焦煤焦炭月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-2-27 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 展望3月，焦煤在库存结构改善及政策预期下，盘面下方存支撑，上方空间受到节后下游需求增量空间受限压制，震 荡运行为主。从焦煤基本面看，2026年2月受春节假期影响，炼焦煤供应季节性收缩。随着春节假期结束，供应将逐 步恢复，但受今年春节假期较晚以及3月国内两会影响，炼焦煤供应恢复力度仍有限。春节前在下游冬储的带动下， 炼焦煤上游库存持续去化，库存结构较去年同期有明显改善，库存压力有所缓解。2月独立焦企和钢厂炼焦煤库存呈 现"先增后降"态势，为保证春节期间的正常生产，节前进行补库，春节期间消耗自身库存为主。随着春节假期结束， 集中补库力度减弱，后续刚需补库为主。由于市场预期仍未好转，预计维持低库存策略。 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 展望3月，焦炭盘面跟随焦煤成本端波动，焦化厂累库压力使得其价格弹性较弱。从焦炭基本面看，独立焦企和钢厂 焦炭产量维持稳定，独立焦企在利润改善情况下，开工意愿好于去年。2月以来铁水产量小幅回升，高炉春节期间开 工正常，铁水产量未受假期影响。随 ...

| | | | | | | | H色金属地理干燥 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/27 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：春节下游走弱 市场偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看,当前国产铝土矿货源较为充足，短期价格持稳 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of futures tools in managing market risks and stabilizing production for steel traders during the New Year season [1][2] - Steel traders are shifting from speculative trading to a more stable approach, focusing on physical market fundamentals and risk management strategies [2][3] - The concept of "winter storage" is highlighted as a critical annual decision for steel traders, with strategies like price locking and phased purchasing being employed to mitigate risks [3][4] Group 2 - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation where the core competitiveness is shifting from resource-based advantages to service-oriented strategies [4] - Companies are increasingly offering customized services and financial solutions to retain customers and adapt to market changes [4][5] - The article showcases the role of industry leaders like Ren Xiangjun, who actively engage with peers and share knowledge to foster stability in the steel market [5][7] Group 3 - The mindset of steel traders is crucial, with a focus on hard work and realistic expectations in a challenging market environment [8] - The article illustrates how traders like Li Baowei and Ren Xiangjun embody resilience and innovation, navigating through uncertainties by refining their business strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-13 节前需求回落，盘⾯表现承压 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。铁矿⽯ 总库存压⼒持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期⼀般，盘⾯表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进⼊尾 声，需求⽀撑有限，盘⾯低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价 格。 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。铁矿石 总库存压力持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进入尾 声，需求支撑有限，盘面低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价 格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，钢厂补库基本结 束，预计节前现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode, resulting in a continued reduction in the overall production of the five major steel products, except for medium - thick plates which are still increasing production [5]. - Steel inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, with the overall social inventory pressure being greater than the factory inventory. The demand for building materials is rapidly declining as downstream construction sites are gradually shutting down, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is also decreasing due to factors such as the decline in export licenses and the end of restocking by overseas manufacturing industries. However, the decline in demand for cold - rolled products still shows some resilience [5]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival. After the festival, capital expenditure may fall short of expectations, and the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the level of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Steel Spot Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3120 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan, with no price changes [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel is 1690000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 225200 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 1019100 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 39.6% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 457300 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 99400 tons, the social inventory increased by 573100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 672500 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production of hot - rolled coils this week is 3077600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14000 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 2961900 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.17% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 93500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 11000 tons, the social inventory increased by 104700 tons, and the total inventory increased by 115700 tons [9][10]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, and various profit and cost charts. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1120.00 | -3.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1664.00 | -3.00↓ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 617345.00 | -24712.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 40629.00 | +433.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86186.00 | +5019.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -369.00 | -19.00↓ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 80.00 | 0.00 J9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 75.00 | 0.00 | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 2000.00 | +300.00↑ 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1380.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 1018.00 | 0.00 唐山一级冶金焦（日，元/吨 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：长假前市场谨慎 关注宏观波动 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上非农就业者上个月增加了 13 万人， 失业率下降至 4.3%，就业数据表现强于预期，促使交易员下调对美联储今 年降息幅度的预期。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-12 淡季⽭盾积累，盘⾯表现承压 钢材节前需求回落，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。钢⼚复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯⽀撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 钢材节前需求回落，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。钢厂复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面支撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾 声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤 ...