来源：市场资讯 （来源：F金融） 事项：9月以来黄金价格大幅上涨，至北京时间10月7日晚间，伦敦现货黄金逼近4000美元/盎司。 2025年以来，国际黄金市场上演了一场波澜壮阔的上涨行情。国际现货黄金价格从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，一路突破多个整数关口，业已逼近4000美 元/ 盎司。其中，9月份的上涨尤为引人注目，美元计价下单月涨幅达11.6%。这轮上涨并非偶然，而是长期逻辑、短期因素与市场情绪共振的结果。本文 将从黄金上涨的长期逻辑、9月份以来的短期触发因素以及未来走势展望三个维度展开深入分析。 黄金上涨的长期逻辑：货币体系重构的长线叙事仍然有效 黄金作为兼具商品属性与金融属性的特殊资产，其长期价格走势始终与全球宏观经济格局、货币体系演变及供需结构变化紧密相连。当前支撑黄金持续上 涨的长期逻辑主要集中在全球货币信用体系重构层面。 黄金的核心金融属性在于其"天然货币"的特性，当全球货币信用体系面临挑战时，黄金往往成为市场的 "压舱石"。当前，这一逻辑正得到充分验证，主 要体现在两个方面： 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱，越来越多的国家开始推进储备资产多元化，黄 ...

近期，国际金价屡创新高。8日，国际现货黄金突破每盎司4000美元关口，盘中一度攀升至每盎司4039.14美元，创历史新高。此前一天，国际黄金期货价格 突破了这一关口。数据显示，国际金价在今年3月首次突破每盎司3000美元大关。在半年多的时间内，大涨1000美元，迅速突破每盎司4000美元关口，这意 味着什么？金价上涨背后有哪些原因？会对国际金融市场带来哪些影响？ 国际金价首次突破4000美元关口意味着什么？ 货币体系重构的信号弹 北京师范大学教授、经济学专家 万喆：这个有着里程碑的意义，也是一个历史性的心理关口。我们看金价在今年年内涨幅已经超过50%，标志着市场情绪 的一个转折点，所以它意味着是一个货币体系重构的信号弹。美元作为全球主要储备货币的份额，已经从2000年到现在在不断降低，而黄金储备的占比在持 续攀升。 风险定价范式转换与财富分配格局再平衡 北京师范大学教授、经济学专家 万喆：当市场对传统避险工具向美元美债的信任产生动摇时，黄金定价的逻辑转向了信用驱动，它也意味着风险定价范式 在转换，传统金融资产定价模型正面临失效的风险。地缘政治风险溢价正在重塑资产估值体系。中东局势、欧洲边境等等一些常态化的危机 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月08日 一是去美元化趋势加速动摇美元信用根基。近年来，美元的结算与储备霸权持续削弱，越来越多的国家开 始推进储备资产多元化，黄金成为重要的替代选择。在美国贸易保护主义转向下，全球货币体系可能正在 经历一次深刻的"范式漂移"—从纯粹的信用美元体系，向某种具有"类金本位"特征的体系倾斜。多国 央行已将购入黄金作为战略举措，不仅将其视为价值储存的手段，更将其作为全球动荡时期稳定经济的核 心资源。世界黄金协会数据显示，全球央行的持续购金行为已成为支撑金价的重要力量，即便在利率政策 环境不及预期的情况下，这一支撑仍能有效发挥作用。这种储备结构的调整并非短期行为，而是全球货币 体系重构过程中的长期趋势，为黄金需求提供了稳定的底层支撑。 近期黄金大涨快评 黄金牛市：长期逻辑、短期触发与未来展望 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-819820 ...

黄金的千年信仰：当华尔街投行遇上"乱世买金"的东方智慧 在纽约曼哈顿的高盛大厦里，分析师们正用复杂的数学模型测算黄金价格，而万里之外的上海金店里， 大妈们摩挲着沉甸甸的金条露出会心微笑。这两种看似风马牛不相及的投资行为，此刻却在全球黄金市 场上演着奇妙的共振。 当华尔街最精明的投行开始用"上行风险"这样的专业术语描述黄金走势时，我 们或许正站在一个新时代的起点。 高盛最新报告揭示的细节令人玩味：9月份黄金ETF实际流入量达到109吨，远超模型预测的17吨。这个 六倍多的误差，暴露出传统金融模型在解释黄金市场时的力不从心。 就像用气象学公式计算龙卷风路 径，再精密的算法也难逃"失之毫厘，谬以千里"的宿命。更耐人寻味的是，投机仓位对近期涨幅的解 释力不足1%，这说明推动金价的主力根本不是华尔街的量化基金，而是那些被传统金融视为"非理 性"的坚定持有者。 这些坚定买家构成的"黄金同盟"堪称当代奇观：各国央行、ETF机构投资者与个人藏家各怀心思却殊途 同归。特别是新兴市场央行，自俄乌冲突后购买速度激增五倍，这种集体行动让人联想到动物世界里角 马渡河的壮观场景—— 当领头的几只率先跃入激流，整个种群就会形成不可阻挡的迁 ...

监管套利窗口：政策红利的时效性分析 XBIT Wallet 9月18日讯，美联储时隔9个月首次降息25个基点，这一政策调整背后隐藏着深刻的市场逻 辑重构。降息决定公布后24小时内，数字资产市场暴涨800亿美元，但真正的变化并非短期价格波动， 而是机构资金配置策略的根本性转向。数字资产钱包作为这一转向的核心载体，正在经历从工具属性向 基础设施属性的关键跃迁。 利率传导的隐性逻辑：为什么机构突然需要数字资产钱包 美联储降息的表面逻辑是应对就业数据恶化——8月新增就业仅2.2万人，失业率攀升至4.3%。但更深层 的含义在于，传统货币政策工具在面对结构性经济问题时的局限性日益暴露。当实体经济增长乏力而通 胀仍处高位时，降息实际上是在强迫资本寻找新的价值洼地。 据XBIT Wallet报道，降息决定公布后出现的机构行为模式值得深度解读。某OTC交易商在消息公布后 90分钟内动用1.12亿美元购入2.5万枚ETH，这种反应速度表明该笔交易早有预案。另一机构通过 Wintermute购入1.8万枚ETH，总价值8,077万美元，24小时内浮盈200万美元。这些并非投机行为，而是 基于利率环境变化的战略性资产重配。 关键问题 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold surpassing $3,680 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching $3,728, indicating a profound transformation in gold's role within the global monetary system [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of factors including deepening cracks in dollar credit, a collective move by global central banks towards "de-dollarization," and new forms of international competition [1][3] - The U.S. debt has exceeded $34 trillion, raising concerns about long-term dollar depreciation, while states like Arkansas are recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, reflecting internal skepticism towards the current monetary system [3][4] Group 2 - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with 2024's net purchases reaching 1,037 tons, particularly driven by emerging markets like China, which has increased its gold reserves significantly [3][4] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has stimulated gold's financial attributes, leading to a significant liquidity surge in the gold market, with a notable increase in demand for gold ETFs [4][5] - Predictions from institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that if the U.S. enters a recession or a dollar credit crisis occurs, gold prices could potentially reach $5,000 per ounce, driven by a small percentage of funds shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold [5][6] Group 3 - The evolving perception of gold as a "new currency anchor" could lead to a global asset repricing, with countries like Russia using gold to support their currency and the EU exploring gold's role in trade settlements [6][7] - There is a growing divide in the market regarding gold's role as a safe-haven asset versus a potential bubble, with institutions recommending a 3%-10% allocation to gold for risk hedging [7] - Ordinary investors face challenges in navigating the liquidity differences between gold ETFs and physical gold, as well as the interconnectedness of gold mining stocks and spot prices, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [7]

2025-09-03 17:08:24 作者：狼叫兽 黄金市场迎来历史性时刻，国际金价一度突破3500美元，创下历史新高。在这场黄金牛市中，皇御贵金 属凭借十三年专业积淀，为投资者提供安全、专业的交易服务，助力黄金投资者把握机遇。 全球央行购金潮未休 全球央行已连续三年净购金量超1000吨，2025年一季度净购金达244吨。这反映了各国对美元信用风险 的担忧，以及逆全球化背景下货币体系重构的迫切需求。 ●皇御贵金属：十三年专业服务，为投资者保驾护航 ●金价突破3500美元，创历史新高 9月2日，国际金价震荡走高，现货黄金突破3500美元大关，这不仅刷新了历史记录，更是黄金强劲势头 的重要标志。 数据显示，截至9月1日，现货黄金今年累计上涨近35%。多家机构巨头预测，未来一年半，黄金可能挑 战3700美元、甚至4000美元关口。 ●多重因素助推金价上涨避险需求持续升温 中东紧张局势再起，地缘时政风险溢价急速涌入市场。当恐慌情绪与避险资本迎头相撞，黄金市场多空 博弈进一步白热化。 美联储政策预期转变 市场对美联储降息的预期持续升温，目前9月降息的概率已接近90%。 这可能促使美元保持低迷，市场 现金流大规模流向黄 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The traditional analysis framework indicates that gold prices are primarily determined by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations. However, in 2025, this linear relationship is being disrupted as gold prices reach historical highs despite the US 10-year TIPS yield remaining around 0.8%, indicating a significant weakening of the negative correlation between the two [1] - The IMF report highlights that the share of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has increased to 17%, up 5 percentage points since 2020. Countries like Russia and Iran are piloting a "gold standard" system, linking part of their oil exports to gold, which could undermine the dominance of the US dollar [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The demographic of gold investors is becoming younger, with 47% of gold investors aged 25-35, an increase of 23 percentage points since 2020. This group prefers digital tools like gold accumulation plans and gold ETF-linked funds, leading to a threefold increase in average trading frequency compared to traditional investors [3] - The average P/E ratio for gold mining companies is currently at 15, which is historically low. Companies with resource expansion potential, such as Zijin Mining, are expected to see a 25% year-on-year increase in gold production in 2025 [5] Group 3: Market Opportunities and Risks - The revival of traditional gold craftsmanship is driving an upgrade in gold jewelry consumption, with Chow Tai Fook's "Heritage" series sales increasing by 65% year-on-year. The gold recycling market is also showing "Internet+" characteristics, with a 20% monthly growth in gold recycling business on platforms like Xianyu [3] - Geopolitical tensions may ease, and if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil prices could drop by 20%, potentially leading to a gold price correction to $2,200. A dynamic stop-loss of 10% is recommended [5]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, indicates a growing emphasis on the value of gold as a reserve asset, providing medium to long-term support for gold investment value [2][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces and achieving eight consecutive months of growth [1]. - Since 2022, the average annual gold purchasing volume by global central banks has doubled compared to the previous decade, with emerging economies like Poland, Turkey, India, and China leading the charge [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Gold Prices - The recent stabilization of global gold prices around $3,300 per ounce is attributed to reduced sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, although the potential for increased volatility remains [5]. - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to increase the national debt, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting gold prices [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year [4]. - The need for central banks to optimize their international reserve structures suggests a continued trend of increasing gold reserves while potentially reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [4].

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a transformation from a traditional safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor due to the restructuring of the monetary system, economic cycle shifts, and geopolitical tensions [1][6] - In the first half of 2025, global economic indicators show weak recovery and high volatility, with the IMF downgrading global growth forecasts to 2.8% and a surprising contraction in US GDP [2] - There is a paradox in the gold market where macroeconomic data is weak but market sentiment remains high, as evidenced by a significant sell-off of over 1.11 million ounces in gold futures by hedge funds, while 43% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings [2][3] Group 2 - The conflict between rising real interest rates and the restructuring of gold pricing logic is evident, with gold prices surpassing $3,200 despite higher real yields, indicating a shift in pricing influenced by geopolitical risks and currency credit risks [3] - The supply-demand dynamics show a structural imbalance, with a 0.5% increase in global gold mine production in Q1 2025, while investment demand surged by 170% due to significant inflows into gold ETFs [3] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 100 tons of gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with a record 493 tons acquired in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The irreversible trend of a multipolar monetary system is highlighted by the weakening of the US dollar credit system, with US federal debt at 125% of GDP and the dollar's share in global reserves declining from 71% in 2000 to 58% [5] - Historical data suggests that during periods of stagflation, gold has outperformed other asset classes, with potential gold prices exceeding $3,800 per ounce if the US enters mild stagflation [5] Group 4 - China's role as the largest gold consumer and producer significantly impacts gold prices, with the central bank's pause in gold purchases raising concerns about demand sustainability, despite a substantial potential for future purchases [6] - The domestic investment demand for gold is robust, as indicated by a 47% year-on-year increase in trading volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, while leading companies are expanding overseas resource acquisitions [7] - The global positioning of Chinese gold enterprises is improving, with overseas resource share rising from 18% in 2020 to 34% in 2025, reflecting a successful global strategy [7]