当前，我国正处在推动高质量发展、扎实推进中国式现代化的关键时期。2025年12月召开的中央经 济工作会议强调，要"更好统筹发展和安全""建设强大国内市场""因地制宜发展新质生产力"。这一部署 与此前中央金融工作会议所明确的"做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五篇大 文章"的核心要求一脉相承。在此战略指引下，金融与实体经济的关系亟待一场深刻的范式革新。 传统的供应链金融模式，长期依赖于对宏观经济周期与行业景气度的整体判断，形成了"板块式"的 信贷思维。这种视角在面对具体企业的微观经营时，已显露出其固有的局限性——它难以精准识别不同 企业真实的生存韧性与风险内核，更难以有效支撑国家在复杂外部环境下对战略资源保障和产业链韧性 的宏观布局。 因此，一种更为精细、更为本质的视角转型势在必行：供应链金融必须超越对"行业"标签的依赖， 将风控与服务的焦点，下沉至企业经营中真正可量化、可交易、可管理的核心标的——大宗商品本身。 这并非简单的工具叠加，而是一场致力于落实中央金融工作会议精神、做优金融"五篇大文章"、从方法 论到实践逻辑的根本性升维。本文旨在阐明，唯有确立并践行"大宗商品视角"，金融方能穿透行业 ...

贵金属市场本周表现抢眼，白银期货以超过6%的涨幅成为市场焦点。白银的强势表现主要受到两方面 因素推动：一是市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期升温，特别是对新任主席可能延续宽松政策的猜测； 二是全球主要铜生产商联合声明引发了市场对铜矿产能调整的担忧，白银作为副产品供给可能相应收 缩。但投资者需保持警惕，一旦地缘政治风险缓和或者利多因素出尽，银价可能出现技术性回调。 需求提振 棕榈油持续上涨 本周国内商品期货市场呈现明显分化格局，有色金属和贵金属表现抢眼，而能源化工板块延续弱势。具 体来看，沪铜以超过2%的涨幅领跑有色金属板块，沪锌跟涨1.4%；贵金属方面，白银期货表现尤为亮 眼，涨幅超过6%；农产品板块中，棕榈油涨幅超过1%，豆粕则几乎持平；工业品方面，合成橡胶和黑 色系品种表现不俗，其中焦炭大涨超3%，铁矿石也录得1%以上的涨幅。 供应紧张 推高铜价创历史新高 本周有色金属板块整体表现强劲，其中沪铜期货价格突破关键阻力位，创下历史新高。伦敦金属交易所 铜价和上海期货交易所沪铜价格同步上涨，这一现象主要受到供应紧张和需求增长的双重推动。供给 端，智利等主要产铜国产量不及预期，铜精矿短缺导致加工费维持低位；需求端，新 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction zone [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, while the composite PMI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, suggesting overall economic recovery [1] - The hospitality and new orders indices in the accommodation sector, although still below 50%, showed significant month-on-month increases of over 5 percentage points, indicating strong consumer activity during the summer [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent demand issues that negatively impact certain industrial product prices, such as steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The input price index for raw materials stands at 53.3%, reflecting a 1.8% increase, which suggests rising cost pressures that may benefit energy, non-ferrous, and steel sectors [1] - The economic recovery is characterized as weak, with production recovery outpacing demand, indicating that companies may face challenges in increasing efficiency despite production increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the futures market, particularly in the black and new energy metal sectors, driven by a cooling of market sentiment and substantial capital outflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the black series led the decline, with coking coal dropping over 10%, glass down more than 7%, lithium carbonate falling over 6%, and soda ash decreasing over 4% [2]. - Following the overnight declines, more commodities experienced a cascading drop, with coking coal and glass leading the way, coking coal falling over 12% and glass over 10% [3]. - By 10:30 AM, some commodities showed slight rebounds, but overall, the market sentiment remained pessimistic with significant capital outflows across various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The overall capital flow in the market has shown a continuous outflow trend, with a notable shift in sentiment as profit-taking by long positions began after last Friday's night session [4]. - On July 28, the total capital outflow in the commodity futures market reached 20.29 billion yuan, with the black chain seeing an outflow of 8.5 billion yuan and precious metals and coal sectors around 5 billion yuan each [4]. - The black sector and new energy metals were particularly sensitive to capital outflows, indicating a lack of significant improvement in supply-demand fundamentals without new industrial policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - In the first half of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to a 2.8% decline in producer prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that future commodity prices may become more structured, with the overall push for PPI recovery being more critical than the height of the market [5]. - The rise of the US dollar has emerged as a significant variable affecting the commodity market, with the dollar index increasing by 1%, marking the largest single-day gain since May [6].

Group 1 - In May, the national futures trading market in China reported a trading volume of 678,609,037 contracts and a turnover of 54,729.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - Eramet Comilog announced the price for Gabonese manganese ore (Mn44.5%) at $4.25 per ton (CIF, main port of China), which is a decrease of $0.15 per ton compared to June [1] - The national building materials social inventory reached 5.5224 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons or 0.32% from the previous week, while factory inventory decreased by 129,700 tons or 3.98% to 3.1318 million tons [1] Group 2 - TA Securities analyst Angeline Chin forecasts a decline in crude palm oil prices in the second half of 2025 due to strong production and slowing global demand amid economic uncertainty [2] - The National Grain Trade Center planned to auction 117,758 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of 15,899 tons at an average price of 3,680 yuan per ton, resulting in a transaction rate of 13.5% [2] - The South Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association reported a 16.71% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield and a 17.24% reduction in production from June 1-10, 2025 [2] Group 3 - As of June 6, the deliverable inventory of soybeans at CBOT was 9.343 million bushels, a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week but an increase of 98.20% compared to the same period last year [2] - A lead smelting company in Southwest China plans to conduct maintenance for a week starting in late June, which is expected to affect daily lead ingot production by approximately 300 tons, although overall monthly production is not anticipated to be impacted [2]