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日本新首相经济政策延续“安倍经济学”,央行:动态完善货币政策框架|每周金融评论(2025.10.20-2025.10.26)
清华金融评论· 2025-10-27 10:39
Group 1 - The first female Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, was elected on October 21, 2025, with an economic policy centered on continuing and strengthening "Abenomics" [6] - Takaichi's policy aims to stimulate economic growth through large-scale monetary easing, active fiscal policies, and targeted investments in strategic industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and defense [6][7] - Market expectations suggest that Takaichi's policy stance will boost short-term economic growth, lift Japanese stocks, and improve corporate profit forecasts, but may increase pressure on the yen's depreciation [7] Group 2 - Japan's national debt is projected to reach 1,323.7 trillion yen by the end of the 2024 fiscal year, marking a record high for nine consecutive years [7] - The combination of loose monetary policy and fiscal expansion could lead to rising inflation and a weaker yen, potentially eroding national purchasing power if international raw material prices rise [7] - Japan's GDP has shrunk by 21% over the past five years, with its global share dropping from 13% in 2001 to 3.61% in 2024, indicating a prolonged economic stagnation [7] Group 3 - The State Council's report on financial work emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to consolidate and expand the economic recovery [8] - The report highlights the importance of providing high-quality financial services to support the real economy, focusing on technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [8] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is working to dynamically improve the monetary policy framework, enhancing policy execution and transmission to support stable economic growth and high-quality development [9] - Recent reforms in the monetary policy framework aim to shift from quantity-based to price-based control, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy adjustments [9] Group 5 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on improving the market ecology for "long money and long investment," aiming to attract long-term funds into the market to reduce short-term volatility [10][11] - The CSRC's initiatives are designed to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market, supporting the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the construction of a financial power [10][11] Group 6 - As of the end of Q3 2025, the balance of various RMB loans from financial institutions reached 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [12] - The increase of 14.75 trillion yuan in loans during the first three quarters reflects a combination of policy support and market differentiation, indicating a shift towards high-quality credit expansion [12]