Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Gold Price - Gold prices are primarily referenced through London Gold internationally and Shanghai Gold domestically, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [4]. - Historical data shows that in December 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 stars, with a low valuation of over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 experienced a prolonged bear market for gold, which was longer than the historical bear market in A-shares [6]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while an increase results in a decline [9][12]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1,600 per ounce, which is significantly higher than in previous years. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a buying opportunity [14]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [15][16]. Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate of around 36% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position [19]. - The risk level of gold is generally lower than that of average stock assets but higher than that of bond assets [21]. Gold Returns - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been approximately 7.92%, compared to 4.34% for pure bond indices and 7.80% for the CSI All Share Total Return Index [24]. - A balanced investment in gold, ideally maintained at a star rating of 4-5, could yield better returns, with a recommended allocation of 5-10% of household assets in gold [25]. Gold Investment Options - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [28]. - Physical gold can follow market prices closely but carries the risk of counterfeit products, necessitating reliable dealers [35]. Types of Physical Gold - Common forms of physical gold include: 1. **Gold Bars**: Available at banks and jewelry stores, often with minimal fabrication fees [36]. 2. **Panda Gold Coins**: Issued by the People's Bank of China, these coins have a slight premium over gold prices but are considered a reliable investment [37]. 3. **Gold Jewelry**: Typically has high fabrication costs and may carry significant premiums, making it less ideal for investment purposes [39].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点击进入「 今天几星 」 小程序，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是4 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 黄金价格 黄金的价格， • 内地主要参考上海金。 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 黄金历史星级 2025年4 月 ，黄金价格在 1.5 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也出现过5星级的机会。 2017年之后，黄金逐渐从低估中走出。 过去10年，主要是2019-2020年，以及2023年至今，是黄金的主要上涨时间。 影响黄金价格的因素 黄金星级，主要参考的是黄金的开采成本、以及同期的美股实际利率。 这也是影响黄金价格最重要的因素。 （1）黄金开采成本， ...