Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by weak US PPI data, solidifying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, leading to a new bull market cycle in gold [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced limited volatility, oscillating around $20, closing at $3639, with a small upward trend on the daily chart [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data, which is expected to significantly impact Federal Reserve policy and short-term gold price movements [1] - Current market sentiment shows a weakening bullish bias among gold traders, with potential for a short-term bearish reaction if prices fall below $3620-25 [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3655-60, while support is noted around $3625-20 [2] - A break below $3620 could trigger a short-term bearish response, with further testing of $3605-00 and possibly $3570 if negative fundamentals arise [2] - The prevailing market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, which may overshadow other factors [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at $3628-3629 with a stop loss at $3620 and a target of $3650-3660 [3] - If prices drop below $3620, a reversal to short positions is recommended [3] Group 4: Key Economic Events - Important economic data to be released includes the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and US CPI data for August, both scheduled for 20:30 [4] - Additional data includes initial jobless claims and core CPI figures, which will also be released at the same time [4]

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...