10月降息预期

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张尧浠:10月降息预期引动市场、金价多头仍持看涨上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 00:45
Core Viewpoint - The gold market continues to show a bullish trend, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, despite facing some resistance near target levels [1][3]. Market Performance - International gold prices opened at $3686.98 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3683.62, and then rebounded to a new historical high of $3790.68 before closing at $3762.45, marking a weekly increase of $75.47 or 2.05% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $107.06, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - A strong expectation of a 90% chance for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October weakened the dollar's appeal, driving funds into the gold market [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and a recent agreement between the EU and the US on tariffs contributed to a decrease in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices [3]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a drop in initial jobless claims and an upward revision of Q2 GDP, led to a rebound in the dollar index, which pressured gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on upcoming economic data, including the US August pending home sales index and the Dallas Fed business activity index, which are anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of further price increases if resistance levels are broken [6][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests a potential target of $4200 per ounce, driven by continued central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6].