10月21日，伦敦金价格跌幅超过5%，盘中一度跌破4,100美元/盎司，上海金价格同步回落至950元以 下。对此我们点评如下： 一、为何下跌？ 本次金价下跌的直接导火索源于两方面：一是俄乌冲突停火预期升温。欧洲多国领导人在10月21日发表 联合声明支持俄乌停火并启动和谈。二是中美经贸摩擦缓和。近期特朗普表态明显软化，主动降温局势 并宣布访华计划，向市场释放积极信号。在上述两方面因素的共同作用下，避险资金撤出黄金市场引发 回调。而推动金价快速下跌的核心因素在于止盈盘的获利回吐。10月以来，因美国政府停摆、欧日政坛 乱局、中美经贸摩擦阶段性升温、美国区域性银行出现信贷欺诈等多重风险事件叠加，黄金出现加速上 涨。黄金ETF、纽约金净多头持仓规模快速攀升，黄金ETF波动率飙升，且已超过2022年俄乌冲突爆发 初期时的水平。多项数据表明市场的多头情绪已经过于极致，对利空消息的敏感度显著提升，资金获利 回吐造成本次市场的快速下跌。 二、市场展望 liudongliang@cmbchina.com 我们认为黄金的本次下跌属于阶段性回调而非趋势性见顶。中长期来看，俄乌冲突的缓和仅为短期影 响，且后续走势并不明朗，市场在消化短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: the rising expectations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the easing of US-China trade tensions, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds from the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Decline - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices was the joint statement from European leaders on October 21 supporting a ceasefire and initiating talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. - Additionally, former President Trump’s softened stance and announcement of a visit to China have sent positive signals to the market, contributing to the retreat of safe-haven investments from gold [1]. - The core factor driving the rapid decline was profit-taking by investors, as gold had surged due to multiple risk events, including US government shutdowns and regional banking issues, leading to an extreme bullish sentiment in the market [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The current decline in gold prices is viewed as a phase of correction rather than a trend reversal, with expectations that gold will maintain an upward trajectory in the medium to long term [2]. - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, due to weakening employment data and moderate inflation, is expected to create a favorable environment for a gold bull market [2]. - Central bank gold purchases have not shown signs of reversal, providing solid support for gold prices [2]. - Despite concerns about whether gold is overpriced, the investment demand represented by gold ETFs still has room for growth, indicating that the market for gold is not overcrowded [2]. - Overall, while short-term adjustments may occur, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations that gold prices may challenge the $5,000 mark in the future [2].