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黑色金属日报-20260119
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 11:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are experiencing price declines and need to focus on cost support and the impact of "anti - involution" [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. The apparent demand for thread steel increased, production slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coil improved, production slightly increased, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance capacity, blast furnace复产 slowed, and hot metal production decreased. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while steel exports remained high. Steel prices followed the cost center down and were mainly in range - bound oscillation [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened significantly today, and the basis recently narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week but was still stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly but were still higher year - on - year, while non - mainstream shipments increased week - on - week. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but it increased significantly compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, hot metal production stopped increasing and started to decline. The inventory of imported ores in steel mills increased, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still existed. It's expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coking profits were average, and daily production slightly decreased. Coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream hot metal production remained at a low level. The coke futures price had a premium, and the price was likely to follow a weak oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1465 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions improved. The terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal increased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream hot metal production remained at a low level, and the price was likely to be weakly volatile [5] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated downward during the day. There were structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore was likely to increase. The hot metal production decreased seasonally, the weekly production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" and the cost support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market expected a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The hot metal production rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand decreased, and the production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month. The overall demand was still resilient. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" and the cost support [7]