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森麒麟(002984):Q3 销量及收入创新高,摩洛哥爬坡过程中
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-03 11:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high sales and revenue in Q3, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2% [5][6]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a one-time tax refund received in the previous year and the impact of U.S. trade tariffs affecting profitability [5]. - The company’s tire sales volume remained stable at approximately 23.31 million units for the first three quarters, with a notable recovery in Q3 [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 8.511 billion yuan - 2025: 8.699 billion yuan - 2026: 10.649 billion yuan - 2027: 12.151 billion yuan - The expected growth rates for total revenue are 8.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, 22.4% for 2026, and 14.1% for 2027 [4][6]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025: 1.407 billion yuan - 2026: 1.820 billion yuan - 2027: 2.101 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 23.8% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 25.5% by 2027 [4][6]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s Q3 tire sales volume reached approximately 8.44 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.7% [5]. - The recovery in sales is attributed to improved production rates at the Qingdao plant and the gradual ramp-up of the Morocco facility [5][6]. - The Morocco facility is expected to contribute significantly to sales in the coming years, with sufficient orders in hand [5][6].
森麒麟(002984):Q3销量及收入创新高,摩洛哥爬坡过程中
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-03 10:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high sales and revenue in Q3, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 1.015 billion yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year [6][5] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a one-time tax refund received in the previous year and the impact of U.S. trade tariffs on profitability [6] - The company's tire sales remained stable, with approximately 23.31 million tires sold in the first three quarters, showing a slight increase in Q3 [6] - The Moroccan production base is in a ramp-up phase, contributing to sales growth, although it is still in a loss-making position due to depreciation costs [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 8.699 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.407 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 35.6% year-on-year [5] - The company expects to maintain a high operating rate at its existing bases in Qingdao and Thailand while gradually increasing output from the Moroccan base [6] - The projected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.820 billion yuan and 2.101 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11 and 10 [6][5]