Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices dropping over 5%, and London silver spot prices falling more than 7% on October 21 [1] Volatility and Market Reactions - The rapid increase in the short-term volatility index has prompted risk warnings from various exchanges and futures institutions, with the GVZ index rising by 20.87% on October 16, reaching a new high since April [2][4] - The GVZ index continued to rise, indicating heightened market volatility and increased risk expectations, with a notable spike on October 16 that pushed it above 30, signaling potential price fluctuations in gold [4][5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued risk warnings, advising members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability amid significant price volatility [4][5] Market Performance and Stock Reactions - Despite a rise in London gold prices earlier in October, stocks of companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold showed a divergence, indicating a cautious attitude among secondary market investors [2][9] - As of October 20, the London gold price had increased by approximately 10% for the month, while Zijin Mining's stock rose only 1.05%, reflecting a broader trend of gold stocks not keeping pace with gold price increases [10] - The Wind precious metals index experienced a maximum drawdown of about 16.37% from mid-October highs, with some stocks like Hengbang Shares and Shandong Gold seeing drawdowns exceeding 20% [10][11] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent short-term declines, the precious metals market is viewed as being in a long-term bull market, with the decline of the US dollar's credibility serving as a core foundation for strategic allocation in precious metals [8][11] - If gold and silver prices rise again but stocks like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold do not follow suit, it may indicate a nearing cyclical peak in the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices dropping over 5%, and London silver spot prices falling more than 7% on October 21, indicating heightened volatility and caution among investors [1][6]. Volatility Indicators - The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) surged by 20.87% on October 16, reaching a new high since April, signaling increased market risk and heightened investor caution [1][5]. - The GVZ index has been rising since October 6, indicating a shift from normal volatility levels (15-25) to a dangerous zone above 30, reflecting growing potential price fluctuations in gold [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the spike in volatility, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued risk warnings, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted margin requirements for gold and silver futures to mitigate potential risks [5][6]. - On October 21, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold spot prices dropping from $4,381.48 to $4,002.89 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures declining from $4,398 to $4,021.20 per ounce [6]. Stock Market Trends - There is a noticeable divergence between gold prices and gold stocks, with gold stocks like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold showing limited gains compared to a 10% increase in London gold prices since the beginning of October [1][9]. - The Wind precious metals index has experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 16.37% from mid-October highs, indicating a cautious sentiment in the secondary market [9][12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term adjustments, the precious metals market is viewed as being in a long-term bull market, driven by declining dollar credit, suggesting strategic allocation value in precious metals [7][15]. - The performance of gold stocks relative to gold prices may indicate potential market peaks, as historical trends show that stock prices often peak before commodity prices [15].

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining, with a reported net profit increase of 55.5% to 37.86 billion yuan in Q3, marking a historical high for the company [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 net profit reached 14.57 billion yuan, setting a new record for quarterly earnings [1][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gold production accounted for 40.4% of total gross profit, making it the largest profit source [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its full-year profit forecast to approximately 51 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence between gold stocks and gold prices since the beginning of Q4, with stocks like Zijin Mining experiencing a pullback [2][12]. - The average price of gold rose from 2,624 USD/oz to around 3,858 USD/oz, a 47% increase, while copper prices only increased by 17% during the same period [3]. Group 3: Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's gold ingot and concentrate sales prices reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram, respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in gold production for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 65 tons [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The continued rise in international gold prices is expected to sustain Zijin Mining's performance, with potential for further profit growth in Q4 [1]. - However, the company's stock price has not kept pace with gold price increases, raising concerns about future performance alignment [12].