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核心通胀超3%坚挺 加拿大央行9月或暂不降息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-26 05:21
美元兑加元可能处于"楔形"模式的形成过程中。相对强弱指数(RSI)低于60,该动能指标也显示卖方压 力较大。上行方面,初步阻力位可关注1.3878附近,若能突破可能缓解短期下行压力;下行方面,重要 支撑则关注1.3758水平,若有效跌破该支撑,可能会确认下行趋势的延续,进一步目标看向1.3375下 方。 周二(8月26日)亚盘早盘,美元兑加元最新价报1.3856,涨幅0.02%,开盘价为1.3855。牛津经济研究 院经济学家迈克尔·达文波特表示,核心通胀率依然过于坚挺,加拿大央行官员难以放心降息。 7月份,由于加拿大取消了消费者碳税,能源价格下降,总体通胀率降至1.7%。然而,达文波特表示, 食品、住房和耐用品价格上涨抵消了这一影响,耐用品价格上涨可能反映了关税的影响。他补充说,该 公司预计,随着美加关税争端的成本逐渐转嫁到零售价格,总体通胀率和核心通胀率(目前仍高于 3%)在短期内都将缓慢上升。达文波特预计,加拿大央行将在9月17日维持其政策利率在2.75%不变。 ...
不出中国所料,特朗普对全球征税后,高兴不到一天,噩耗就来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 14:43
"午夜已到!数亿美元的关税正滚滚流入美利坚合众国!" 8月7日,随着特朗普在"真实社交"上的胜利呼喊,美国的"对等关税"政策终于全面生效。 一个星期前,特朗普脸上挂着胜利的微笑,大笔一挥,更新了最新税率表。据白宫方面透露,这份最新关税清单将在8月7日零时正式生效。 不同于一开始的"温和",现在的美国在经过数月的混乱威胁和反复无常后,变得丧心病狂、走火入魔。甭管是敌军还是友军,统统拉高关税。 除了以上几个国家和地区之外,其他在谈判中未能对美国做出让步的、被美国认为存在贸易失衡的国家,都被写进了制裁名单里。一些和美国存在贸易关系 的小国家,甚至连谈判的资格都没有,直接抢钱。 比如,巴尔干半岛的波黑和北非的阿尔及利亚,直接被征了30%的税。除此之外,文莱25%,孟加拉国20%。 这些小国家,税率还不是最高的。和美国关系密切的瑞士关税为39%,住在美国隔壁的加拿大税率为35%。叙利亚、老挝、缅甸等国超过40%。最冤的是巴 西,明明是美国的贸易顺差国,却因"金砖成员"的身份被美国记恨,征了50%的税。 据报道,目前,美国的平均关税税率已从去年的2.3%大幅提升至15.2%,达到了二战以来的最高水平。国际贸易市场哀鸿遍野 ...
【环球财经】欧元区7月通胀率保持在2%
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-01 13:59
Group 1 - The Eurozone's inflation rate for July is reported at 2.0% year-on-year, unchanged from June, aligning with the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.3%, service prices rose by 3.1%, and non-energy industrial goods prices went up by 0.8%, while energy prices decreased by 2.5% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for July, consistent with June [1] Group 2 - Major Eurozone economies reported varying inflation rates for July: Germany at 1.8%, France at 0.9%, Italy at 1.7%, and Spain at 2.7% [1] - The European Central Bank noted that the inflation rate has reached the 2% medium-term target, with most long-term inflation expectations also around 2%, supporting price stability [1] - The chief economist of ING, Bert Colijn, indicated that the short-term inflation environment in the Eurozone is relatively mild, which helps maintain price stability, but global trade tensions pose a risk of renewed inflation [1]
每日债市速递 | 国债期货收盘全线下跌
Wind万得· 2025-07-24 22:32
Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 331 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 331 billion yuan. On the same day, 450 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market's funding conditions have tightened further, with a decrease in funding supply. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) rose nearly 28 basis points, surpassing the 1.65% mark. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64% [6] Bond Market - The yields on medium to long-term bonds in the interbank market increased by approximately 3 basis points, while government bond futures saw a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.92% [8][10] Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.92%, the 10-year main contract down 0.29%, the 5-year main contract down 0.21%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.07% [10] Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion [11] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to enhance financial services for rural reforms, emphasizing increased financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and innovative financing models [11] - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission reported that all 320 major projects in the city commenced in the first half of the year, with investment growth of 14.1%, outpacing the national growth rate of 11.3% [12] Global Macro - The Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5%, while the global economy faces uncertainty. Monthly data suggests that core CPI may not meet expectations, prompting a cautious and gradual easing path [14] Bond Market Events - In June, the northbound trading of Bond Connect reached 852.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of the year, securities firms underwrote technology innovation bonds totaling 381.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [16]
澳洲联储主席布洛克:应“审慎、渐进”地降息
智通财经网· 2025-07-24 06:31
Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is adopting a "cautious and gradual" approach to monetary policy easing, as stated by RBA Governor Michele Bullock [1] - Despite a surprising rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, other indicators such as job vacancy rates remain stable, suggesting a balanced labor market [1][2] - Financial markets are betting on two more rate cuts this year, with the probability of a third cut dropping from 76% to 40% [2] Group 2 - The RBA has already cut rates twice in the current cycle, bringing the cash rate down to 3.85% [2] - Bullock indicated that the core inflation rate for the second quarter may not reach the RBA's forecast of 2.6% [3] - The expectation is that inflation will gradually decline to 2.5%, but the RBA is awaiting data to support this prediction [4]
澳洲联储主席Bullock:仍预计核心通胀率将缓慢降至2.5%。全球经济仍面临不确定性和不可预测性。月度数据表明核心CPI可能没有达到预期。寻求数据支持核心通胀预期。鉴于CPI大幅回落,失业率仅小幅上升的情形令人震惊。委员会寻求审慎、渐进的宽松路径。澳洲联储加息幅度小于其他央行,可能不需要那么多降息。劳动力市场仍然吃紧,到年底可能会有所缓解。领先指标并未表明失业率大幅上升。
news flash· 2025-07-24 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]
7月24日电,澳大利亚央行行长表示,仍预计核心通胀率将缓慢降至2.5%。
news flash· 2025-07-24 03:09
智通财经7月24日电,澳大利亚央行行长表示,仍预计核心通胀率将缓慢降至2.5%。 ...
机构:新加坡金管局本月或维持政策不变
news flash· 2025-07-21 03:31
Core Viewpoint - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is likely to maintain its policy unchanged this month after two rounds of easing in January and April, despite pressures on growth from global trade disruptions [1] Economic Outlook - The second quarter GDP exceeded expectations, and the core inflation rate remains low, providing sufficient pause space for Singapore [1] - The MAS may prioritize retaining policy space before the Trump administration finalizes national and industry tariffs [1] Future Projections - If external adverse factors worsen and inflation remains low, CIMB expects MAS to flatten the nominal effective exchange rate policy band for the Singapore dollar to 0% in October [1]
大米价格回落 日本6月核心通胀从29个月高点回落
news flash· 2025-07-18 00:16
Group 1 - Japan's core inflation rate decreased from a 29-month high of 3.7% in June to 3.3%, aligning with expectations [1] - Overall inflation in Japan fell from 3.5% in May to 3.3% in June [1] - The "core-core" inflation rate, excluding fresh food and energy prices, increased from 3.3% to 3.4% [1] Group 2 - Rice prices in June rose by 100.2% year-on-year, showing a slight easing compared to May's increase of 101.7%, which was the largest rise in over half a century [1] - The data release coincides with Japan's efforts to address economic growth concerns stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - Cost of living issues are expected to dominate the upcoming Senate elections in Japan [1]
美联储柯林斯:关税将在下半年推动通胀上升,核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在约3%。
news flash· 2025-07-15 18:51
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Collins indicates that tariffs will drive inflation up in the second half of the year, with core inflation expected to remain around 3% by year-end [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are projected to contribute to rising inflation in the latter half of the year [1] - Core inflation rate is anticipated to stabilize at approximately 3% by the end of the year [1]