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森麒麟(002984):Q3销量及收入创新高,摩洛哥爬坡过程中
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high sales and revenue in Q3, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 1.015 billion yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year [6][5] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a one-time tax refund received in the previous year and the impact of U.S. trade tariffs on profitability [6] - The company's tire sales remained stable, with approximately 23.31 million tires sold in the first three quarters, showing a slight increase in Q3 [6] - The Moroccan production base is in a ramp-up phase, contributing to sales growth, although it is still in a loss-making position due to depreciation costs [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 8.699 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.407 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 35.6% year-on-year [5] - The company expects to maintain a high operating rate at its existing bases in Qingdao and Thailand while gradually increasing output from the Moroccan base [6] - The projected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.820 billion yuan and 2.101 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11 and 10 [6][5]