负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 煤焦：焦炭第 6 轮提涨落地 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 煤焦 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 近日大商所发布对焦煤期货的交易限额通知，非期货公司会员或者客 户在焦煤期货 JM2601 合约上单日开仓量不得超过 1,000 手，在焦煤期货 JM2509 合约上单日开仓量不得超过 500 手，在焦煤期货其他合约上单日 开仓量不得超过 2,000 手。另外，对焦煤 01 合约的日内投机交易手续费 率由成交额的万分之 1 调整为万分之 2。交易规则收紧促使焦煤市场情绪 有所降温。 基本面上，煤矿核查超产政策正在推进中，叠加临近 9 月大阅兵，安 监形势严峻，短期煤矿生产以稳为主。焦煤结构性库存压力得到明显缓解， 但随着煤价抬升，下游采购节奏已有所放缓，本周矿端库存低位企稳。据 Mysteel 调研，预计下周煤矿仍大概率延续复产节奏，但在多重因素扰动 之下，煤矿增产进度缓慢，且疲软的增产进度极易受到突发事件的冲击而 中断。本 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing slow recovery in production, leading to a joint price increase initiative by industry associations, raising concerns about whether the current price of 900 yuan for coking coal is a peak or a starting point [1] Group 1: Industry Analysis - The coal mining sector is facing challenges with production resumption, which is slower than expected [1] - Industry associations are collaborating to implement price increases in response to the production issues [1] - The current price of 900 yuan for coking coal raises questions about its sustainability and future trends in the market [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The change in coal mine production rhythm disturbs market sentiment. Currently, coal mine inventories remain at a high level, and coal price rebounds are hindered. Continuously monitor the resumption of coal mine production [3] Group 3 Logic - Yesterday, news of coal mine resumption cooled bullish sentiment, and coal and coke futures prices continued to decline in a volatile manner. On the spot side, after the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the market remained stable. The coking coal market generally maintained a weak and stable operation [2] Market - According to institutional research, some previously shut - down coal mines in the Shanxi region have plans to resume production. A large shut - down mine in Xiangning is going through the resumption acceptance procedures, with an expected resumption time of July 3 - 4. The mine was shut down for rectification due to safety reasons on June 1, and as of now, it has been shut down for 30 days, affecting daily raw coal production by 620,000 tons. In addition, the current round of ecological and environmental protection supervision teams has completed their inspection in Shanxi, and shut - down coal mines will gradually resume production [2] Data - Last week, the daily output of raw coal from coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons. Raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179,000 tons; clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 361,000 tons [3]

Core Viewpoint - Daya Energy's subsidiary Mengjin Coal Mine has resumed operations after a 38-day shutdown due to an accident, which is expected to positively impact the company's coal production in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Operations - Mengjin Coal Mine has a certified production capacity of 1.2 million tons per year, accounting for 7.84% of the company's total capacity [1]. - In 2024, Mengjin Coal Mine produced 1.2305 million tons of commercial coal, generating revenue of 581 million yuan, representing 12.71% and 11.78% of the company's total production and revenue, respectively [1]. - The mine's production in Q1 2025 was 238,400 tons, with revenue of 106 million yuan, contributing 8.82% and 9.81% to the company's respective totals [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Daya Energy reported a net loss of 1.091 billion yuan in 2024, attributed to a decline in average coal prices by approximately 106 yuan per ton, which reduced total profit by about 1 billion yuan [2]. - The company experienced a year-on-year increase in coal production of 546,400 tons and sales of 358,200 tons in 2024, which positively impacted total profit by approximately 420 million yuan [2]. - Overall, the company's total profit decreased by about 580 million yuan in 2024 due to a combination of factors including increased coal production and changes in coal quality [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the resumption of operations at Mengjin Coal Mine and the recent approval for the Yengcun Coal Mine's 15th mining area to resume production, Daya Energy's overall coal output is expected to increase [3]. - The Yengcun Coal Mine has a certified production capacity of 3.6 million tons per year, representing 23.53% of the company's total capacity, and its production is projected to increase by approximately 1 million tons following the resumption [3].