本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 金像电子 本文内容由 Kylie Kwok (郭凯欣) 提供 2368 TT 中国台湾科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 层层叠加 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 27 日发布的题为《Layers upon layers》的报告，金像电子正进入多年上行周期，受惠于新一代 ASIC 平台（包括 AWS Trainium3 和 Google TPU v8）中 PCB 含量的结构性提升。尽管台湾、苏州和泰国积极扩产，高端 AI/ASIC PCB 供应仍然紧张，支撑公司有利 的定价和强劲的盈利能见度。随着超大规模客户需求加速，以及新增产能将于 2026 年二季度上线，分析指出金像电 子盈利存在上行风险。 Google 已经持续扩大 PCB 的采购，以支持加速增长的 TPU 需求。中信里昂认为金像电子在高端 ...

Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 22, 2025, the spot price of tin in the Changjiang market is 341,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day, continuing a recent rebound trend [1] - The current tin price is at a historically high level, with strong upward momentum expected to persist in the short term [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - The recent price increase is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, macroeconomic shifts, and emerging demand [1] - Supply-side factors include a persistent tightness in raw materials, with significant disruptions in key production areas like Myanmar and Indonesia, leading to a sharp decline in tin ore imports to China [1] - Global visible inventories are at historically low levels, with LME tin stocks hovering near a ten-year low, providing solid support for spot prices [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - Global liquidity expectations are easing, with major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, entering a rate-cutting phase, which enhances the attractiveness of metals for investment [1] - Geopolitical risks, particularly conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Southeast Asia, are injecting additional supply risk premiums into the tin market [1] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Despite a lackluster performance in traditional consumer electronics, emerging sectors such as AI, data centers, and high-end computing are experiencing explosive growth, driving demand for high-end solder [2] - The green industries, including photovoltaic solder strips and electric vehicle electronics, are also showing robust demand, becoming new growth drivers for tin consumption [2] Group 5: Industry Impact - The current high price environment is significantly altering the profit distribution within the industry, with upstream resource holders benefiting the most from price surges [2] - Midstream smelting companies are facing a divided situation, with smaller firms struggling due to intense competition for raw materials and low processing fees [2] Group 6: Short-term Price Outlook - In the short term (1-2 weeks), tin prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, with a core operating range projected between 340,000 and 349,000 yuan/ton, and a key resistance level at 350,000 yuan/ton [3] - Upward risks are primarily from unexpected supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected macroeconomic easing, while downward risks include demand suppression due to high prices and potential recovery of Myanmar's supply in early 2026 [3]