1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is a probability of over 40% that a weak El Niño phenomenon will occur between May and August, and the probability will increase to 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, which may intensify weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a weakening effect on rainfall around Indonesia. The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and the early strengthening of El Niño, which may lead to high - temperature and drought risks in some production areas and affect the production of natural rubber [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - term Climate Dynamics** - **El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**: The current Nino3.4 index is 0.0 (+0.1), in a neutral state. There is a probability of over 40% that it will turn into a weak El Niño between May and August, and 60% from September to October. The intensity may be significantly stronger than the prediction at the beginning of the year, and it may further strengthen to a strong El Niño in the third quarter, increasing the risk of high - temperature and drought in the production areas [1]. - **Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)**: The DMI index is 0.53, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has turned positive month - on - month, weakening rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO)**: Currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak, and will strengthen and develop towards the 8th stage in the future, which may increase precipitation in the West African production areas but has no impact on the Southeast Asian production areas [1]. - **Production Areas' Conditions** - **China**: Yunnan is gradually starting trial tapping, with good phenological conditions during the winter suspension period. Hainan has good phenological conditions, with earlier tapping than previous years. However, attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in the future [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Thailand's northern and northeastern production areas are in the suspension period, and the southern production area is mostly in the suspension period. Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are in the suspension period, and Laos is gradually starting trial tapping. Attention should be paid to the risks of less rainfall and high - temperature in some areas [2][4]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Indonesia's northern production area is in the low - yield season, and Malaysia's Malay Peninsula production area has had less precipitation in the first quarter. The Philippines' Mindanao area has had more rainfall before, and now it is in the low - yield season [5]. - **South Asia**: India's northeastern production area is in the suspension season, with high - temperature and continuous rainy weather, increasing the risk of diseases. The southwestern production area is approaching the end of the tapping season. Sri Lanka has received rainfall, improving soil humidity [6]. - **West Africa**: Côte d'Ivoire is mostly in the suspension period during the dry season, and it is expected to enter a new production season at the end of April. Attention should be paid to the risk of drought [7]. 3.2 Production Areas' Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the deviation from the average of last week, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7][8]. 3.3 Production Areas' Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical Depression**: Low impact. There is a slight air flow disturbance in the southern part of the Java Islands in Indonesia [9]. - **Flood Disaster**: None. The main production areas in Thailand have no flood risk, and most river water levels are maintained at a low level (<10% capacity) [9]. - **Drought and Fire Risk**: Low risk, but attention should be paid to the northeastern and southern parts of Thailand, the western part of Côte d'Ivoire, and the southern part of Myanmar [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides the 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, as well as the 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for production areas in China, the Indochina Peninsula, the Malay Archipelago, South Asia, and West Africa [11][50][108][141][168]. - It also provides detailed meteorological index tracking for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly at different layers, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [16][55][116][146][175]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - Global natural rubber is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%, with Thailand having a planting area of about 1/4, Indonesia about 1/5, and the rest being more scattered. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia 15%, and Côte d'Ivoire more than 10% [187]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages: "leaf - falling period - sprouting period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". The new leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity, and are also prone to diseases and pests [195]. - In the long - term, the yield of natural rubber mainly depends on the planting area and tree - age structure, with low supply elasticity. In the short - term, more attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the tapping progress [195]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas** - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The key weather factors to be concerned about vary in different production areas due to geographical and climatic differences [197].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall precipitation has increased slightly, and the drought in domestic rubber-producing areas has been alleviated [1]. - The weak La Niña phenomenon has ended and turned into a neutral state, with a high probability of turning into a weak El Niño phenomenon in the future, which may increase the risk of drought in some producing areas [1]. - The weather conditions in various rubber-producing areas around the world are different, and the impact on rubber production varies [2][5][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **ENSO**: The Nino3.4 index is -0.1 (+0.4), the weak La Niña phenomenon has ended and turned into a neutral state. There is a probability of over 40% to turn into a weak El Niño phenomenon from June to August, and the probability will increase to 60% from September to October, with the intensity possibly strengthening [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is 0.03, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has weakened compared to December, reducing the impact on rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: Currently in the 5th stage area, it will be mainly active in the Western Pacific Ocean in the next month, with no significant impact on the eastern coast of the Indian Ocean (around Indonesia) [1]. 3.2 Rainfall Data Summary of Producing Areas - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber-producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year-on-year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this week's forecast precipitation, and next week's forecast precipitation [8]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - **Tropical Depression**: None. There will be rainfall disturbances in the southern part of the Indonesian archipelago and the eastern part of the Philippine archipelago [11]. - **Flood Disaster**: None. Thailand is currently in the dry season, and there is no flood risk in the main producing areas, with most river water levels remaining low [11]. - **Drought and Fire Risk**: Weakened. The drought problems in Yunnan and Hainan have been alleviated, but there is still mild meteorological drought in some local areas of Hainan, and subsequent scattered rainfall will improve soil moisture [11]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **China**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with early - year precipitation lower than the same period, and recent scattered spring rain has improved soil moisture. Hainan is also in the off - season, with previous precipitation shortages and recent rainfall improving the drought situation [2]. - **Southeast Asia**: Thailand is in the dry season with less overall rainfall, and recent scattered rain has increased soil humidity. Vietnam has received concentrated heavy rainfall, improving the previous situation of less rainfall [2]. - **Other Regions**: Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, Sri Lanka, and Cote d'Ivoire all have different degrees of precipitation and soil humidity changes [5][6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the weak La Nina phenomenon continues, and there is a probability of it transitioning to a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - Except for the Indonesian产区, rainfall in other rubber - producing areas is relatively low, which may have an impact on rubber production [1][2]. - The supply of natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March [212]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.4 (+0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until February 2026 and then gradually transition to ENSO neutral. There is a probability of over 45% that it will turn into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may increase drought risks in the western Pacific - surrounding producing areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.52, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has further weakened compared to last week, reducing its impact on rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: The Madden - Julian Oscillation is currently in the first - stage area and is expected to develop towards the third stage in mid - February, affecting the eastern coast of the Indian Ocean (around Indonesia) [1]. 3.2 Production Area Conditions - **China** - **Yunnan**: The Yunnan producing area has stopped tapping. January precipitation was lower than the same - period level, and soil humidity is normal. Low temperatures are expected, and there is a need to be vigilant against local cold damage [2]. - **Hainan**: The entire Hainan Island has stopped tapping. There has been scattered rainfall in the eastern part of Hainan, with less rain compared to the same period. In the next week, it will be mainly sunny to cloudy with local showers. As of the end of January, 12 cities and counties in the whole island had mild to moderate drought [2]. - **Southeast Asia** - **Thailand**: Thailand has emerged from the rainy season, and temperatures are slowly rising. There has been little rainfall in the whole country in the past two weeks, and soil humidity is lower than the historical level. The northeastern and northern producing areas will gradually stop tapping in mid - February [2]. - **Vietnam**: Rainfall in Vietnam has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is slightly low. High - altitude rubber plantations are affected by low night - time temperatures, resulting in low dry content of latex. Tapping will gradually stop in mid - February [2]. - **Cambodia**: Temperatures in the Cambodian producing area will rise slightly, but rainfall is scarce, and it is approaching the end of the tapping season [2]. - **Myanmar**: There has been continuous low rainfall in the southern part of the Myanmar producing area, with a risk of drought and a decrease in effective latex output [5]. - **Laos**: Rainfall in the Lao producing area has been scarce recently, and soil humidity has declined. It is expected to stop production at the same time as other producing areas at the same latitude [5]. - **Indonesia**: Rainfall in the Indonesian producing area has increased recently, with heavy rainfall in some areas. Tapping in the southern producing area is more affected [5]. - **Malaysia**: The Malay Peninsula producing area is currently in the peak of the rainy season, but January precipitation was lower than the same period last year. Two concentrated rainfalls are expected in the next two weeks, which will help improve soil moisture [5]. - **Philippines**: Precipitation in the Philippine producing area is slightly lower than the historical level. There will be concentrated rainfall in the Mindanao area in the next week, which will improve soil humidity [5]. - **South Asia** - **India**: Rainfall in various Indian producing areas has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is gradually decreasing. Most of the northeastern producing areas have entered the tapping - stop period, and the southwestern producing area is also approaching the end of the tapping season [6]. - **Sri Lanka**: The Sri Lankan producing area has entered the dry season. Rainfall increased compared to last week, and soil humidity has recovered. Rainfall will decrease in the next week [6]. - **West Africa** - **Cote d'Ivoire**: It is currently in the dry season, with a seasonal decrease in precipitation and rising temperatures. Scattered precipitation has maintained normal soil moisture, and the climate is relatively suitable [7]. 3.3 Production Area Rainfall Data Summary The report provides detailed data on the cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for various producing areas in the current month [8][10]. 3.4 Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There are active low - pressure systems in the western and southeastern parts of Indonesia, with increased cloud and rain in the area [11]. - In Thailand, most of the main producing areas have less rainfall, and the water levels of most rivers are low (less than 10% capacity) [11]. 3.5 Other Appendices - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand has the largest planting area, followed by Indonesia. In terms of production, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [202]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and natural disasters. Short - term rubber supply is more affected by weather factors, and different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [210]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude [212].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in 2026, with the weather conditions in the third quarter being the key factor for the market turnaround [170]. - The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient in the 2025/2026 season, but there are uncertainties in the 2026/2027 season due to potential weather risks [8][11][79][93]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio is an important factor affecting sugar prices. When the ratio is high, sugar supply increases and prices tend to fall; when it is low, sugar prices have more upward momentum [47]. Summary by Related Catalogs 25/26 Quarter Brazil Continues to Have a Bumper Harvest - As of the first half of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. Although the sugarcane crushing volume decreased due to lower yields, the high sugar - making ratio led to high sugar production [8]. - In 2025, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil was very low in the first quarter, a critical growth period for sugarcane. The rainfall from January to March was the third - lowest since 2010, similar to 2014, 2021, and 2024. It is estimated that the sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region in the 2025/2026 season will be 72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [15][16][26]. - Despite the decline in yield, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season will remain above 40 million tons, mainly because the sugar - making ratio of sugar mills is relatively high [25]. 25/26 Quarter Brazil's Sugar - Making Ratio Remains High - The sugar - alcohol price difference in Brazil peaked at the end of 2023 and then declined. In most of 2025, the difference was at a relatively high level, so sugar mills chose to maximize sugar production [33]. - As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative ethanol production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 29.534 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.43%. The alcohol - oil price ratio increased year - on - year but remained at a historically low level and below 0.7, which is beneficial for ethanol consumption [33]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio has returned to the bottom of the previous oscillation range, and the negative impact has been digested [45]. Brazil: Export Decline, Inventory Increase - From January to December 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 33.8728 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.67‰ [52]. - Due to lower yields and slower early - stage crushing progress, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year from April to August and was at the lowest level in recent years. However, with the increase in sugar - making ratio and production, and the decrease in exports, the inventory began to increase from September. As of November 30, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region was 10.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. Brazil: Pay Attention to Weather Risks - The market's focus has shifted to the production forecast for the next season. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Brazil entered the rainy season, but the rainfall was not ideal in October and November. However, the rainfall in December was abundant, alleviating the previous drought [59][62]. - As the sugar - alcohol price difference has converged, it is likely that Brazilian sugar mills will reduce the sugar - making ratio in 2026 [62]. Brazil: Medium - Term Weather Forecast - Using the European Meteorological Center's ensemble forecast data product, it is predicted that the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first quarter of 2026 will be less than in previous years, which is not conducive to sugarcane growth [67]. India: Expected Significant Increase in Sugar Production in the 25/26 Season - In the 25/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to be good, with a high probability of a bumper harvest. The sugarcane planting area is expected to be 5.85 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8.95% [79]. - In 2025, India had abundant rainfall, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. It is expected that the yield per unit area will increase significantly year - on - year. There were also fewer pests and diseases, which helped increase production [79]. - As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season was 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [85]. Thailand: Expected Slight Increase in Sugar Production in the 25/26 Season - Affected by the decline in international sugar prices, the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand in the 25/26 season has been adjusted downward. However, due to other incentive policies, farmers' enthusiasm for planting sugarcane has been guaranteed [90]. - The Thai government has introduced a differential subsidy mechanism, and sugar mills meeting specific environmental protection standards will enjoy tax incentives. It is expected that the sugarcane planting area in Thailand in the 2025/2026 season will be 1.68 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8% [90]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Thailand's sugarcane production in the 2025/2026 season to be 96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and sugar production to be 10.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The Thai Sugar Company expects sugar production to be 10.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.58% [93]. Pay Attention to Weather Risks in the Northern Hemisphere in the Third Quarter - The main focus of the sugar market this year is the rainfall in the northern hemisphere in the third quarter. The probability of an El Niño event occurring in the third quarter is increasing, which may lead to reduced rainfall in the rainy season in the northern hemisphere and potential collective production cuts in the 2026/2027 season in China, India, and Thailand [104]. - According to the European Meteorological Center's ensemble forecast data product, the rainfall in India and Thailand in the second quarter is expected to be lower than the annual average, indicating a risk of drought [104]. China's Sugar Market - In the 2024/2025 season, China's total sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 682,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90% [114]. - In the 2024/2025 season, the sugarcane yield per unit area in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, but due to the increase in planting area and sugar extraction rate, sugar production increased year - on - year. In 2025, the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, and the market share of domestic sugar increased. The early - stage sales rhythm was fast, but the later rhythm slowed down, and the ending inventory increased year - on - year [114]. - In 2025, China's sugar imports first decreased and then increased. As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.3416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 376,400 tons, an increase of 9.49%. The import volume of syrup decreased significantly year - on - year [123]. Guangxi - In 2025, the rainfall in Guangxi was uneven, with drought and floods coexisting. The rainfall from January to April was very low, but the drought in the first quarter had limited impact on sugarcane because it was in the emergence stage. The heavy rainfall in May effectively alleviated the drought [131][133][136]. - After April, the average monthly temperature in Guangxi rose above 22°C, forming a situation of simultaneous heat and rain, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth. After mid - September, the rainfall decreased significantly, and sugarcane growth slowed down. The rainfall from July to September, especially in September, is the key factor determining the final plant height and yield per unit area of sugarcane [141]. - In 2025, the rainfall in September and October was sufficient, which was beneficial for sugarcane growth, and it is expected that the yield per unit area will remain at a high level [145]. - The sugarcane vegetation index in Guangxi increased year - on - year, indicating good growth and an expected increase in yield per unit area [158]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the main trading point for Zhengzhou sugar futures is the production forecast for the 2026/2027 season. The probability of an El Niño event occurring in the third quarter of 2026 is increasing, which may lead to drought in the sugarcane - growing areas in Guangxi and potential production cuts [168].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Zhengzhou sugar futures will show a trend of first decline and then rise in 2026, with the weather conditions in the third quarter being the key to the market turning point. The global sugar market is affected by factors such as production in major producing countries, weather conditions, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. Overall, the sugar price is expected to be under pressure in the first half of the year and may reverse if there is insufficient rainfall in the third quarter [170]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - **25/26 Season Production**: As of the first half of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. Although the sugarcane crushing volume decreased due to lower yields, the high sugar - making ratio led to high sugar production. It is estimated that the sugar production in the 25/26 season will remain above 40 million tons, and the estimated sugarcane yield is 72 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [8][25][26]. - **Sugar - Alcohol Price Ratio**: The sugar - alcohol price difference in Brazil peaked at the end of 2023 and then declined. In most of 2025, the sugar - alcohol price difference was relatively high, and sugar mills maximized sugar production. As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative ethanol production in the central - southern region decreased by 5.43% year - on - year. The alcohol - oil price ratio increased year - on - year but remained at a historically low level, and the sugar - alcohol price ratio decreased significantly, digesting the negative factors [33]. - **Export and Inventory**: In 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports from January to December were 33.8728 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.67‰. The sugar inventory in the central - southern region decreased year - on - year from April to August and was at the lowest level in recent years. However, with the increase in sugar production and the decrease in exports, the inventory began to increase from September. As of November 30, the inventory was 10.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Weather and Future Outlook**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the rainfall in the rainy season in Brazil was not ideal, but the rainfall in December was abundant, alleviating the previous drought. It is expected that the rainfall in the first quarter of 2026 in the central - southern region will be less than usual, which is not conducive to sugarcane growth. Due to the decline in the sugar - alcohol price ratio, Brazilian sugar mills are likely to reduce the sugar - making ratio in 2026 [62][67]. India - **25/26 Season Production Forecast**: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase significantly. The sugarcane planting area is 5.85 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. The rainfall in 2025 was abundant, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the yield is expected to increase significantly. It is estimated that 4.5 million tons of sugar will be used for ethanol production. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimates that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons. As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [79][85]. Thailand - **25/26 Season Production Forecast**: Affected by the decline in international sugar prices, the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand has been adjusted downwards. However, due to other incentive policies, farmers' enthusiasm for planting sugarcane has been guaranteed. The Thai Sugarcane New Policy has introduced a differential subsidy mechanism, and the Thai Sugar Industry Committee expects the sugarcane planting area in the 2025/26 season to be 1.68 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season will be 96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and the sugar production will be 10.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The Thai Sugar Company estimates that the sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 10.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.58%. As of January 12, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 2.1717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 583,600 tons, a decrease of 21.18% [90][93]. China - **24/25 Season Situation**: The national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 682,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90%. The sugarcane yield in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, but due to the increase in planting area and sugar extraction rate, the sugar production increased year - on - year. The domestic sugar import volume first decreased and then increased in 2025. The syrup import volume decreased significantly due to policy influence [114][123]. - **Guangxi Situation**: In 2025, the rainfall in Guangxi was uneven, with drought and flood coexisting. The rainfall from January to April was very low, but the heavy rain in May effectively alleviated the drought. The rainfall from July to September, especially in September, is the key factor determining the sugarcane yield. The rainfall in September and October 2025 was sufficient, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the yield is expected to remain high. The sugarcane vegetation index in Guangxi increased year - on - year, indicating good growth and an expected increase in yield. In the long - term, if an El Niño phenomenon occurs in the third quarter of 2026, the sugarcane - producing areas in Guangxi may face drought, and the sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease [131][141][158].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report is a meteorological analysis report on natural rubber futures. It points out that it is the end of the peak production season, and the weather conditions are generally good. However, there are still some potential impacts from climate phenomena such as La Nina and El Nino on the rubber production areas [1]. - The long - and medium - term climate dynamics show that the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month, and there is a possibility of transitioning to ENSO neutral and then to a weak El Nino phenomenon, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - Different natural rubber production areas around the world have different weather conditions, which will have different impacts on rubber production, including the progress of tapping, yield, and the risk of diseases and pests [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - and medium - term climate dynamics**: - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.8 (- 0.1), and the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month. A weak La Nina phenomenon may last from December 2025 to February 2026, transition to ENSO neutral around January - March 2026, and there is a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon from June to August 2026, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.60, increasing the probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: It is expected to be in the second phase and will develop towards the third phase, which will affect the area around Indonesia and intensify weather changes [1]. - **Production area weather**: - **China**: Yunnan has stopped tapping. The significant cooling in early January and mostly sunny weather are conducive to the complete defoliation of rubber trees. Hainan is gradually cooling, with sporadic light rain recently. Most areas in the central and eastern parts have stopped tapping, and the western and southern parts are still tapping but are expected to stop completely in mid - January [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: In Thailand, rainfall has significantly decreased month - on - month, and the rubber in the main planting areas may increase production in the next few weeks but will decrease and stop tapping in mid - January. Vietnam has less rain, which has little impact on tapping. Cambodia's weather is similar to Vietnam's. Myanmar has less rain, and the tapping may be postponed [3]. - **Malay Archipelago**: In Indonesia, the La Nina phenomenon and IOD have strengthened, increasing the probability of rainfall. In December, precipitation in the whole area was high, which affected production. In Malaysia, the Malay Peninsula is in the peak rainy season, and continuous rainfall still affects tapping. In the Philippines, rainfall was less in December but increased recently, and future rainfall will decrease, which is beneficial to production [5]. - **South Asia**: In India, weather disturbances have weakened month - on - month. In Sri Lanka, the flood has subsided, but there is still rain in the central and northern parts [6]. - **West Africa**: In Cote d'Ivoire, rainfall has increased significantly year - on - year in December, and attention should be paid to soil humidity changes and drought risks in the future [6]. 2. Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of main natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year change percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7]. 3. Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical depression**: A tropical depression may form in the southwest of Indonesia, increasing rainfall in western Indonesia, but the impact is limited [10]. - **Flood disaster**: Thailand has less rain recently, and future rainfall is limited, which may increase production. The Malay Peninsula and Sumatra Island in Indonesia are in the peak rainy season, but the rainfall has decreased month - on - month, and the flood risk has decreased [11]. 4. Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides detailed weather maps and meteorological indicator tracking data for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly of each layer, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [20][40][63] Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia accounts for about 1/5. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [196]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather**: The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages. New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity. Long - term rubber supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term supply is more affected by weather factors. Different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [205]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: The global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times of each production area vary due to latitude differences [207].