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2025H2,AI,爱还是不爱?
雪球· 2025-06-04 07:52
Group 1: Core Views - The new AI legislation has eliminated uncertainties in global markets for Nvidia outside of China, boosting market confidence with significant projects like Stargate [2] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded to early 2025 averages, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while Broadcom approaches historical highs [2] - The US stock market appears to be pricing around the Blackwell generation, with companies like Amphenol and Viavi Technologies being key players in this trend [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share players are mirroring the logic of the US market, focusing on the pricing recovery of the Blackwell generation while also considering geopolitical risks and technological upgrades [5][6] - Key components for the Blackwell generation include copper cables, optical modules, and PCBs, with PCB production largely unaffected by tariffs due to its export routes [7] - Companies like Shenghong Technology and New Ease have seen significant recovery in market performance, driven by public fund investments [7] Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - Domestic computing power is currently in a phase of consolidation, influenced by factors such as the growth outlook from SMIC and new chip regulations that have halved upstream chip supply [9][10] - The emergence of numerous participants in AIDC has raised concerns about increased competition, as highlighted by recent Q1 financial reports [10] - National-level attention is being directed towards the coordination of AIDC infrastructure to avoid redundant construction [10] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The pricing recovery for Blackwell is expected to complete by the end of June, with future focus on the GB300 and Rubin architectures [12] - The evolution of AI cluster systems is shifting towards "interconnectivity," necessitating innovations in hardware architecture to meet new demands [13] - Opportunities in domestic computing power are anticipated to arise from centralized computing and collaborative innovation between hardware and software [14] Group 5: FAQs - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is recognized as a trend, with uncertainties primarily related to tariff barriers that could limit market access [16] - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to rise as chip complexity increases, although potential shifts in demand due to new technologies like CPO and OIO are noted [17] - The large-scale commercialization of Blackwell is projected to significantly increase the market for 200G/λ, with SiPho technology poised to gain a competitive edge [18]