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煤焦:高炉减产预期强化盘面弱势震荡
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 08:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of domestic steel mills' blast furnace production cuts has strengthened, which will have a phased impact on raw material demand. Short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and the price volatility of coking coal and coke has intensified [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Last week, the coal mine accident and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts only drove the commodity price up on Monday, and then the price weakened again. There is no further upward driver in the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the recent steel mill production restrictions [2] - On the spot side, the high - price resources of some coal mines have weak trading, and the price remains stable. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei region started the 8th round of price increase, but the mainstream steel mills have not responded [2] Environmental Protection and Production Restrictions - According to Mysteel's research, steel mills in the Tangshan area will gradually shut down and overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be overhauled, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116600 tons (including the previously overhauled blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared with the current (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared with the same period last year [2] Coal Mine End - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3, coal mines in the main production areas will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts [2]