AI全链赋能成效显著，数贸生态协同升级。Chinagoods平台作为服务210万家中小微企业的B2B数字化 贸易综合服务平台，注册采购商突破510方人，覆盖200多入国家和地区。其经营主体（大数据公司）上 半年实现营业收入2.57亿元，净利润1.55亿元，同比增长10 9.69%。平台持续深化AI技术应用，"小商 AI"系列应用累计使用及访问量突破10亿人次，其中，"AI翻译官"功能支持116种语言互译，集成同传、 语音及图文翻译等多元能力。公司积极构建开放生态，与阿里云合作研发"世界义乌"商贸大模型，携手 小红书落地"商家成长社群俱乐部"，联合Amazon、TikTok等17家全球电商平台举办"全球数贸中心电商 引力加速计划"。我们认为，伴随公司平台数据资源与AI能力持续沉淀，有望推动构建轻量化、可复制 的 SaaS商业模式，打造新的收入与利润增长点。 跨境支付与品牌出海双轮驱动，全球化布局持续深化。旗下持牌支付机构"义支付（YiWuPav）"业务规 模快速提升，2025年1-6月跨境收款金额超25亿美元，同比增长超47%：报告期内利润总额超4000 万 元，同比增长超50%。其服务网络覆盖全球超170个国 ...

小商品城（600415）2025 年半年报点评： 数贸中心建设提速，AI 赋能成效显著 事件描述 2025 年 H1 业绩稳健增长：公司上半年实现营业收入 77.13 亿元，同比 增长 13.99%；归属母公司净利润 16.91 亿元，同比增长 16.78%； 扣非 净利润 16.68 亿元，同比增长 17.57%。 2025 年 Q2 单季表现亮眼：公司 Q2 单季度实现营业收入 45.52 亿元， 同⽐增⻓11.41%；归母净利润 8.88 亿元，同⽐增⻓20.77%，经营业绩 持续向好。 投资建议 我们认为，公司立足实体市场基本盘，以数字贸易服务为新增长引擎， 全球数贸中心开启新一轮增长周期。短期来看，全球数贸中心招商落地 锁定未来增长，贸易服务板块持续贡献高毛利增量；长期来看，公司"实 体市场+CG 平台+义支付"的 AI 赋能贸易生态壁垒高筑，全球化布局有 望释放更高弹性。 我们预计，公司 25/26/27 年归母净利润 41/55/63 亿元，当前股价对应 PE 为 27 倍/20 倍/18 倍，维持"持有"评级。 风险提示： 1、国际外贸局势不稳定；2、公司新业务拓展不及预期。 证券研究报告 [ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, achieving a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan (up 13.99% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.691 billion yuan (up 16.78% year-on-year) for the first half of 2025. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 4.552 billion yuan (up 11.43% year-on-year) with a net profit of 888 million yuan (up 20.82% year-on-year). The net profit growth for Q2 2025 is close to the upper limit of the previous forecast (year-on-year growth of 12.52%-22.04%) [4][12] - The global digital trade center's shop leasing has seen high demand, significantly enhancing the company's cash flow in H1 2025. The first batch of 389 fashion jewelry industry shops had a subscription ratio exceeding 12:1, while the second batch of 919 shops in creative toys, skincare, and medical beauty industries had a subscription ratio exceeding 14:1. The operating cash flow net amount increased by 1.268 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the cash net amount from the fashion jewelry industry leasing [12] - The B2B trading platform and cross-border payment business continue to expand, with the "Chinagoods" platform registering over 5.1 million buyers across more than 200 countries and regions by H1 2025. The platform generated a revenue of 257 million yuan, with a net profit of 155 million yuan (up 109.69% year-on-year). Cross-border payment transactions exceeded 2.5 billion USD (up over 47% year-on-year) [12][13] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 19.597 billion yuan, 25.528 billion yuan, and 30.103 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 24.53%, 30.26%, and 17.92%. The net profits attributable to shareholders are projected to be 4.073 billion yuan, 6.441 billion yuan, and 7.480 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.50%, 58.15%, and 16.12% respectively. The EPS for these years is expected to be 0.74 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.36 yuan per share, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x, 17x, and 15x [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by high market demand and successful business expansion initiatives [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.691 billion yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit after excluding government subsidies and other non-recurring items was 1.670 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached 4.552 billion yuan, a 11.4% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 890 million yuan, up 21% [1]. Market Operations - The market operating segment generated revenue of 2.379 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a total profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 3% [1]. - The total import and export value of Yiwu city reached 405.8 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, indicating a high market demand [1]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its new markets, with the third batch of industries including drones, robotics, and fashion materials starting recruitment on July 23, 2025 [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2025 was 1.66 billion yuan, supported by the ongoing market recruitment efforts [2]. Chinagoods Performance - Chinagoods, the company's big data subsidiary, reported revenue of 257 million yuan and a net profit of 155 million yuan in H1 2025, with net profit increasing by 109.7% year-on-year [2]. - The platform's AI product enhancements and the launch of the "Small Business AI" series applications contributed to the growth in performance [2]. Yiwupay Growth - Yiwupay's cross-border payment net amount exceeded 2.5 billion USD in H1 2025, a 47% increase year-on-year, with total profit exceeding 40 million yuan, up 50% [2]. Import and Global Expansion - The company is the only white-listed enterprise for the national import positive list, successfully completing trials for 28 categories of daily consumer goods and 5 categories of parallel imported appliances [3]. - The first overseas market in East Asia, the Osaka Yiwu market, opened on June 26, 2025, marking a significant step in global expansion [3]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains a profit forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.23 billion yuan, 5.71 billion yuan, and 6.82 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 38%, 35%, and 19% respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, nearing the upper limit of the forecast range [1] - The performance of the Chinagoods platform has shown high growth, benefiting from AI product enhancements [1] - The company is strategically positioned as a key export hub along the Belt and Road Initiative, with multiple growth drivers such as new market expansions, Chinagoods, payment services, and import positive lists [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 77.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 16.91 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] - The company's operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 16.6 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow contributions from new market developments [1] Segment Performance Summary - The market operation segment generated revenue of 2.379 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [12] - The trade service segment saw a revenue increase of 43%, reaching 531 million yuan [12] - The payment service Yiwupay reported a net cross-border payment amount exceeding 25 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 47% [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 42.3 billion yuan, 57.1 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 35%, and 19% [1] - The corresponding P/E ratios based on the closing price on August 18 are projected to be 26, 19, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

证券研究报告 小商品城 (600415 CH) H1 净利同增 17%，创新业务+AI 赋能驱动 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 8 月 18 日│中国内地 零售 | 目标价(人民币): | 26.64 | | --- | --- | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 杨耀* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070059 yangyao@htsc.com 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 26.64 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 15 日) | 19.07 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 104,573 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 1,024 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 7.77-22.02 | | BVPS (人民币) | 3.72 | 股价走势图 (6) 47 100 153 206 Aug-24 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future stock performance [5]. Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in H1 2025, with total revenue of 7.713 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.691 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 21.92%, showing a slight increase of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the increasing popularity of the global trade center, which generated revenue of 2.379 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 4.8% year-on-year. The successful completion of market construction and high demand from businesses are noted as key factors [2]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its platform ecosystem, including the introduction of smart robots and AI navigation systems, which are expected to drive efficiency and cost reduction for merchants [2]. - The report projects significant revenue growth for the company, forecasting revenues of 20.53 billion yuan, 25.94 billion yuan, and 29.03 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.081 billion yuan, 6.002 billion yuan, and 6.803 billion yuan in the same years [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 20.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.45%. The net profit is projected to be 4.081 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32.79% [3][11]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 25.62 for 2025, decreasing to 15.37 by 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics over time [3][11]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 104.57 billion yuan, with a total share count of 5.484 billion shares [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 7.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.691 billion yuan, up 16.78% year-on-year, nearing the upper limit of the forecast range [2] - The trade service and commodity sales segments contributed significantly to revenue growth, with the CG platform's net profit increasing by 110% and YiPay's profit exceeding 50% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to maintain stable rental income and benefit from new market expansions and rental increases, with projected revenues of 20.3 billion yuan, 26.5 billion yuan, and 32.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 29%, 31%, and 23% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 7.713 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.691 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.668 billion yuan, showing growth rates of 16.78% and 17.57% respectively [2] - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows market operations, trade services, supporting services, and commodity sales generating revenues of 2.379 billion, 531 million, 270 million, and 4.533 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 43.2%, 16.7%, and 16.4% [3] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 31.56%, with a net profit margin of 21.92%, indicating stable profitability [5][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its rental space by 390,000 square meters through the global digital trade center initiative, with rental increases projected at no less than 5% annually from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.3 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.79 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.22 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][13]. Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 7.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.691 billion yuan, up 16.78% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of 4.552 billion yuan, growing 11.41%, and net profit of 888 million yuan, increasing 20.77% [1][7]. - Emerging businesses are significantly contributing to growth, with trade service revenue increasing by 43.16% to 531 million yuan, and the Chinagoods platform showing a remarkable 110% increase in net profit [1][9]. - The company is expected to enter a new expansion phase with the opening of the global digital trade center in October, which is anticipated to contribute additional revenue [2][13]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 31.55% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin product sales [2][9]. - Operating cash flow significantly improved, with a net cash flow of 1.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1109.17%, largely due to the receipt of funds from the global digital trade center [2][9]. - The company forecasts net profits of 4.032 billion yuan, 6.408 billion yuan, and 7.832 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.9, 16.3, and 13.4 [2][13].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 7.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.99%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.148 billion yuan, up 12.45% [1] - The company is actively expanding its global footprint and enhancing its financial services through its subsidiary, Yizhifu, which is involved in international trade reform and financial license applications [1][7] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.383 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 1109.17% year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash receipts from the Yiwu Global Trade Center [2] - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2025 was 0.31 yuan [1] Business Expansion and Market Development - The Yiwu Global Trade Center is a key project for the company, with significant interest from merchants, particularly in the baby products and skincare sectors, indicating strong market demand [2] - The first phase of the Yiwu Global Trade Center is set to open in October 2025, with substantial progress made in construction [2] Trade and Economic Impact - Yiwu, where the company operates, is a vital hub for China's foreign trade, contributing to the growth of over 210,000 small and micro enterprises and attracting a large number of foreign businesses [3] - In the first half of 2025, Yiwu's total import and export value reached 405.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, with exports contributing significantly to the province's growth [3][4] Innovation and Technology Integration - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance its foreign trade capabilities, with its Chinagoods platform registering over 5.1 million buyers across more than 200 countries [6] - Yizhifu's cross-border payment services have expanded significantly, with over 2.5 billion USD in cross-border receipts, marking a growth of over 47% [6][7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on upgrading its logistics services, with its digital supply chain platform providing enhanced international logistics solutions, achieving a 77% year-on-year growth in service volume [7] - Yizhifu is also enhancing its banking partnerships and expanding its service offerings, including local currency services in Nigeria [7]