2026 年 02 月 25 日 公司深度研究 买入/维持 小商品城(600415) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 小商品城深度报告：锚定数贸枢纽 贸易综合服务筑长期价值 走势比较 (10%) 8% 26% 44% 62% 80% 25/2/25 25/5/8 25/7/19 25/9/29 25/12/10 26/2/20 小商品城 沪深300 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 54.84/54.84 总市值/流通(亿元) 823.63/823.63 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 23.4/11.71 相关研究报告 投资建议：预计 2025-2027 年小商品城将实现营业收入 203.75/ 267.99/344.55 亿元，同比增速分别为 29.47%/31.53%/28.57%;归母净利 <<小商品城 2025Q3 点评：三季度业 绩超预期 增长动能强劲>>--2025- 12-06 证券分析师：王湛 电话： E-MAIL：wangzhan@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190517100003 报告摘要 小商品城依托义乌全球最大小商品集散中心，从"市场运营商"加速 升级为"数智外贸基础设施 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 21.94 RMB, corresponding to a target valuation of 20X for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI + trade services, with trade service contributions anticipated to grow at a steeper curve due to the Belt and Road Initiative and the 1039 market procurement model [2]. - The company has established itself as the sole pilot for the import positive list business, which is expected to create a second growth engine [4]. - The CG platform's AI tools are projected to enhance revenue generation, with significant growth in user engagement and profitability [45][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a strong foundation in the Yiwu market, benefiting from deep reform genes and a robust operational mechanism, leading to significant growth in gross profit [15]. - The export business has seen rapid growth, with the 1039 model driving exports from 189.3 billion RMB in 2017 to an expected 471.7 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 21.5% year-on-year increase [20]. - The company has established a comprehensive trade ecosystem, enhancing revenue and profit quality through market operations, trade services, and supporting services [26]. 2. New Business Development - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in emerging markets, with a focus on the Belt and Road Initiative, which has led to a 26.9% increase in trade volume with these countries [40]. - The CG platform has entered a revenue-generating phase, with diverse charging models for its services, including basic and value-added service fees [45]. - The AI tools on the CG platform are expected to significantly increase revenue, with a notable rise in user engagement and profitability [48]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 21.2 billion, 27.8 billion, and 34.4 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.7%, 31.0%, and 24.0% [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.5 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.2 billion RMB, with growth rates of 47.4%, 32.8%, and 19.3% [5]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve, driven by the growth of trade services and market operations [29].