Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline during the Asian trading session, trading below the $4,350 mark after reaching a near seven-week high, primarily due to profit-taking and a short-term rebound in the US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent US employment data has led to adjustments in market expectations regarding future policy environments, with some traders anticipating a more accommodative policy path if economic data continues to signal a slowdown [3] - The changing international landscape, particularly Venezuela's naval escort measures under external pressure, has increased regional uncertainty, which historically boosts interest in safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The market is focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations for November's overall CPI year-on-year at 3.1% and core CPI at 3.0% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Perspectives - There are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy adjustments, with some members advocating for a return to a more neutral stance under appropriate conditions, while others express caution until inflation shows significant decline [4] - Following the release of employment data, market expectations for a policy adjustment next month increased from 22% to 31% [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - The mid-term structure of gold remains relatively positive, with prices above the 100-day exponential moving average and the Bollinger Bands expanding [4] - If gold prices form a strong bullish candlestick and break above the upper Bollinger Band at $4,352, there is potential to test the $4,381 high and approach the psychological level of $4,400 [4] - Conversely, if prices weaken and fall below the December 17 low of $4,300, further declines may occur, with attention on the December 16 low of $4,271 and the 100-day exponential moving average around $4,233 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, indicating a persistent political deadlock [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated, but it may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official economic data during the shutdown [2] - Market expectations suggest that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a muted response, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since August 2022, reflecting expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has also fallen below 4%, reaching its lowest closing level in over a year, indicating a consistent bearish outlook among investors regarding future economic conditions [2] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the sharp slowdown in job growth, which, despite being offset by a contraction in labor supply, remains a troubling trend [3] Group 3 - The current spot gold price is trading above $4106, with a slight increase of 0.30%, and has shown a range between a high of $4136.89 and a low of $4064.51 [1] - The structural bullish outlook for spot gold remains intact, supported by trading above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $3613.62 [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is above the midpoint and not in the overbought zone, reinforcing upward momentum for gold prices [5]