Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Star Rating" and a "Golden Bull-Bear Signal Board" by the company, aimed at helping investors assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators [1][2]. Summary by Sections Gold Price - The gold price commonly refers to the price per gram in Shanghai, with similar trends observed in London gold prices, primarily influenced by exchange rate fluctuations [6][7]. Historical Star Ratings of Gold - As of August 2025, gold is rated at 1.0 stars, with a historical low of over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with a notable 5-star opportunity during that time. Post-2017, gold has gradually recovered from undervaluation, with significant price increases noted in 2019-2020 and from 2023 to the present [9]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Three main factors affect gold prices: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A substantial decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices, while an increase results in lower prices [12][13]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, gold mining costs are around $1500 per ounce, which is higher than in previous years. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a significant buying opportunity [18]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases during such times [19][20]. Volatility and Risk of Gold - Gold's volatility is characterized by a typical volatility rate of around 32% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation. Generally, gold's risk level is lower than that of average stock assets but higher than bond assets [22][24]. Investment in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves held for redemptions. However, they offer convenience and reduce the risk of counterfeit gold [28][30]. - Physical gold can be acquired in various forms, including gold bars, panda coins, and gold jewelry, each with different pricing structures and potential for counterfeit risks [35][39][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its long-term returns, and factors influencing its price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these elements for investment decisions [1][38]. Long-term Returns of Gold - Gold's long-term annualized return, adjusted for inflation, is approximately 0.6% from 1802 to 2021, indicating it has outperformed inflation over time [3][4]. - From 1971 to April 2025, gold's long-term annualized return is significantly higher at 8.6% [6]. Historical Bull and Bear Markets - The first bull and bear market occurred from 1971 to 2000, where gold surged from $37/oz to $850/oz, a 22-fold increase, followed by a 70% decline over the next 20 years [11]. - The second cycle from 2001 to 2016 saw gold rise to $1921/oz during the financial crises, followed by a 44% drop over six years [13]. - Post-2016, gold prices have been on an upward trend due to global uncertainties, including the pandemic and regional conflicts [15]. Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility is around 28.93%, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with 60-70% equity exposure [17]. - Historical bear markets in A-shares have seen declines of up to 71%, indicating gold's risk level is slightly lower than equities but higher than bonds [17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **U.S. Dollar**: The real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation) significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in real rates typically leads to higher gold prices [21]. 2. **Mining Costs**: Current mining costs are around $1500/oz, and prices below this level may indicate a buying opportunity [24]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events like regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, increasing its price [25]. Investment Strategies and Considerations - Investment in gold can be categorized into three purposes: 1. **Decorative**: Jewelry, which has high premiums and is not primarily for investment [32]. 2. **Short-term Investment**: Gold funds, which are convenient for trading but may have management fees [33]. 3. **Long-term Hedge**: Physical gold, which serves as a hedge against extreme risks and is typically held long-term [35]. Conclusion - Gold remains a significant asset class for investment, with a long-term return that has improved since the end of the gold standard in 1971 [38]. - Key factors influencing gold prices include real interest rates, mining costs, and geopolitical risks, while its volatility is comparable to a mixed equity fund [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a "Golden Bull and Bear Signal Board" by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - As of May 2025, gold was rated at 1.0 star, indicating a low valuation, while it reached over 4 stars during its cheapest point in 2022 [9]. - The period from 2011 to 2016 saw a prolonged bear market for gold, with significant undervaluation opportunities, particularly in 2015-2016 [10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **US Dollar**: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to higher gold prices [14][19]. 2. **Mining Costs**: As of this year, the cost of gold mining is around $1500 per ounce, which has increased due to inflation and rising labor costs. Prices below this threshold indicate a potential buying opportunity [20]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price increases [20]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 29% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock allocation [23]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 6.49%, outperforming the pure bond index at 4.52% and closely matching the total return index of 6.54% [27]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold for investment: 1. **Gold Funds**: Typically yield slightly lower returns than physical gold due to management fees and cash reserves [31]. 2. **Physical Gold**: Includes gold bars, panda coins, and jewelry, with varying levels of premium and risk of counterfeit [35][39][40]. - The recommended allocation for gold in a household's asset portfolio is between 5% to 10% [29].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点击进入「 今天几星 」 小程序，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是4 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 黄金价格 黄金的价格， • 内地主要参考上海金。 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 黄金历史星级 2025年4 月 ，黄金价格在 1.5 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也出现过5星级的机会。 2017年之后，黄金逐渐从低估中走出。 过去10年，主要是2019-2020年，以及2023年至今，是黄金的主要上涨时间。 影响黄金价格的因素 黄金星级，主要参考的是黄金的开采成本、以及同期的美股实际利率。 这也是影响黄金价格最重要的因素。 （1）黄金开采成本， ...