Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction zone [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, while the composite PMI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, suggesting overall economic recovery [1] - The hospitality and new orders indices in the accommodation sector, although still below 50%, showed significant month-on-month increases of over 5 percentage points, indicating strong consumer activity during the summer [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent demand issues that negatively impact certain industrial product prices, such as steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The input price index for raw materials stands at 53.3%, reflecting a 1.8% increase, which suggests rising cost pressures that may benefit energy, non-ferrous, and steel sectors [1] - The economic recovery is characterized as weak, with production recovery outpacing demand, indicating that companies may face challenges in increasing efficiency despite production increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the futures market, particularly in the black and new energy metal sectors, driven by a cooling of market sentiment and substantial capital outflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the black series led the decline, with coking coal dropping over 10%, glass down more than 7%, lithium carbonate falling over 6%, and soda ash decreasing over 4% [2]. - Following the overnight declines, more commodities experienced a cascading drop, with coking coal and glass leading the way, coking coal falling over 12% and glass over 10% [3]. - By 10:30 AM, some commodities showed slight rebounds, but overall, the market sentiment remained pessimistic with significant capital outflows across various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The overall capital flow in the market has shown a continuous outflow trend, with a notable shift in sentiment as profit-taking by long positions began after last Friday's night session [4]. - On July 28, the total capital outflow in the commodity futures market reached 20.29 billion yuan, with the black chain seeing an outflow of 8.5 billion yuan and precious metals and coal sectors around 5 billion yuan each [4]. - The black sector and new energy metals were particularly sensitive to capital outflows, indicating a lack of significant improvement in supply-demand fundamentals without new industrial policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - In the first half of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to a 2.8% decline in producer prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that future commodity prices may become more structured, with the overall push for PPI recovery being more critical than the height of the market [5]. - The rise of the US dollar has emerged as a significant variable affecting the commodity market, with the dollar index increasing by 1%, marking the largest single-day gain since May [6].

Group 1 - In May, the national futures trading market in China reported a trading volume of 678,609,037 contracts and a turnover of 54,729.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - Eramet Comilog announced the price for Gabonese manganese ore (Mn44.5%) at $4.25 per ton (CIF, main port of China), which is a decrease of $0.15 per ton compared to June [1] - The national building materials social inventory reached 5.5224 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons or 0.32% from the previous week, while factory inventory decreased by 129,700 tons or 3.98% to 3.1318 million tons [1] Group 2 - TA Securities analyst Angeline Chin forecasts a decline in crude palm oil prices in the second half of 2025 due to strong production and slowing global demand amid economic uncertainty [2] - The National Grain Trade Center planned to auction 117,758 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of 15,899 tons at an average price of 3,680 yuan per ton, resulting in a transaction rate of 13.5% [2] - The South Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association reported a 16.71% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield and a 17.24% reduction in production from June 1-10, 2025 [2] Group 3 - As of June 6, the deliverable inventory of soybeans at CBOT was 9.343 million bushels, a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week but an increase of 98.20% compared to the same period last year [2] - A lead smelting company in Southwest China plans to conduct maintenance for a week starting in late June, which is expected to affect daily lead ingot production by approximately 300 tons, although overall monthly production is not anticipated to be impacted [2]