交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年3月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24440，基差+70；中性。 3、库存：3月3日LME锌库存较上日减少1400吨至95375吨，3月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加2359吨至73097吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下, ...

2026.03.02-03.06 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡偏弱运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至2月28日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力多头阵营略占优势。 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 工业硅震荡运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 上周策略回顾 本周策略建议 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 LME库存与注销仓 ...

2026.03.02-03.06 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于区间震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第8周油厂大豆实际压榨量3.72万吨，开机率为1.02%， 豆粕库存84.25万吨。国内油厂大豆及豆粕库存高位，供应宽松格局未改； 需求端因养殖利润不佳，饲料企业采购谨慎。不过，巴西港口运输受阻 及国内油厂开机未完全恢复，导致短期供应偏紧；同时，美国生物燃料 政策预期向好，提振美豆价格，抬升成本端支撑。综合来看，预计豆粕 期货维持区间震荡。 2 关注南美天气变化、美关税政策以及国内养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 M2605在供应压力与成本支撑博弈下。预计运行区间：2700- 2850。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上升通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计处于震荡格局，预计运行区间：2730-2900。 品种诊断情况 | く 豆粕(m) v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈 ...

2026.02.24-02.27 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于区间震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 节后随着油厂开机率回升及物流恢复，国内豆粕供应压力将陆续释放； 同时南美丰产预期下全球大豆宽松格局延续。然而，假期期间美豆走强 抬升了国内进口成本，叠加开工后下游补库需求逐步启动，对价格形成 底部支撑。综合多空因素，预计豆粕期货将维持区间震荡格局。 2 关注南美天气变化、美关税政策以及国内养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 春节假期临近，为规避长假期间波动风险，建议节前以观望为 主。 本周策略建议 M2605在供应压力与成本支撑博弈下。预计运行区间：2700- 2850。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 豆粕周度产量 豆粕周度库存 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage, with a short - term outlook of weak and stable fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, and it's advised to hold an empty position and wait and see. [6][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with a slight weakening last week. Light soda ash prices declined slightly, and heavy soda ash prices were mostly stable. Supply had a slight contraction due to individual enterprise maintenance, but new capacity release expectations persisted, and demand was average. The futures market showed a volatile trend, and a wait - and - see approach was suggested. [6] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash spot market had a narrow consolidation, with loose supply - demand and lack of upward price momentum. The futures market was intertwined with multiple factors and was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The spot market was stable with a slight weakening. Supply had short - term contraction but new capacity expectations brought pressure, and demand was dull. The futures market was in a volatile pattern, with cost support and weak fundamentals in a game, lacking a clear direction. [10] - **Related Data Situation**: The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量, light and heavy soda ash inventory (weekly), daily basis, and the weekly production cost of ammonia - soda process in North China. [11][15][18] 3.2 Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: The float glass market had a narrow fluctuation and regional differentiation last week. As the Spring Festival approached, demand entered a seasonal contraction, inventory began to accumulate in most regions, and the futures market was affected by multiple factors, showing a weak and volatile pattern. An empty - position wait - and - see approach was recommended. [31] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market had a narrow consolidation, with weakening demand and differentiated inventory performance. The futures market was volatile, lacking a clear direction in the short term. [34] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The market was narrowly volatile and regionally differentiated. Demand had a seasonal contraction, inventory was accumulating, and the futures market might maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. [35] - **Related Data Situation**: The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory. [36][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2605 is weak and volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. Although there is cost support, the trend is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and steel prices are under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - As the holiday approaches, spot trading tends to stagnate. The inventory of construction steel has increased significantly, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak. The weekly output of rebar has decreased month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. - The demand for rebar is weak. High - frequency demand indicators have decreased month - on - month and are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which will continue to drag down steel prices [3]. - Currently, as the holiday approaches, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are weak. The fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coated paper experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 4034.00 yuan, closing at 4040.00 yuan with a drop of 2.18% [1] - The supply side saw a 4.6% decrease in production due to machine maintenance and conversion, while market supply remains ample [2][3] - Demand is weakening as orders for educational materials conclude, with high inventory levels maintained by companies, resulting in a weak supply-demand balance [2] Group 2 - The production of double-coated paper was reported at 187,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons or 4.6% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.9%, down 2.3% [3] - The inventory level for double-coated paper production companies stands at 1.407 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [3] - Despite weak overall demand, supply constraints due to maintenance may provide some support for prices around the 4000 yuan mark [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: February 2 - 6, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently oscillating. As of January 30, the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9050 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a clear bearish attitude [8]. - Mid - term Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18][21][26] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently on an upward trend. As of January 30, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,600 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures are in a strong upward phase, and the main force has a strong bullish sentiment [34][35]. - Mid - term Strategy: Due to the large price fluctuations, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The bottom of lithium carbonate was rising, and the main contract should focus on the support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan [38]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of lithium carbonate has support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan. This week, focus on whether the closing price breaks the support range and adopt a wait - and - see approach [39]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43][48]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 2.55% [1] - Coking coal prices are expected to face challenges for further increases due to deepening losses among coking enterprises, although production levels remain slightly reduced [2] - Demand for coking coal is stable, with iron output remaining relatively unchanged, leading to a cautious purchasing approach from downstream sectors [2] Group 2 - Coking enterprises are experiencing reduced operating rates and low inventory levels, while steel mills are seeing a recovery in profitability, which may influence coking coal pricing strategies [2] - Market dynamics are characterized by both bullish and bearish pressures, with expectations of a potential rebound after a period of decline, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment [2]

Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses (including the use of the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average), the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 29, 2026, and the trends of continuous contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Category 1. Futures Market Forecast - **January 29, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold (AU2604) and silver (AG2604) are expected to fluctuate strongly; copper (CU2603) and aluminum (AL2603) are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; alumina (AO2605) is expected to fluctuate strongly; zinc (ZN2603) is expected to fluctuate weakly; nickel (NI2603), tin (SN2603), and lithium carbonate (LC2605) are expected to fluctuate widely; crude oil (SC2603) and fuel oil (FU2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA (TA605), PVC (V2605), and methanol (MA605) are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **January 2026 Forecast for Continuous Contracts**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly or widely, with specific resistance and support levels provided, and some are expected to reach new highs [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate continuous contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly and reach new highs; alumina is expected to fluctuate widely; zinc and nickel are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly and widely [4]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China will host the first APEC Senior Officials' Meeting and related meetings in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, 2026 [5]. - In 2026, China will continue to optimize fertility support policies and incentive measures [5]. - In 2025, China's tax department collected 33.1 trillion yuan in taxes and fees, and tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan. In 2026, tax system reform will be deepened [5]. - By the end of 2025, the total assets of central state - owned enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan and strategic emerging industry investment of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the total profit for the year was 2.5 trillion yuan [5]. - In 2025, the number of China's inbound and outbound travelers reached 697 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [6]. - In 2025, the GDP of Guangdong was 14.58 trillion yuan, Jiangsu was 14.24 trillion yuan, and Shandong was 10.32 trillion yuan [6]. - Nearly 60% of surveyed US - funded enterprises plan to increase investment in China [6]. - On January 28, the gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded $5,400 per ounce, and the domestic gold futures price approached 1,200 yuan per gram. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors in the A - share market had a daily limit up [6]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% [7]. - US President Trump threatened Iran, and Iran's foreign minister said Iran's armed forces were on high alert [8]. - India reported a Nipah virus outbreak, but the WHO said the risk of further spread was low [8]. - The German government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [8]. - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated the possibility of continued interest rate hikes [8]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Futures exchanges tightened risk control. The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin and daily limit of the Ag (T + D) contract, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit and margin of 10 futures contracts [9]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium [9]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 6.46% to $5,411 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce [9]. - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose. Trump's warning to Iran and a larger - than - expected decline in US crude oil inventories supported oil prices [10]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin rising 3.52%, LME aluminum rising 1.59%, and LME nickel rising 1.12% [10]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised to a new high since May 17, 2023 [10]. - The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the performance of IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 was analyzed, and their future trends were predicted [11][12][13]. - **Gold Futures**: On January 28 and during the night session of January 29, the performance of the gold futures main contract AU2604 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [33][34]. - **Silver Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the silver futures main contract AG2604 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [37]. - **Copper Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the copper futures main contract CU2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [43]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [48]. - **Alumina Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the alumina futures main contract AO2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [54]. - **Zinc Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the zinc futures main contract ZN2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [58]. - **Nickel Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the nickel futures main contract NI2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [64]. - **Tin Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the tin futures main contract SN2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [66]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [73]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the crude oil futures main contract SC2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [76]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the fuel oil futures main contract FU2603 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [82]. - **PTA Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the PTA futures main contract TA605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [82]. - **PVC Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the PVC futures main contract V2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [87]. - **Methanol Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the methanol futures main contract MA605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [88]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the soybean meal futures main contract M2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [91]. - **Palm Oil Futures**: On January 28, the performance of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was analyzed, and its future trends were predicted [93].