南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——整体降水小幅增多，国内产区干旱有所缓解 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.1（+0.4），弱拉尼娜现象结束，转为中性 状态。根据NOAA预测，有40%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，9-10月概率提升至 60%，且强度可能有所加强（指数>1.0），产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率会减少西太平 洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为0.03，印度洋偶极子环比12月有所减弱，对印尼周边降雨影 响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 根据BOM监测数据显示，马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第5阶段 区域，未来一个月主要在西太平洋海域活跃，对印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）无显著影响。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，年初以来降水低于同期水平，局部地区有气象干旱问题，近期分散春 雨改善土壤墒情。今年云 ...

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——除印尼产区外，其他产区降雨偏少 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.4（+0.1），弱拉尼娜现象持续，根据 NOAA预测，目前弱拉尼娜现象（-0.9~-0.5）或持续到 2026 年 2 月，并逐渐过渡到 ENSO 中 性，有45%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率 会减少西太平洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为−0.52，印度洋偶极子环比上周进一步减弱，对印尼周边降 雨影响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第一阶段区域，预计将在2月中旬 向第三阶段发展，并影响印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，1月降水低于同期水平，土壤湿度正常。近期云南维持偏低气温，西 双版纳最低气温在10℃左右，临沧、普洱 ...

白糖:先抑后扬，关注天气风险 国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 MM. 国投期货 ///////////////// 25/26季度巴西继续丰产 Comment & R. B. 巴西甲南部紧计目慌产量 ► 2025年4月16日-2026年3月30012024年4月16日-2025年3月30日 百万吨 - - 2023年4月16日-2024年3月30回 2022年4月16日-2023年3月30日 700- 600 500 400 国投期货 300 200 100 8月 11月 9月 11月 11月 11月 12月 12月 11月 11月 11日 2月 6月 7月 5月 4月 数据来源: Unica · 截至2025年12月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为59818.6万吨，同比下降2.36%; 甘蔗ATR为138.38千 克/吨蔗，同比下降2.21%; 累计制糖比为50.91%，同比增加2.72个百分点；累计产乙醇302.75亿升，同比下降 5.37%；累计产糖量为4015.8万吨，同比增加0.86%。 · 虽然单产下降导致甘蔗入榨量减少，但是巴西中南部主产区的制糖比例较高，导致食糖产 ...

白糖:先抑后扬，关注天气风险 国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 MM. 国投期货 ///////////////// 25/26季度巴西继续丰产 Comment & R. B. 巴西甲南部紧计目慌产量 ► 2025年4月16日-2026年3月30012024年4月16日-2025年3月30日 百万吨 - - 2023年4月16日-2024年3月30回 2022年4月16日-2023年3月30日 700- 600 500 400 国投期货 300 200 100 8月 11月 9月 11月 11月 11月 12月 12月 11月 11月 11日 2月 6月 7月 5月 4月 数据来源: Unica · 截至2025年12月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为59818.6万吨，同比下降2.36%; 甘蔗ATR为138.38千 克/吨蔗，同比下降2.21%; 累计制糖比为50.91%，同比增加2.72个百分点；累计产乙醇302.75亿升，同比下降 5.37%；累计产糖量为4015.8万吨，同比增加0.86%。 · 虽然单产下降导致甘蔗入榨量减少，但是巴西中南部主产区的制糖比例较高，导致食糖产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report is a meteorological analysis report on natural rubber futures. It points out that it is the end of the peak production season, and the weather conditions are generally good. However, there are still some potential impacts from climate phenomena such as La Nina and El Nino on the rubber production areas [1]. - The long - and medium - term climate dynamics show that the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month, and there is a possibility of transitioning to ENSO neutral and then to a weak El Nino phenomenon, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - Different natural rubber production areas around the world have different weather conditions, which will have different impacts on rubber production, including the progress of tapping, yield, and the risk of diseases and pests [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Long - and medium - term climate dynamics**: - **ENSO**: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.8 (- 0.1), and the La Nina phenomenon has strengthened slightly month - on - month. A weak La Nina phenomenon may last from December 2025 to February 2026, transition to ENSO neutral around January - March 2026, and there is a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon from June to August 2026, which may increase weather disturbances in the production areas [1]. - **IOD**: The DMI index is - 0.60, increasing the probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - **MJO**: It is expected to be in the second phase and will develop towards the third phase, which will affect the area around Indonesia and intensify weather changes [1]. - **Production area weather**: - **China**: Yunnan has stopped tapping. The significant cooling in early January and mostly sunny weather are conducive to the complete defoliation of rubber trees. Hainan is gradually cooling, with sporadic light rain recently. Most areas in the central and eastern parts have stopped tapping, and the western and southern parts are still tapping but are expected to stop completely in mid - January [2]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: In Thailand, rainfall has significantly decreased month - on - month, and the rubber in the main planting areas may increase production in the next few weeks but will decrease and stop tapping in mid - January. Vietnam has less rain, which has little impact on tapping. Cambodia's weather is similar to Vietnam's. Myanmar has less rain, and the tapping may be postponed [3]. - **Malay Archipelago**: In Indonesia, the La Nina phenomenon and IOD have strengthened, increasing the probability of rainfall. In December, precipitation in the whole area was high, which affected production. In Malaysia, the Malay Peninsula is in the peak rainy season, and continuous rainfall still affects tapping. In the Philippines, rainfall was less in December but increased recently, and future rainfall will decrease, which is beneficial to production [5]. - **South Asia**: In India, weather disturbances have weakened month - on - month. In Sri Lanka, the flood has subsided, but there is still rain in the central and northern parts [6]. - **West Africa**: In Cote d'Ivoire, rainfall has increased significantly year - on - year in December, and attention should be paid to soil humidity changes and drought risks in the future [6]. 2. Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of main natural rubber production areas, including the cumulative precipitation of the current month, the year - on - year change percentage, the cumulative precipitation of last week, the weekly difference, the forecast precipitation for this week, and the forecast precipitation for the next week [7]. 3. Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - **Tropical depression**: A tropical depression may form in the southwest of Indonesia, increasing rainfall in western Indonesia, but the impact is limited [10]. - **Flood disaster**: Thailand has less rain recently, and future rainfall is limited, which may increase production. The Malay Peninsula and Sumatra Island in Indonesia are in the peak rainy season, but the rainfall has decreased month - on - month, and the flood risk has decreased [11]. 4. Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides detailed weather maps and meteorological indicator tracking data for each production area, including daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly of each layer, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [20][40][63] Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia accounts for about 1/5. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global total, Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [196]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather**: The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages. New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity. Long - term rubber supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term supply is more affected by weather factors. Different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [205]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas**: The global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times of each production area vary due to latitude differences [207].