Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, and the number of rate cuts within the year may be large, with the total rate cut amplitude potentially exceeding market expectations [2][28] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend. Gold may experience a sideways or slightly bearish sideways trend as the need for hedging weakens, while silver may strengthen further in the short - term, and a catch - up rally may occur [2][28] - Tracking US economic data to monitor when the precious metals market will start the interest - rate - cut expectation rally will be the focus in the future [3] - The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited and is not a key consideration [3][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The US dollar index has limited downward momentum. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may flow back to the US, supporting the US dollar. Gold's sideways nature may intensify, while silver is expected to show a sideways - bullish trend due to increased industrial demand [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, hitting a new high since November 2021 [12] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [15] - The US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed Chairman, and Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate [15] - Fed's Daly said that policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation [15] - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than expected, while the S&P Global Services PMI final value in July reached a new high since December 2024 [15][16][19] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that the economy remains resilient but with increasing downward pressure, and the market is trading around the September interest - rate - cut expectation [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose high tariffs on chips and semiconductors. European leaders issued a statement on the Ukraine peace issue [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts, and the price of copper shows a divergence between domestic and international markets [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although the depreciation pressure has increased, it has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The expectation of a September rate cut has increased significantly, and gold and silver may show a divergent trend in the short - term, with silver potentially strengthening [28]