1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report constructs a gold purchasing power model to estimate the extreme high point of the gold price quantitatively by analyzing the relationship between the gold price and the purchasing power of various parties. The model shows that the total gold purchasing power can explain 87.49% of the gold price changes [2][39]. - When the existing gold purchasing power reaches the theoretical future value, the model predicts that the gold price could reach about $9,982 per ounce in an ideal market environment. Considering the current spot price of $5,500 per ounce, the gold price may have an upside potential of about 113.43%, reaching approximately $11,738 per ounce, with an expected increase of about $6,238 per ounce [3][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Lasso Model of Gold Purchasing Power Factor Pricing Analysis 3.1.1 Data Explanation - The time range of the model data is from January 2015 to November 2025, using monthly data. The main purchasing power factors of gold are the allocation and trading behaviors of four entities: global central banks, gold ETFs, net long positions, and the gold reserves of stablecoins [12]. 3.1.2 Global Central Banks - Global central banks' continuous gold purchases support the long - term value of London gold. They buy gold for reasons such as diversifying foreign exchange reserves, hedging inflation, and geopolitical risks. Due to differences in statistical caliber and data concealment, the real scale of central bank gold purchases is estimated through multiple channels, including the London OTC market, direct purchases from domestic producers, and transactions with the IMF [15][16]. 3.1.3 Gold ETFs - The global gold ETF holdings are an important real - time indicator of the London gold price. When ETFs increase their holdings, it means investors indirectly buy gold through fund shares, and the issuers need to increase physical gold reserves accordingly [21]. 3.1.4 Net Long Positions - The COMEX net long position reflects international speculative capital's sentiment towards gold, and an increase usually indicates a bullish expectation, which can push up the COMEX futures price and affect the London gold price through the arbitrage mechanism. Domestic futures companies' net buy orders reflect domestic investors' trading preferences [23][25]. 3.1.5 Cryptocurrencies - The scale of cryptocurrencies linked to physical gold, such as gold stablecoins (PAXG, XAUt) and the USDT with a 5% gold reserve, is increasing. Their gold reserves contribute to the total demand for gold [29][30]. 3.1.6 Model Establishment - After single - factor regression analysis, all four purchasing power factors have a significant impact on the gold price. Considering the problem of multicollinearity, the Lasso regression model is selected. The model has a good prediction accuracy, and the purchasing power factors can explain 87.49% of the gold price changes [32][38][39]. 3.1.7 Fitting Effect - The model's fitting value is highly consistent with the actual London gold price, but there are still some deviations in 2025 due to data blind spots and missing information [42][45]. 3.2 Based on the Model's Long - Term Valuation Outlook for the Gold Price 3.2.1 Outlook for Purchasing Power Factors - **Global Central Banks**: Many central banks are increasing their gold reserves. If China and other major gold - increasing countries reach the global average level of gold in foreign exchange reserves, the total increase in gold reserves could be about 3,000 tons. If foreign official holdings of US Treasuries are replaced by gold, the gold reserves could increase by 27,000 tons [46][47]. - **Gold ETFs**: The future growth of gold ETFs can be evaluated from two aspects: reaching the historical peak and following the gold allocation ratio theory of Ray Dalio. There is potential for an increase of about 392 tons based on the allocation ratio and about 424 tons based on the historical peak [49][50]. - **Cryptocurrencies**: The gold reserves of USDT, PAXG, and XAUt are expected to increase by about 900 tons in the next three years if the current growth momentum is maintained [51]. - **Net Long Positions**: In the medium - term, the gold net long position has the potential to return to or exceed the historical peak, with an increase potential of about 300 tons [54]. 3.2.2 Gold Price Upside Potential - In an ideal market environment, the model predicts that the gold price could reach about $9,982 per ounce, with an upside potential of about 113.43% compared to the 2025 prediction. The expected long - term price is about $11,738 per ounce, with an expected increase of about $6,238 per ounce. Central bank gold purchases have the most significant driving effect on the gold price [55][56]. 3.3 Summary - Global central bank gold purchases, cryptocurrency gold reserves, and net long positions are positively correlated with the gold price, while global gold ETF holdings are negatively correlated. The model shows that the gold price may have an upside potential of about $6,238 per ounce in an ideal situation, but the prediction is subject to market changes [58][59].