Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices surged to historical highs this week, with a three-day consecutive increase from Monday to Wednesday, peaking around 3600 before a slight pullback at the end of the week [1] - The overall weekly performance of gold concluded with a significant bullish candlestick [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - A rate cut is almost certain, with the debate centered on whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, following disappointing non-farm payroll data showing only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, with June's data revised to a negative growth of 13,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since December 2020 [2] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have reached 99%, with differing opinions among institutions regarding the extent of the cut [2] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key focus for next week includes the U.S. August CPI/PPI data, which could influence rate cut expectations depending on whether inflation exceeds or remains moderate [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a 2% deposit rate, with internal divisions on inflation risks potentially leading to differing policy actions [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current gold market is in a strong upward trend, confirming the initiation of a 5-wave upward structure after breaking the 3500 resistance level [7] - The analysis indicates that the gold price is currently in the 3rd wave of the upward movement, with specific internal structures identified for further price movements [10] - The next critical point to watch is 3511, which serves as a key level; if breached, it may indicate a transition to a corrective phase [10]

本周，黄金周一小幅收阴，完成技术性修正；随后行情企稳回升，自周二到周五连续四个交易日收阳上行，最终周线以一根实体阳线报收，整体表现强势。 1、特朗普与美联储的"权力斗争" 特朗普以"正当理由"解雇美联储理事库克，法庭听证会暂未裁决，库克暂时留任，其去留直接关系美联储独立性——胜诉将巩固独立性，败诉或为总统安插 亲信打开缺口。 市场对美联储9月降息预期强烈：据LSEG数据，降息25个基点的概率达84%，但需8月非农数据确认；花旗指出，劳动力市场持续走软将暗示9月后可能继续 降息。 下周多位官员（穆萨莱姆、卡什卡利、威廉姆斯等）将发表讲话，周四美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书，为货币政策走向提供线索。 2、重要数据 （1）8月非农报告的双重意义 经济层面：预计8月非农就业人口新增7.8万（仍低于10万），失业率或从4.2%升至4.3%；若数据疲软，将巩固降息预期，反之或引发市场疑虑。 公信力层面：特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长后，市场对数据准确性的质疑升温，新局长调整调查方式尚需时间。 （2）其他重点数据与事件 美国：ISM制造业/非制造业PMI、JOLTs职位空缺、工厂订单、ADP就业数据（因劳动节推迟至周四）、EIA原油 ...