of turning into a weak El Niño phenomenon in the future, which may increase the risk of drought in some producing areas [1]. - The weather conditions in various rubber-producing areas around the world are different, and the impact on rubber production varies [2][5][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **ENSO**: The Nino3.4 index is -0.1 (+0.4), the weak La Niña phenomenon has ended and turned into a neutral state. There is a probability of over 40% to turn into a weak El Niño phenomenon from June to August, and the probability will increase to 60% from September to October, with the intensity possibly strengthening [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is 0.03, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has weakened compared to December, reducing the impact on rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: Currently in the 5th stage area, it will be mainly active in the Western Pacific Ocean in the next month, with no significant impact on the eastern coast of the Indian Ocean (around Indonesia) [1]. 3.2 Rainfall Data Summary of Producing Areas - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber-producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year-on-year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this week's forecast precipitation, and next week's forecast precipitation [8]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - **Tropical Depression**: None. There will be rainfall disturbances in the southern part of the Indonesian archipelago and the eastern part of the Philippine archipelago [11]. - **Flood Disaster**: None. Thailand is currently in the dry season, and there is no flood risk in the main producing areas, with most river water levels remaining low [11]. - **Drought and Fire Risk**: Weakened. The drought problems in Yunnan and Hainan have been alleviated, but there is still mild meteorological drought in some local areas of Hainan, and subsequent scattered rainfall will improve soil moisture [11]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **China**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with early - year precipitation lower than the same period, and recent scattered spring rain has improved soil moisture. Hainan is also in the off - season, with previous precipitation shortages and recent rainfall improving the drought situation [2]. - **Southeast Asia**: Thailand is in the dry season with less overall rainfall, and recent scattered rain has increased soil humidity. Vietnam has received concentrated heavy rainfall, improving the previous situation of less rainfall [2]. - **Other Regions**: Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, Sri Lanka, and Cote d'Ivoire all have different degrees of precipitation and soil humidity changes [5][6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the weak La Nina phenomenon continues, and there is a probability of it transitioning to a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - Except for the Indonesian产区, rainfall in other rubber - producing areas is relatively low, which may have an impact on rubber production [1][2]. - The supply of natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March [212]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.4 (+0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until February 2026 and then gradually transition to ENSO neutral. There is a probability of over 45% that it will turn into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may increase drought risks in the western Pacific - surrounding producing areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.52, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has further weakened compared to last week, reducing its impact on rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: The Madden - Julian Oscillation is currently in the first - stage area and is expected to develop towards the third stage in mid - February, affecting the eastern coast of the Indian Ocean (around Indonesia) [1]. 3.2 Production Area Conditions - **China** - **Yunnan**: The Yunnan producing area has stopped tapping. January precipitation was lower than the same - period level, and soil humidity is normal. Low temperatures are expected, and there is a need to be vigilant against local cold damage [2]. - **Hainan**: The entire Hainan Island has stopped tapping. There has been scattered rainfall in the eastern part of Hainan, with less rain compared to the same period. In the next week, it will be mainly sunny to cloudy with local showers. As of the end of January, 12 cities and counties in the whole island had mild to moderate drought [2]. - **Southeast Asia** - **Thailand**: Thailand has emerged from the rainy season, and temperatures are slowly rising. There has been little rainfall in the whole country in the past two weeks, and soil humidity is lower than the historical level. The northeastern and northern producing areas will gradually stop tapping in mid - February [2]. - **Vietnam**: Rainfall in Vietnam has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is slightly low. High - altitude rubber plantations are affected by low night - time temperatures, resulting in low dry content of latex. Tapping will gradually stop in mid - February [2]. - **Cambodia**: Temperatures in the Cambodian producing area will rise slightly, but rainfall is scarce, and it is approaching the end of the tapping season [2]. - **Myanmar**: There has been continuous low rainfall in the southern part of the Myanmar producing area, with a risk of drought and a decrease in effective latex output [5]. - **Laos**: Rainfall in the Lao producing area has been scarce recently, and soil humidity has declined. It is expected to stop production at the same time as other producing areas at the same latitude [5]. - **Indonesia**: Rainfall in the Indonesian producing area has increased recently, with heavy rainfall in some areas. Tapping in the southern producing area is more affected [5]. - **Malaysia**: The Malay Peninsula producing area is currently in the peak of the rainy season, but January precipitation was lower than the same period last year. Two concentrated rainfalls are expected in the next two weeks, which will help improve soil moisture [5]. - **Philippines**: Precipitation in the Philippine producing area is slightly lower than the historical level. There will be concentrated rainfall in the Mindanao area in the next week, which will improve soil humidity [5]. - **South Asia** - **India**: Rainfall in various Indian producing areas has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is gradually decreasing. Most of the northeastern producing areas have entered the tapping - stop period, and the southwestern producing area is also approaching the end of the tapping season [6]. - **Sri Lanka**: The Sri Lankan producing area has entered the dry season. Rainfall increased compared to last week, and soil humidity has recovered. Rainfall will decrease in the next week [6]. - **West Africa** - **Cote d'Ivoire**: It is currently in the dry season, with a seasonal decrease in precipitation and rising temperatures. Scattered precipitation has maintained normal soil moisture, and the climate is relatively suitable [7]. 3.3 Production Area Rainfall Data Summary The report provides detailed data on the cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for various producing areas in the current month [8][10]. 3.4 Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There are active low - pressure systems in the western and southeastern parts of Indonesia, with increased cloud and rain in the area [11]. - In Thailand, most of the main producing areas have less rainfall, and the water levels of most rivers are low (less than 10% capacity) [11]. 3.5 Other Appendices - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand has the largest planting area, followed by Indonesia. In terms of production, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [202]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and natural disasters. Short - term rubber supply is more affected by weather factors, and different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [210]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude [212].