来源：智通财经 智通财经7月30日电，现货黄金跌破3300美元/盎司，为7月9日以来首次。 ...

Current Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have been on a downward trend, with the New York Commodity Exchange's August gold futures closing at $3,336.7 per ounce on July 15, down 0.67% for the day [1] - The price was $3,359.1 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a daily decline of 0.15% [3] - As of July 16, the Asian market price hovered around $3,333 per ounce, with short-term support at $3,320 and resistance at $3,370 [4] Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Decline - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 984 and 1,008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram within two days [5] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market, gold prices have fallen to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% from previous highs [5] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has pressured gold prices, with the US June CPI rising 2.7%, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and a temporary reduction in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has shifted market risk appetite towards equities [6] - Technical selling intensified after gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering stop-loss sell orders [7] - Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months, with a reduction of 19 tons in May, indicating a shift in institutional investor positions [8] Future Trends and Divergent Views - Bearish View: The decline in geopolitical premiums and technical breakdowns could lead to deeper corrections if the economy achieves a "soft landing," with Citigroup predicting a target price of $2,500 to $2,700 by 2026 [9] - Cautiously Bullish View: Concerns over the weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by global central banks (244 tons added in Q1 2025) suggest potential upward movement, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [9] - Neutral View: A weak adjustment driven by sentiment in Q3, with potential strength in Q4, with Tokai Futures predicting a range of $2,900 to $3,600 for the year [9] - Key technical levels include support at $3,245, $3,200, and $3,180, with resistance at $3,315 to $3,330 [9] Impact and Recommendations - For consumers, those with wedding needs may consider the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market for lower labor costs, while non-urgent buyers are advised to wait for traditional low-price windows [10] - For investors, it is recommended to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold savings, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of household assets in gold as an inflation hedge [10] - Short-term strategies include light short positions around the $3,315 to $3,330 resistance zone, with strict stop-loss measures [10] Recovery and Liquidation - The recent recovery price is approximately 748 yuan per gram as of July 16, providing an opportunity for holders of idle gold jewelry to liquidate during price rebounds [11]

Group 1 - Gold and platinum prices have significantly declined, with Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price at 760 CNY per gram, and several domestic brands reporting prices below 1000 CNY [1] - On June 27, London gold spot price dropped by 1.69% to 3271 USD per ounce, marking a decline of over 50 USD in one day, while COMEX gold futures fell to 3289 USD per ounce, down 2.92% for the week [6][8] - The decline in platinum prices was even more severe, with a drop exceeding 6%, reported at 1329 USD per ounce [6][8] Group 2 - Recent global economic data and monetary policy expectations have created a complex impact on gold prices, with the U.S. PCE price index showing a 0.1% increase month-on-month in May [8] - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised down to a 0.5% annualized decline, reflecting downward adjustments in consumer spending and export data [9] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notification to enhance market risk control, indicating increased market volatility and advising members to improve risk awareness [9] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported a negative shift in global gold ETF demand in May, with North America and Asia leading the decline, resulting in a 1% decrease in total assets under management to 374 billion USD [10] - Analysts suggest that easing geopolitical tensions have reduced investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the price decline [10] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak in Q3 of this year before gradually declining, with expectations of a drop to 2500-2700 USD per ounce by mid-2026, indicating a potential end to the current bullish trend [10] Group 4 - Chief economist at Caisan Financial, Wu Chaoming, believes that three factors will support gold's long-term value: weakening dollar credit, sustained safe-haven demand, and a trend of central bank gold purchases [11] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next five years, providing a solid foundation for long-term gold price increases [11]

现货黄金跌至3280美元/盎司，日内下跌1.45%，创1个月以来新低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a new low since June, primarily influenced by a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in risk aversion [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decrease in tensions in the Middle East, resulting in a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as U.S. stocks and oil stocks [1] - The global stock markets have collectively risen, with major U.S. indices increasing by over 1%, while oil prices have plummeted by more than 7%, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Impact - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been postponed, as Chairman Powell indicated the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, leading to a shift in market focus from a July rate cut to a September cut with a probability exceeding 70% [3] - The U.S. dollar has shown a phase of strength, supported by resilient economic data, which has increased the holding costs of gold priced in dollars, thereby exerting downward pressure on international gold prices [4] Group 3: Technical Selling and Market Sentiment - A technical breakdown occurred when gold prices fell below critical support levels (e.g., $3,300 per ounce), triggering algorithmic trading sell-offs and exacerbating downward pressure [5] - Speculative funds have taken profits after gold prices surged due to Middle Eastern conflict expectations, with prices reaching $3,476 per ounce on June 16 before the ceasefire [6] Group 4: Domestic Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices have dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang quoting prices between 998-1,006 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily decline of up to 14 yuan per gram [7] - The wholesale price in the Shenzhen market has also decreased to around 768 yuan per gram, following international trends [7] Group 5: Future Key Variables - The stability of the Middle East ceasefire is crucial; any resurgence of conflict could lead to a renewed increase in safe-haven demand [8] - Future signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Powell's subsequent speeches and July's non-farm payroll data, will be pivotal in shaping rate cut expectations [9] - Long-term support remains from global central bank gold purchases, which surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 18 consecutive months [10] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - A short-term wait-and-see approach is advised, focusing on whether the support levels of $3,250-$3,300 can hold [11] - For long-term positioning, gold remains a tool for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation on dips [12]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has fallen below the $3200 per ounce mark for the first time since April 14, with a daily decline of 1.6% [1] Group 1 - Spot gold price dropped to $3200 per ounce, marking a significant decline [1] - New York futures gold also retreated below $3200 per ounce, with a daily decrease of 1.48% [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has fallen below $3210 per ounce for the first time since April 14, with an intraday decline of 3.50% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has fallen below $3,230 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The decline in spot gold prices indicates a potential shift in market sentiment towards precious metals [1]

现货黄金跌势延续，最新下跌2%，至每盎司3224.22美元。 同日，多个金饰品牌也下调足金饰品价格。其中，老庙足金饰品价格995元/克、周生生足金饰品1002元/克、周大福足金饰品1009元/ 克。 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold experienced a significant decline of 2.00% in a single day, currently priced at 3222.44 USD per ounce [1]