这个国庆假期，国际金价继续上攻，COMEX黄金期货冲破3900美元大关，续创历史新高。 根据此前发布的招股书，IPO后，紫金矿业持有紫金黄金国际86.7%股权，主营该公司所有境外黄金矿山资产的开采、精炼及销售等业 务。 -1- 始于福建龙岩挖金矿 说起来，紫金黄金国际源自于紫金矿业，而紫金系背后是被誉为中国矿业"教父级"的人物——陈景河。 1957年，陈景河出生在福建省龙岩市——这里人才辈出，最著名的当属：字节跳动张一鸣、美团王兴。 少时家境贫寒，陈景河恢复高考后考入福州大学地质专业，毕业后被分配至福建省闽西地质大队，参与紫金山地质勘探工作。 在当时，紫金矿山基本上是一座被抛弃的"废山"。 陈景河日后在《我与紫金，此生不了情》中写道："紫金山千百万年地质痕迹使我痴迷，骑着五龙驾雾，伴着麒麟入眠……终于发现 了我日思夜想的黄金。" 后来，他辞掉福建省地质局最年轻高级工程师的"铁饭碗"，主动申请去紫金山金矿所在的上杭县矿产公司（紫金矿业前身），出任总 经理，开始主导紫金山金矿的开发。 彼时，这家公司只是靠买卖零星矿产品度日，濒临倒闭。陈景河推动紫金山金矿采用低成本、大规模的开采技术，突破传统工艺，使 低品位金矿实 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 路小艾 来源：雪球 以前我有一篇文章讲黄金估值的时候提到过，我有一个简单公式：黄金现货（美元）合理价格=美债规模（万亿）*100。 但当时没解释为什么会有这个公式，今天是补上欠债。 一、关于定性和定量 很多人在提到看多黄金的理由时候，总是会提到美国相对衰落、美元信誉度下降、美债危机、世界格局改变、我们国家崛起、人民币国际化、战争 避险……等等因素。 这些因素都没错，我都同意，实际上我自己有时候也会这么说，但是，我谈论这些话题的时间比较少，而更多的时间，则会从世界货币总量、美债 规模这两个指标去进行考量。 为什么呢？ 因为，看多只是逻辑定性，无法解决定量问题，也就无法进行估值。我们要进行估值，就不能仅仅只是看多，还必须进行定量。 或者我们换一个角度来解释。 现在我提一个问题：看多黄金到多少才合适呢？总不能无限看多对吧？涨多了的话是不是有可能涨过头了？1600美元可以看多，3200美元还可以 看多，但4800美元是不是还能看多呢？要怎么判断？ 要解决这些问题，就必须定量。 另外，对金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Summary by Sections Gold Price - The gold price commonly refers to the price per gram in Shanghai, with similar trends observed in London gold prices, primarily influenced by exchange rate fluctuations [6][7]. Historical Star Ratings of Gold - As of August 2025, gold is rated at 1.0 stars, with a historical low of over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with a notable 5-star opportunity during that time. Post-2017, gold has gradually recovered from undervaluation, with significant price increases noted in 2019-2020 and from 2023 to the present [9]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Three main factors affect gold prices: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices, while an increase results in lower prices [12][13]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, gold mining costs are around $1500 per ounce, which is higher than in previous years. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [18]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [19][20]. Volatility and Risk of Gold - Gold's volatility is characterized by a typical volatility rate of around 32% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation. Generally, gold's risk level is lower than that of average stock assets but higher than bond assets [22][24]. Investment in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves held for redemptions. However, they offer convenience and reduce the risk of counterfeit gold [28][30]. - Physical gold can be acquired in various forms, including gold bars, panda coins, and gold jewelry, each with different pricing structures and potential for counterfeit risks [35][39][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The board is updated regularly to provide insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The price of gold is primarily referenced through Shanghai Gold in mainland China and London Gold internationally [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that in July 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, with a low valuation of over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant opportunities for investment during this time [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while an increase results in a decline [13][14]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has risen due to inflation and labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant investment opportunity [19]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [20][21]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate of around 31% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position. The risk level of gold is generally lower than that of average stock assets but higher than that of bond assets [24][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investment in gold can be approached through: 1. **Gold Funds**: These funds usually yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves. The annualized return for Shanghai Gold is approximately 6.40% [31][32]. 2. **Physical Gold**: This includes gold bars, coins (like the Panda Gold Coin), and jewelry. While physical gold tracks gold prices closely, there are risks of counterfeit products, necessitating reliable dealers [36][40]. Group 5: Current Market Insights - As of July 7, the price of a 30g Panda Gold Coin was 23,767, with a premium rate of 2.71% over Shanghai Gold priced at 771.30. The article suggests that purchasing physical gold from reputable dealers can mitigate risks associated with counterfeits [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Historical Context - The price of gold is primarily referenced through Shanghai Gold, with its movements closely mirroring those of London Gold, mainly influenced by exchange rate fluctuations [6][7]. - Historical data shows that in June 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 stars, while it reached over 4 stars during its lowest valuation in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 was marked by a prolonged bear market for gold, which lasted longer than the historical bear market of A-shares [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The three main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while a rise results in a decrease [13][14]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [19]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [20][21]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate around 30% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position. The risk level of gold is generally lower than that of average stock assets but higher than that of bond assets [24][25]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds usually yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves [30][31]. - Physical gold can be acquired in various forms, including: 1. **Gold Bars**: Available at banks and jewelry stores, often with minimal fabrication fees [37]. 2. **Panda Gold Coins**: Issued by the People's Bank of China, these coins are known for their quality and are relatively easy to trade [38][39]. 3. **Gold Jewelry**: Typically carries high fabrication costs, making it less ideal for investment purposes unless purchased at a discount [43].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [1] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - As of May 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, indicating a low valuation, while it reached over 4 stars during its cheapest point in 2022 [9]. - The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant undervaluation opportunities, particularly in 2015-2016 [10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices [14][19]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. Prices below this threshold indicate a potential buying opportunity [20]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 29% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [23]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 6.49%, outperforming the pure bond index at 4.52% and closely matching the total return index of 6.54% [27]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold for investment: 1. **Gold Funds**: Typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. 2. **Physical Gold**: Includes gold bars, panda coins, and jewelry, with varying levels of premium and risk of counterfeit [35][39][40]. - The recommended allocation for gold in a household's asset portfolio is between 5% to 10% [29].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点击进入「 今天几星 」 小程序，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是4 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 黄金价格 黄金的价格， • 内地主要参考上海金。 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 黄金历史星级 2025年4 月 ，黄金价格在 1.5 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也出现过5星级的机会。 2017年之后，黄金逐渐从低估中走出。 过去10年，主要是2019-2020年，以及2023年至今，是黄金的主要上涨时间。 影响黄金价格的因素 黄金星级，主要参考的是黄金的开采成本、以及同期的美股实际利率。 这也是影响黄金价格最重要的因素。 （1）黄金开采成本， ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London gold hitting $3059.63 per ounce and New York gold reaching $3071.30 per ounce on March 27 [1] - As of March 28, London gold surpassed $3070 per ounce, with current prices at $3079.25 per ounce, reflecting a 0.74% increase, while New York gold is at $3120.13 per ounce, up 0.95% [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with prices for gold jewelry surpassing 930 yuan per gram, including brands like Chow Sang Sang at 934 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook at 932 yuan per gram [3] Group 3: Banks Adjusting Gold Accumulation Products - Several banks have raised the minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products due to rising gold prices, with China Construction Bank increasing the minimum from 700 yuan to 800 yuan starting March 31 [5] - China Merchants Bank has also raised the minimum for gold account purchases from 700 yuan to 750 yuan, marking the second increase this year [9] - Ningbo Bank announced an increase in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation from 700 yuan to 800 yuan effective March 19, 2025 [14] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised the minimum investment for its gold accumulation business from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting March 3 [17] - Bank of China adjusted the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting February 10 [20] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the adjustments in banks' gold accumulation rules are closely tied to the rising gold prices, which are expected to remain high due to increased market risk aversion stemming from global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [20] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, predicting a potential range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce [22] - There are concerns about market overheating, with some institutions indicating that gold valuations are nearing historical highs, suggesting caution for future investments [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold prices have reached a historical high of $3,000 per ounce, there are underlying concerns regarding overvaluation and potential market corrections [1][2] Group 2 - Gold prices have been rising continuously since the beginning of the year, driven by concerns over Trump's tariff policies and fears of a potential recession in the U.S. [1] - The significant premium of New York gold over London gold indicates a supply-demand imbalance, leading to increased gold prices [1] Group 3 - Gold valuation is nearing historical highs, with current prices at the 99.6th percentile, suggesting caution for investors as the safety margin for further price increases is diminishing [2] - Unpriced negative factors include the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an exaggerated narrative around U.S. recession, which could negatively impact gold prices if expectations are adjusted [2]