1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various futures products based on the Yulong indicator quantitative model. It assesses the price trends of different commodities in different sectors, including black series, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. The analysis combines technical indicators and fundamental factors to provide insights into the potential investment opportunities and risks of each product [4][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overall Condition Analysis - There are 24 rising - trend varieties, accounting for 45.3%; 16 falling - trend varieties, accounting for 30.2%; and 13 range - oscillating varieties, accounting for 24.5%. The average star rating is 3.1 stars [3]. - Trend judgment is based on the Yulong indicator system, using the relative position and operating characteristics of daily - level prices relative to the dragon track line as the judgment benchmark [4]. 3.2 Rise - Fall Trend Classification Matrix | Plate | Rising Camp | Oscillating Camp | Falling Camp | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Series | Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Coking coal, Ferrosilicon | Manganese silicon | - | | Non - ferrous Metals | Stainless steel | Alumina | Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin, Cast aluminum | | Precious Metals/New Energy/Europe Line | Europe Line | Industrial silicon, Lithium carbonate | Gold, Silver, Platinum, Polysilicon | | Chemicals | Styrene, Plastic, PP, Caustic soda, Methanol, Synthetic rubber, Soda ash, Glass | - | Rubber | | Crude Oil Industry Chain | Crude oil, Liquefied gas | Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Asphalt | - | | Agricultural Products | Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Palm oil, Corn, Eggs, Cotton | Soybean No.1, Soybean No.2, Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal, Apple, Jujube | Live pigs | | Stock Index Futures | - | - | IF, IH, IC, IM | [5] 3.3 Analysis of Each Plate 3.3.1 Black Series Plate - Average star rating: 3.0; Rising: 6; Falling: 0; Oscillating: 1. - Rebar: 4 - star, upward trend but with insufficient momentum and large deviation rate, pay attention to callback risks. Cost support from factors like geopolitical conflicts and tight iron ore inventory, but high inventory and limited profit margins restrict the upward space [6][12][13]. - Coking coal: 4 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to volatility risks. Similar cost - support and inventory - related factors as rebar [7][12][13]. - Iron ore: 3 - star, short - term may oscillate, upward trend with insufficient momentum. Cost support from high - priced crude oil and fuel shortage, but new capacity in the medium - long term may lead to a looser market [14][15]. - Ferrosilicon: 3 - star, upward trend but short - term consolidation, pay attention to risk control. Cost support from factors like manganese ore price increase, but weak demand from steel mills [15][16]. - Manganese silicon: 3 - star, oscillating, balanced long - and short - term forces, pay attention to volatility risks. Similar cost - support and demand - related factors as ferrosilicon [16]. - Coke: 1 - star, bullish oscillation, be cautious. Short - term oversupply of coking coal, and the profitability of downstream steel products affects the iron - making production [16]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Plate - Shanghai copper: 4 - star, bearish oscillation, pay attention to volatility risks. Macro - tightening and weak industry reality lead to a weak short - term pattern, and long - term attention should be paid to macro - expectations and industry supply - demand [9]. - Shanghai zinc: 4 - star, bearish oscillation, pay attention to volatility risks. Low - end price support from downstream purchases, but supply pressure from domestic smelting and delayed demand recovery [10]. - Shanghai tin: 4 - star, bearish oscillation, pay attention to rebound risks. Suppressed by macro - panic and fundamentals, but long - term price center may move up [17]. - Shanghai aluminum: 3 - star, short - term may oscillate weakly, pay attention to volatility. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors [18][19]. - Shanghai nickel: 3 - star, short - term may oscillate weakly, downward trend with insufficient momentum, be cautious. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand in the new energy and stainless - steel industries [19]. - Stainless steel: 3 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, be cautious. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand in the new energy and stainless - steel industries [21]. - Cast aluminum: 3 - star, short - term may oscillate weakly, pay attention to volatility. Strong support from raw material shortage and policy [22]. - Alumina: 2 - star, multi - and short - term directions to be confirmed, pay attention to wide - range oscillation risks. Supply - demand is complex, with new capacity and cost factors [22]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals/New Energy/Europe Line Plate - Average star rating: 3.4; Rising: 1; Falling: 4; Oscillating: 2. - Europe Line: 4 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to high - level fall risks. Market in high - level wide - range oscillation, with both bullish and bearish factors [24]. - Silver: 4 - star, short - term bearish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to volatility risks. Affected by factors such as Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical conflicts [24]. - Platinum: 4 - star, downward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to rebound risks. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and Fed's monetary policy [26]. - Gold: 3 - star, short - term bearish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to risk control. Similar factors as silver [26]. - Industrial silicon: 3 - star, balanced long - and short - term forces, oscillating, pay attention to volatility risks. In a weak supply - demand pattern [27]. - Lithium carbonate: 3 - star, multi - and short - term directions to be confirmed, pay attention to wide - range oscillation risks. Supply is loose, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [28]. - Polysilicon: 3 - star, short - term may oscillate weakly, downward trend with insufficient momentum, be cautious. In a weak supply - demand pattern [29]. 3.3.4 Chemicals Plate - Average star rating: 3.7; Rising: 8; Falling: 1; Oscillating: 0. - Soda ash: 5 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to high - level fall risks. High daily production, stable but weak rigid demand, and inventory situation affects the price [31]. - Styrene: 4 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to high - level fall risks. Cost support from geopolitical conflicts and supply reduction risks [31]. - Plastic: 4 - star, upward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to high - level fall risks. Affected by the Middle - East situation [32]. - PP: 4 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to high - level fall risks. Supported by fundamentals and geopolitical risks [33]. - Rubber: 4 - star, short - term bearish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to oversold rebound risks. Affected by energy cost and macro - sentiment [33]. - Synthetic rubber: 4 - star, upward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to volatility risks. Similar factors as rubber [34]. - Methanol: 3 - star, upward trend but short - term consolidation, pay attention to volatility. Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand [34]. - Glass: 3 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to risk control. Affected by supply - demand and cost factors [35]. - Caustic soda: 2 - star, upward trend with insufficient momentum, be cautious. Supply is tightening, and demand is improving [36]. 3.3.5 Crude Oil Industry Chain Plate - Average star rating: 2.8; Rising: 2; Falling: 0; Oscillating: 3. - Crude oil: 4 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to volatility risks. Driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand tensions [37]. - Fuel oil: 3 - star, balanced long - and short - term forces, oscillating, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand in the fuel - oil market [38]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: 3 - star, waiting for breakthrough signal, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Similar factors as fuel oil [39]. - Asphalt: 3 - star, waiting for breakthrough signal, pay attention to wide - range oscillation risks. Affected by geopolitical factors and crude - oil price [39]. - Liquefied gas: 1 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to risk control. Driven by capital sentiment, with limited fundamental support [40]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products Plate - Average star rating: 2.4; Rising: 6; Falling: 1; Oscillating: 6. - Palm oil: 4 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to volatility risks. Affected by crude - oil price and bio - fuel policies [41]. - Eggs: 4 - star, short - term bullish but need to observe sustainability, large deviation rate, pay attention to callback risks. Affected by supply - demand and cost factors [42]. - Live pigs: 3 - star, bearish oscillation, pay attention to volatility. In a complex supply - demand and policy - game situation [44]. - Cotton: 3 - star, upward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to volatility. Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand in the cotton market [45]. - Apple: 3 - star, multi - and short - term directions to be confirmed, pay attention to wide - range oscillation risks. Affected by market supply - demand and inventory factors [45]. - Jujube: 3 - star, multi - and short - term directions to be confirmed, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Weak demand and supply - demand pattern [46]. - Soybean No.1: 2 - star, waiting for breakthrough signal, pay attention to volatility risks. Affected by international trade and supply - demand in the soybean market [46]. - Soybean No.2: 2 - star, balanced long - and short - term forces, oscillating, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Similar factors as soybean No.1 [47]. - Soybean meal: 2 - star, waiting for breakthrough signal, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Similar factors as soybean No.1 [48]. - Rapeseed meal: 2 - star, multi - and short - term directions to be confirmed, pay attention to breakthrough direction. Similar factors as soybean No.1 [48]. - Soybean oil: 1 - star, upward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to risk control. Affected by crude - oil price and bio - fuel policies [49]. - Rapeseed oil: 1 - star, bullish oscillation, pay attention to risk control. Similar factors as soybean oil [49]. - Corn: 1 - star, bullish oscillation, be cautious. Affected by crude - oil price and bio - fuel policies [49]. 3.3.7 Stock Index Futures Plate - Average star rating: 3.8; Rising: 0; Falling: 4; Oscillating: 0. - IH: 4 - star, downward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to volatility risks. Affected by external disturbances and market sentiment, but long - term support from domestic policies [50][51]. - IC: 4 - star, short - term bearish but need to observe sustainability, pay attention to rebound risks. Similar factors as IH [52][53]. - IM: 4 - star, downward trend with insufficient momentum, pay attention to oversold rebound risks. Similar factors as IH [53]. - IF: 3 - star, bearish oscillation, pay attention to risk control. Similar factors as IH [54][55].