工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 2025.11.24-11.28 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月21日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏多情绪。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日， ...

入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 1. 17日纯碱玻璃震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期供给整体持稳,而生产利润再度挤压,市场继续倒逼供 给减量的压力增强。反内卷大逻辑下,供给扰动情绪易发酵。淡季来临, 整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃估值并不高。同时 煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 年碱生仔 00000 250 8000 200 6000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 I ...

2025.11.17-11.21 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第45周油厂大豆实际压榨量180.57万吨，开机率为 49.67%，豆粕库存99.86万吨。国内大豆到港量维持高位，压榨量虽短期 回落但仍处于相对充裕水平，豆粕整体供应宽松格局未改。下游饲料企 业采购谨慎，养殖利润持续不佳抑制消费积极性，且最新美农供需报告 部分利多预期已提前消化。然而，进口成本抬升及远月备货情绪为市场 提供底部支撑。综合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡阶段。 2 关注中美贸易政策变化，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上行通道,资金方面强烈偏空。M2601 短期内或处于震荡调整阶段，预计运行区间：2950-3150。 本周策略建议 | < 豆粕(m) v | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向: -71. ...

南华期货（603093）指出，120万吨新装置已落地，配套下游暂未跟上的情况下外放量较大，当前产品 已流入华东市场。平衡表看四季度苯乙烯表现为去库，但当前供应减量兑现到港口去库较为缓慢，苯乙 烯港口反季节性高库存加上明年一季度港口存累库预期，去库压力较大。随着宏观会议落地，市场交易 重心再次回归基本面，逐渐靠近需求淡季，市场偏空情绪较重，单边上涨动力不足。 11月13日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，苯乙烯期货结束近期调整态势，呈现明显上涨走势。截 至发稿，苯乙烯主力最高触及6443.00元，下方探低6272.00元，涨幅达2.15%附近。 目前来看，苯乙烯行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于苯乙烯后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 创元期货分析称，供应端，本周期苯乙烯产量33.29万吨，苯乙烯利润不佳影响部分产出，尽管新投产 装置进入稳定生产阶段，但仍有个别装置阶段性检修。整体供应预计仍偏弱。需求端暂无明显的变动， 整体仍维持良好的需求状态，有小幅增加表现。库存方面延续去库存格局，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总 量17.48万吨下降0.45万吨。后市来看，国内苯乙烯供需端表现良好，港口持续去库，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on November 12, 2025. Specifically, stock index futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures are expected to have wide - range oscillations; crude oil futures are likely to oscillate with an upward bias; while coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur [8]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of observing the total financial volume through indicators such as social financing scale and money supply [8]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a video meeting with the German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, discussing Sino - German and Sino - European economic and trade issues and emphasizing the role of the Dutch government in the ASM International issue [8]. - The Mexican government postponed the increase of tariffs on Chinese goods, and the EU considered forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement action [9]. - The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, and the House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill [9]. - US President Trump mentioned the potential economic and national security disasters if the Supreme Court rejects his use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and reducing tariffs on Indian goods. Switzerland is also close to having its tariffs reduced to 15% by the US [10]. - The US "small non - farm" data showed a significant decrease in private - sector employment, and the optimism index of small businesses in the US dropped to a six - month low [10]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange had leadership changes [10]. - On November 11, US and Brent crude oil futures prices rose due to new US sanctions on Russian oil and the expected end of the US government shutdown [11]. - On November 11, international precious metal futures generally rose, with factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks supporting prices [11]. - On November 11, most London base metals closed higher, while the US dollar index fell, and the on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar also showed different trends [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 11, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a pattern of opening higher, then falling back and oscillating downward, with weakened short - term rebound momentum and increased downward pressure [13][14][15]. - It is expected that in November 2025, major stock index futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations. On November 12, they are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 11, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened higher, then fell back and oscillated downward, with weakened short - term rebound momentum and slightly increased downward pressure. The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2863 billion yuan [35]. - It is expected that on November 12, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 will have a wide - range oscillation, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 will also have a wide - range oscillation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [36][39]. Precious Metal Futures - On November 11, the gold futures contract AU2512 and the silver futures contract AG2512 both opened higher, then oscillated upward. It is expected that in November 2025, they will have strong wide - range oscillations, and on November 12, they will oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [40][48][49]. Base Metal Futures - On November 11, copper, aluminum, and alumina futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in November 2025, they will have wide - range oscillations, and on November 12, they will oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [50][57][60]. Other Commodity Futures - On November 11, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures contracts all showed different trends. It is expected that on November 12, they will have different trends such as wide - range oscillations, strong oscillations, or oscillatory consolidation, with specific resistance and support levels provided [63][65][70][75][77][84][86][90][92][95][100][102][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures on November 11, 2025. For example, stock index futures, gold, silver, copper, and some other futures will likely have a relatively strong or strong - biased oscillation, while crude oil, PTA, PVC, and some others will likely have a weak - biased oscillation [1][2]. - The report also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract, which can be used as references for investors to make trading decisions [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on November 11, 2025. For instance, IF2512 has resistance at 4715 and 4741 points, and support at 4653 and 4626 points [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2512 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance at 108.54 and 108.68 yuan [2]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2512 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 115.8 and 115.5 yuan, and resistance at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan [2]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 951.2 and 960.6 yuan/gram, with support at 935.0 and 931.2 yuan/gram [2]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 12000 and 12093 yuan/kg, with support at 11700 and 11652 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2512 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 87100 and 87600 yuan/ton, and support at 86300 and 85700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 21620 and 21490 yuan/ton, and resistance at 21760 and 21790 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 2850 and 2860 yuan/ton, and support at 2819 and 2803 yuan/ton [3]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 53600 and 54700 yuan/ton, and support at 53400 and 52600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, aiming to break through resistance at 89800 and 90800 yuan/ton, with support at 87200 and 86000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3024 and 3009 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3046 and 3061 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3237 and 3229 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3265 and 3273 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 760 and 756 yuan/ton, and resistance at 768 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, with support at 1244 and 1226 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1277 and 1291 yuan/ton [4]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, with support at 1055 and 1040 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1075 and 1091 yuan/ton [4]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 1246 and 1261 yuan/ton, and support at 1223 and 1214 yuan/ton [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2512 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 456 and 452 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 462 and 466 yuan/barrel [4]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 4654 and 4624 yuan/ton, and resistance at 4720 and 4732 yuan/ton [4]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract is likely to have a weak - biased oscillation, aiming to test support at 4580 and 4550 yuan/ton, and resistance at 4614 and 4627 yuan/ton [5]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA601 contract is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 2075 and 2060 yuan/ton, and resistance at 2112 and 2122 yuan/ton [7]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2601 contract is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance at 15210 and 15290 yuan/ton, and support at 15050 and 15000 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - The US has officially announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding and other industries. China has also announced corresponding measures, including suspending the collection of special port fees for US ships and suspending counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - The General Office of the State Council has issued several measures to further promote private investment, including 13 policy initiatives in areas such as expanding market access, promoting fair competition, and optimizing investment and financing support [8]. - Ten departments have released an implementation plan to promote the open interconnection of logistics data and effectively reduce the overall social logistics cost, and also released the first list of shared and open logistics public data in China [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo has concluded, with the annual intended turnover reaching 834.9 billion US dollars, a 4.4% increase from the previous session and a record high [8]. - Central enterprises have continued to increase investment in key areas such as technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and equipment renewal. In the first three quarters, they completed fixed - asset investment of over 3 trillion yuan, a growth of over 3%, and the proportion of investment in emerging industries is about 40% [9]. - After a 40 - day government "shutdown", the US Senate has procedurally voted to pass a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown", but the final voting time has not been arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives [9]. - The US White House has announced a reciprocal trade framework agreement with Thailand, where Thailand will cancel 99% of tariff barriers on goods, and the US will maintain a 19% reciprocal tariff on Thai goods, with zero tariffs on some goods [9]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce the tariff on Swiss goods to 15%, which is a relief for Switzerland as it faced a 39% punitive tariff in August this year [9]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the future weakening of the US economy, advocating for a faster rate - cut rhythm than the traditional 25 - basis - point cuts [10]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue cutting interest rates on the basis of a 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [10]. - The latest data shows that the US container imports in October were 2.31 million TEUs, a 7.5% year - on - year decrease and a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. It is predicted that the inbound container volume in November and December will decrease by 14.4% and 17.9% year - on - year respectively, possibly falling below the key threshold of 2 million TEUs [10]. - The new Japanese government has clearly requested the Bank of Japan to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year to coordinate with the upcoming large - scale economic stimulus plan, but the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes show that it may implement the next interest rate hike as early as December [10]. - The Japanese government plans to raise the visa application fee for foreign visitors in 2026, which will be the first increase since 1978 if implemented [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - According to the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of this year, China's gold consumption was 682.73 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease, and the increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a 164.03% year - on - year increase, with a position of 193.749 tons at the end of September [11]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has announced that from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026, the trading fees for the international board Hong Kong inquiry contracts iPAu99.99HK and iPAu99.5HK will be waived. Also, since November 17, the minimum subscription and redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" will be reduced from 300,000 shares to 100,000 shares [12]. - On November 10, international precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.83% to 4123.40 US dollars/ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 4.70% to 50.41 US dollars/ounce [12]. - On November 10, the US crude oil main contract closed up 0.5% at 60.05 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 0.5% to 63.95 US dollars/barrel [12]. - On November 10, London's basic metals all rose, with LME copper rising 1.47% to 10874.50 US dollars/ton, LME aluminum rising 1.14% to 2880.50 US dollars/ton, etc. [13]. - On November 10, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1175 at 16:30, up 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1185 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0856, down 20 basis points from the previous trading day [13]. - The three major RMB exchange - rate indices refreshed their highs since April. In the week of November 7, the CFETS RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 97.96, up 0.35; the BIS currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 104.19, up 0.32; and the SDR currency - basket RMB exchange - rate index was reported at 92.34, up 0.08 [13]. - On November 10, at the end of the New York session, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.62, and non - US currencies showed mixed trends [14]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 10, the main contracts of stock index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a certain degree of strength, with small - scale rebounds. The report predicts that in November 2025, these contracts will likely have a wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, they will likely have a strong - biased oscillation [14][15][16][18][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 10, the ten - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures showed different trends. The ten - year Treasury bond futures T2512 had a small - scale rebound, while the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2512 continued to decline. The report predicts that on November 11, both contracts will likely have a wide - range oscillation [38][43][44]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 10, gold and silver futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will likely have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, the main contracts will likely have a strong - biased oscillation [45][51]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 10, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that in November 2025, the main continuous contracts of these metals will likely have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation, and on November 11, the main contracts will have different trends, such as copper having a strong - biased oscillation and aluminum oscillating and consolidating [54][58]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On November 10, crude oil, PTA, PVC, etc. showed different trends. The report predicts that on November 11, crude oil, PTA, and PVC futures will likely have a weak - biased oscillation [96][101][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with an overall outlook of weak operation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.57% to 15,035 yuan/ton, but the continued rise was blocked by the 10 - day moving average [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market saw profit - taking. After the rubber market returned to being dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, the rubber price was under pressure. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.34% to 10,230 yuan/ton, but there was resistance to continued rise [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the market shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment became cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 6, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and some other futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation; crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to have a weak - side oscillation; some futures such as alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook Highlights - Index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation. IF2512 has resistance levels at 4637 and 4653 points, and support levels at 4572 and 4536 points; IH2512 has resistance levels at 3030 and 3040 points, and support levels at 2992 and 2976 points; IC2512 has resistance levels at 7160 and 7210 points, and support levels at 7049 and 7000 points; IM2512 has resistance levels at 7365 and 7419 points, and support levels at 7257 and 7195 points [2]. - The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.80 and 108.85 yuan, and support levels at 108.58 and 108.53 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance levels at 116.8 and 117.2 yuan, and support levels at 116.1 and 116.0 yuan [2]. - Gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 921.9 and 927.3 yuan/gram, with support levels at 908.0 and 900.4 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver futures main contract AG2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 11455 and 11483 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11210 and 11103 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper futures main contract CU2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation, with resistance levels at 86100 and 86600 yuan/ton, and support levels at 85300 and 85000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 21500 and 21600 yuan/ton, with support levels at 21310 and 21260 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 2752 and 2740 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 2789 and 2816 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3009 and 2990 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3046 and 3068 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 3229 and 3194 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3264 and 3292 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 767 and 762 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 778 and 783 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1267 and 1280 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1250 and 1240 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 1112 and 1127 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1091 and 1072 yuan/ton [4]. - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 1209 and 1215 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1186 and 1175 yuan/ton [4]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 455 and 452 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 468 and 471 yuan/barrel [5]. - PTA futures main contract TA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4554 and 4520 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4610 and 4624 yuan/ton [5]. - PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 4600 and 4560 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 4654 and 4662 yuan/ton [5]. - Methanol futures main contract MA601 is likely to have a weak - side oscillation and will test the support levels of 2100 and 2080 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2141 and 2150 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 is likely to have a strong - side oscillation and will attack the resistance levels of 3094 and 3125 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3060 and 3046 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [7]. - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including measures related to tariffs and export controls [7]. - The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale reciprocal tariffs, and many conservative justices questioned its legality [9]. - The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [9]. - The EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% [10]. - The eurozone's October service PMI was 53%, pushing the composite PMI to a new high since May 2023 [10]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Index Futures - On November 5, the main contracts of index futures showed different trends. IF2512 had a slight increase, IH2512 had a slight decrease, IC2512 had a slight increase, and IM2512 had a slight increase. The A - share market had a slight increase, while the Hong Kong stock market had a slight decrease, and the US and European stock markets had increases [12][13][14][15][16]. - It is expected that in November 2025, the main contracts of index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM will likely have a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. - On November 6, index futures are expected to have a strong - side oscillation [17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 on November 5 had a slight decrease, with resistance at 108.80 yuan and support at 108.58 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [34][35]. - Thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 on November 5 had a 0.08% decrease, with resistance at 117.0 yuan and support at 116.34 yuan. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation on November 6 [37][38]. Gold Futures - Gold futures main contract AU2512 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 920.0 yuan/gram and support at 901.38 yuan/gram. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [41]. Silver Futures - Silver futures main contract AG2512 on November 5 had a 0.73% decrease, with resistance at 11351 yuan/kg and support at 11038 yuan/kg. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [46][47]. Copper Futures - Copper futures main contract CU2512 on November 5 had a 0.88% decrease, with resistance at 86000 yuan/ton and support at 85000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [51]. Aluminum Futures - Aluminum futures main contract AL2512 on November 5 had a 0.40% decrease, with resistance at 21465 yuan/ton and support at 21200 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [55][56]. Alumina Futures - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 on November 5 had a 0.11% decrease, with resistance at 2780 yuan/ton and support at 2750 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [60]. Rebar Futures - Rebar futures main contract RB2601 on November 5 had a 1.21% decrease, with resistance at 3046 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [65]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 on November 5 had a 0.85% decrease, with resistance at 3265 yuan/ton and support at 3229 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [69]. Iron Ore Futures - Iron ore futures main contract I2601 on November 5 had a 0.26% decrease, with resistance at 778 yuan/ton and support at 767 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [73]. Coking Coal Futures - Coking coal futures main contract JM2601 on November 5 had a 0.47% decrease, with resistance at 1277 yuan/ton and support at 1242 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [78]. Glass Futures - Glass futures main contract FG601 on November 5 had a 0.54% decrease, with resistance at 1126 yuan/ton and support at 1088 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and oscillate and consolidate on November 6 [81]. Soda Ash Futures - Soda ash futures main contract SA601 on November 5 had a 0.08% increase, with resistance at 1202 yuan/ton and support at 1186 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side wide - range oscillation in November 2025 and a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [87][88]. Crude Oil Futures - Crude oil futures main contract SC2512 on November 5 had a 0.37% decrease, with resistance at 466.1 yuan/barrel and support at 458.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation in November 2025 and a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [92]. PTA Futures - PTA futures main contract TA601 on November 5 had a 0.09% increase, with resistance at 4620 yuan/ton and support at 4554 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [97]. PVC Futures - PVC futures main contract V2601 on November 5 had a 0.77% decrease, with resistance at 4670 yuan/ton and support at 4620 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [99]. Methanol Futures - Methanol futures main contract MA601 on November 5 had a 0.94% increase, with resistance at 2150 yuan/ton and support at 2080 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a weak - side oscillation on November 6 [101]. Soybean Meal Futures - Soybean meal futures main contract M2601 on November 5 had a 1.49% increase, with resistance at 3088 yuan/ton and support at 3000 yuan/ton. It is expected to have a strong - side oscillation on November 6 [102].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the articles is the recent decline in benzene futures prices, with expectations of continued weak performance in the market due to supply and demand dynamics. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 31, benzene futures experienced a decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 5430.0 yuan and closing at 5477.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.71% [1] - The short-term outlook for benzene futures (BZ2603) is expected to be volatile, with a projected trading range between 5400 and 5600 yuan [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic benzene production has decreased due to lower operating rates in the downstream industry, while inventory levels have returned to neutral [2] - The supply of benzene is expected to remain high, with an increase in imports and ongoing operational adjustments in production facilities [3] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a surplus in benzene supply, with downstream demand not sufficiently absorbing the high levels of supply, leading to a continued weak market outlook [3]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from October 27 - 31, 2025 [1][2] Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week, with only a slight increase in the price of light soda ash in North China. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and the oversupply situation was hard to change. The price is expected to be stable but weak, and the trading center may move down further. The futures may be more affected by emotions in the short term due to the approaching policy window [7] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic soda ash market continued its weak trend last week, with prices generally falling. Affected by supply - demand imbalance, the market was under pressure. It was expected that the price would continue to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a limited downward space. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic soda ash market had a narrow - range oscillation last week. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated. The short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose, and the price will be stable but weak. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is still 1100 - 1250 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China (weekly). The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is slightly bearish, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [12][16][18][22] Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The spot price of float glass in China dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton last week, with significant declines in the southwest, north, and northeast. Supply was abundant, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weak - oscillation pattern is expected to continue. The glass futures reached a new low after a one - sided decline and then stabilized weakly. The market is still bearish, and the follow - up should focus on policies and seasonal changes [30] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week, with prices falling in most regions. Demand recovered slowly, inventory pressure remained, and supply increase expectations further suppressed the market. The short - term narrow - range oscillation was expected to continue, and the futures also weakened [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The spot price of float glass in China dropped last week. Supply - demand was loose, inventory accumulated, and demand was weak. The short - term weakness is expected to continue. The futures were under pressure, and the rebound power was insufficient [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bearish, the capital inflow is large, and the risk of a market reversal is high [36][39][41][46]