Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under short-term pressure for adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price corrected from its high. Due to the easing of sentiment and profit - taking by long positions, the previous risk premium was retracted. The stronger US dollar and tightened liquidity expectations suppressed the valuation of commodities [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have affected the supply in the Middle East, with a decrease in daily output expected [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory, but the pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory accumulation slope has shown signs of moderation. As of March 19, the inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the price of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The Back structure has weakened. Domestic high inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector declined today due to news about coking coal warehouse receipts. The spot trading volume of steel products was generally weak, with downstream industries gradually resuming operations, low speculative sentiment, and mainly low - price transactions [5]. - Last week's data showed that the production of the five major steel products continued to decrease, and steel mills were still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. As the Spring Festival approaches, the total steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than the mill inventory [5]. - Affected by the downstream shutdown during the festival, steel demand is still declining rapidly. Overseas manufacturing has gradually ended restocking, and hot - rolled coils have entered the off - season of demand, but the decline in demand is less than that of building materials [5]. - The overall fundamentals of steel continue to weaken. The enthusiasm for winter storage this year is insufficient. Currently, steel inventory is high, and post - holiday capital expenditure may fall short of expectations. The recovery of demand remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the production of molten iron this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. - However, the absolute price of steel is currently low, so the downward space is relatively limited. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the black metal sector. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. But steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and the pressure on steel prices remains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3160 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3100 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan (-) [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategies** - Affected by the news of coking coal warehouse receipts, the black metal sector declined today. The overall spot trading volume of steel products was weak, and the downstream was still in the process of resuming. The speculation sentiment was weak, and low - price transactions were the main form. The fundamentals of steel continued to weaken, and the enthusiasm for winter storage this year was insufficient. Although the absolute price of steel was low and the downward space was limited, the pressure on steel prices remained. It is necessary to pay attention to the production of molten iron, downstream demand, overseas geopolitical frictions, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [7]. - **Important Information** - According to the production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production scheduling volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March 2026 is 39.11 million units, a 4.0% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year. Specifically, the production scheduling of household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a 6.1% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of refrigerators is 8.43 million units, a 1.6% increase compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of washing machines is 7.34 million units, a 3.4% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [7][8]. - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the base price of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts), the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, the cash profit of different regions and production processes, and the cost of electric furnaces. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][15][17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In March, coking coal will mainly fluctuate. The lower limit of the coking coal futures price is supported by improved inventory structure and policy expectations, while the upside is restricted by limited incremental demand from downstream after the Spring Festival [8]. - In March, the coke futures price will follow the cost - end of coking coal. The inventory accumulation pressure of coking plants weakens its price elasticity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Coking Coal: In February 2026, coking coal supply seasonally shrank due to the Spring Festival. After the holiday, supply will gradually recover, but the recovery is limited due to the late Spring Festival and the Two Sessions in March. Before the Spring Festival, upstream coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventory structure improved compared to the same period last year. In February, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [8]. - Coke: The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. Independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory, while steel mills consumed inventory. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [11]. 3.2焦煤基本面 (Coking Coal Fundamentals) - Supply: As of the week of February 30, the coking coal production ratio of 523 sample mines was 68.24%, up 19.35% from the Spring Festival, but 15.55% lower than the same period last year. The daily average output of clean coal was 649,000 tons, an increase of 190,200 tons from the Spring Festival but a decrease of 83,100 tons from the same period last year. The production ratio of 314 sample coal washing plants was 22.73%, 9.55% lower than before the festival, and the daily average output of clean coal was 169,100 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons from before the festival. As of the weekly statistics on February 23, the customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu was 279,315 tons, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal also decreased significantly during the Chinese Spring Festival. Overall, coking coal supply seasonally shrank in February 2026, and the supply recovery after the holiday is limited [14]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.5766 million tons, 1.3192 million tons less than the same period last year; the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 2.9893 million tons, 72,000 tons less than the same period last year; the port inventory was 2.7197 million tons, 1.4413 million tons less than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9886 million tons, 1.9978 million tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.68 days, 2.27 days more than last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9246 million tons, 236,800 tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 12.65 days, 0.38 days more than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased in February. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [17][18]. 3.3焦炭基本面 (Coke Fundamentals) - Production: As of the week of February 27, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.36%, 2.75% higher than the same period last year, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 642,900 tons, 41,000 tons more than the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.09%, 0.97% lower than the same period last year, and the daily average output of coke was 471,000 tons, 1,000 tons more than the same period last year. The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable during the Spring Festival, and independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits [21]. - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.3328 million tons, 534,000 tons more than the same period last year; the domestic sample coke consumption was 1.0498 million tons, 241,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported [23]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.0782 million tons, 554,400 tons less than the same period last year but 250,200 tons more than before the festival; the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.7511 million tons, 58,400 tons less than the same period last year and 228,000 tons less than before the festival, and the available inventory days were 12.41 days, 0.99 days less than the same period last year and 0.29 days less than before the festival; the port inventory was 1.971 million tons, 69,500 tons more than the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory due to poor output digestion, while steel mills consumed inventory [26]. - Profit: Since February, the coke spot market has not seen price increases or decreases, and the price has mainly remained stable. As of the week of February 27, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 7 yuan/ton, significantly improved compared to January and a reduction of losses by 64 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, remaining relatively stable but 10.39% lower than the same period last year. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market's futures price rally lacks sustainability, and the spot market has weak drivers. The inventory is still accumulating, but the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The key is to observe the post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions [2] - Due to the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains [3] - After a pulse - like rebound, coking coal and coke prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the recovery of the demand side is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the iron ore price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 26, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3097.00 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, HC2610 at 3239.00 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3063.00 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, HC2605 at 3218.00 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase [1] - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2605 - 2610 at - 34.00 yuan/ton with a 3.00 yuan increase on February 26. The spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 155.00 yuan/ton with a - 5.00 yuan change [1] Spot Market - On February 26, Shanghai rebar was at 3200.00 yuan/ton with no price change, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3210.00 yuan/ton with a - 60.00 yuan decrease. The prices of other spot products also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The futures price rally lacks continuity, and the spot market has entered an adjustment phase. The inventory is still accumulating, and the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions are key factors [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support has strengthened, and industrial policies may affect supply [3] Coking Coal and Coke - After a pulse - like rebound, the prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side's recovery is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] Iron Ore - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Investment Recommendations - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For coking coal and coke, unilateral traders should wait and see, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be established on rallies [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a short - term sideways trend, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, most of the rest will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum moved in a sideways trend. The strong US employment data in January reduced the urgency of the Fed's mid - year rate cut again. Although there are signs of resilience in the US labor market, suggesting that the Fed may remain on hold for a long time, the US dollar still weakened [3] - Currently, domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and the short - term price remains stable. For imported ore, due to the falling ore price, alumina plants' purchasing willingness is still weak, and with the early annual maintenance plans of some alumina plants and high absolute inventory, the purchasing demand is weak, and the imported ore price is under pressure [4] - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was 52.8%, a significant 5.1 - percentage - point decrease from last week, with significant differentiation among sectors. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises decreased by 3 percentage points to 63.0%, the operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 57.3%, the weekly operating rate of aluminum cable enterprises was 53%, a 5 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 25.5%, a 10.5 - percentage - point decrease [4] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots across the country has started to accumulate about two months before the Spring Festival. As of February 9, it reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. With the recent price decline, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but overall, it is difficult to see obvious improvement in the downstream before the Spring Festival [4] - Before the festival, there is no obvious macro boost. The linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, the market trading sentiment is cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. Be vigilant against the risks after the festival caused by external market fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of futures tools in managing market risks and stabilizing production for steel traders during the New Year season [1][2] - Steel traders are shifting from speculative trading to a more stable approach, focusing on physical market fundamentals and risk management strategies [2][3] - The concept of "winter storage" is highlighted as a critical annual decision for steel traders, with strategies like price locking and phased purchasing being employed to mitigate risks [3][4] Group 2 - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation where the core competitiveness is shifting from resource-based advantages to service-oriented strategies [4] - Companies are increasingly offering customized services and financial solutions to retain customers and adapt to market changes [4][5] - The article showcases the role of industry leaders like Ren Xiangjun, who actively engage with peers and share knowledge to foster stability in the steel market [5][7] Group 3 - The mindset of steel traders is crucial, with a focus on hard work and realistic expectations in a challenging market environment [8] - The article illustrates how traders like Li Baowei and Ren Xiangjun embody resilience and innovation, navigating through uncertainties by refining their business strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - As the holiday approaches, the inventory of steel products accumulates rapidly, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market shows weakness. The total inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. There are disturbances on the coal supply side, with more coal mines taking holidays before the Spring Festival, but the coal - coke replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand support is limited, resulting in wide - range oscillations at a low level in the futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices. Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and there is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the holiday, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill resumption still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [4] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal will continue to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will still be restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to the influence of capital sentiment [4] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [4] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The market transactions are light around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will run at a low level around the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: Before the holiday, the supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market shows weakness. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill resumption rhythm is accelerating, but the five major steel products' output is decreasing month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. There is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space is limited [10] - Iron ore: The hot metal output has slightly rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased. The global shipment volume has slightly declined month - on - month. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, the demand is stable, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [10] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are seasonally decreasing, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [12] - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the replenishment is basically completed. The supply has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is in a healthy supply - demand structure. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market will follow the coking coal [13][14] - Coking coal: The middle and upstream are de - stocking before the festival, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The supply is expected to decline before the holiday, the import is at a high level, the demand is decreasing, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely [15][16] - Glass: The contradictions before the holiday are limited, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has disturbance expectations, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] - Soda ash: The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has rebounded month - on - month, the demand is weakening, the supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17][19] - Manganese silicon: The cost is firm, and the post - holiday inventory is expected to increase. The upstream inventory is high, the cost is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply is strong. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate around the cost [19][20] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and the cost support still exists. The cost support is strengthening, the demand is weakening, the supply is at a low level, and it is expected that the futures price will run at a low level around the cost [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode, resulting in a continued reduction in the overall production of the five major steel products, except for medium - thick plates which are still increasing production [5]. - Steel inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, with the overall social inventory pressure being greater than the factory inventory. The demand for building materials is rapidly declining as downstream construction sites are gradually shutting down, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is also decreasing due to factors such as the decline in export licenses and the end of restocking by overseas manufacturing industries. However, the decline in demand for cold - rolled products still shows some resilience [5]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival. After the festival, capital expenditure may fall short of expectations, and the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the level of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Steel Spot Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3120 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan, with no price changes [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel is 1690000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 225200 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 1019100 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 39.6% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 457300 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 99400 tons, the social inventory increased by 573100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 672500 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production of hot - rolled coils this week is 3077600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14000 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 2961900 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.17% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 93500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 11000 tons, the social inventory increased by 104700 tons, and the total inventory increased by 115700 tons [9][10]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, and various profit and cost charts. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19].