欧洲央行行长拉加德此前表示："我们希望通胀率保持在理想水平。"她说，如果通胀风险发生变化，或 者出现威胁目标的新冲击，欧洲央行有足够能力作出应对。 数据显示，欧元区9月食品和烟酒价格上涨3.0%，服务价格上涨3.2%，非能源类工业产品价格上涨 0.8%，能源价格下降0.4%。当月，剔除能源、食品和烟酒价格的核心通胀率为2.3%，与8月持平。 从国别来看，欧盟主要经济体德国、法国、意大利和西班牙9月通胀率分别为2.4%、1.1%、1.8%和 3.0%。 新华社布鲁塞尔10月1日电（记者康逸）欧盟统计局10月1日公布的初步统计数据显示，受服务价格上涨 以及能源价格降幅减小影响，欧元区9月通胀率按年率计算为2.2%，高于8月的2.0%，保持在欧洲央行 的中期目标水平上方。 欧洲央行9月11日决定继续维持欧元区三大关键利率不变。自2024年6月开启降息进程以来，欧洲央行已 下调利率八次，直至今年7月宣布维持利率不变。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:薛涛】 ...

Core Inflation and Interest Rates - Core inflation remained stable in August, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 0.3% for the month, resulting in an annual headline inflation rate of 2.7% [1] - The core PCE price level, excluding food and energy, was reported at 2.9% on an annual basis after a monthly rise of 0.2% [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to proceed with interest rate reductions, with indications of two more quarter percentage point cuts before the end of the year [3] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Personal income rose by 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures increased at a pace of 0.6%, both exceeding estimates by 0.1 percentage point [3] - Despite the impact of tariffs, consumer spending has remained strong, supported by stable income levels [4] Tariffs and Price Impact - President Trump's tariffs have had a limited effect on consumer prices, as companies have utilized pre-tariff inventory and cost-absorbing measures to mitigate price increases [4] - Fed officials suggest that tariffs may provide a one-time boost to prices rather than a sustained increase in underlying inflation [5] Market Expectations - Markets are anticipating a rate cut in October, with less certainty regarding another cut in December [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee recently approved a quarter percentage point reduction in the fed funds rate, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25% [6]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) data from major Eurozone economies shows differentiated inflation trends in Spain, Germany, and France, reflecting the impact of each country's economic structure and external shocks, which may complicate the European Central Bank's monetary policy [1] Spain - Spain's CPI in August increased by 2.7% year-on-year, remaining at the highest level in five months, with transportation costs significantly rising by 1.2%, offsetting a slowdown in food inflation to 2.3% [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, slightly increased to 2.4%, marking a four-month high [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI showed zero growth, consistent with preliminary statistics [2] Germany - Germany's CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year in August, reaching the highest level since March, driven by significant price increases in food, which rose by 2.5%, with fruits surging by 7.1% and sugar by 6.9% [3] - Energy prices remained in negative territory but the decline narrowed to -2.4%, with fuel and household energy continuing to exert downward pressure [3] - The core inflation rate remained stable at 2.7% for three consecutive months, while the month-on-month CPI slightly increased by 0.1% [3] France - France's annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 0.9% in August from 1.0% in July, with service price growth decelerating to 2.1% and manufactured goods prices declining by -0.3% [4] - Energy prices saw a reduced decline of -6.2%, while food and tobacco prices remained stable compared to July [4] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.4%, primarily due to a significant rebound in manufactured goods prices, which rose by 1.3% [4]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 2.9% in August, highlighting the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve ahead of a significant interest rate decision [1] - The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded July's rate of 2.7% and aligned with analyst expectations of 2.9% [1] - The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.1%, consistent with forecasts [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is grappling with a weak labor market and political pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates [1] - Traders continue to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with expectations for a slightly accelerated pace of cuts in subsequent meetings [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the possibility of a rate cut in September, suggesting that labor market weakness may mitigate the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The inflation rate in the Philippines rebounded to 1.5% in August, up 0.6 percentage points from July's 0.9% [1] - The August inflation rate falls within the central bank's forecast range of 1.0% to 1.8%, with an average inflation rate of 1.7% for the first eight months of the year, below the government's annual target lower limit of 2% to 4% [1] - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices shifted from a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in July to an increase of 0.9% in August, becoming the main driver of the inflation rebound [1] Group 2 - The core inflation rate in the Philippines rose to 2.7% in August, higher than July's 2.3% and last year's 2.6%, when excluding food and energy prices [1] - The price of vegetables turned from a year-on-year decline of 4.7% in July to an increase of 10.0% in August, while fish prices rose from 6.3% to 9.5% [1] - The Department of Economic Planning and Development highlighted the need for the government to strengthen its response to climate risks to ensure food supply and mitigate price volatility impacts on the public [2]

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation rate for August is reported at 2.1%, up from 2.0% in July, indicating a return above the European Central Bank's medium-term target level [1] - Core inflation, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains steady at 2.3% for August, unchanged from July [1] Inflation Details - Food and tobacco prices increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August - Service prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year - Non-energy industrial goods prices saw a rise of 0.8% - Energy prices decreased by 1.9% [1] Country-Specific Inflation Rates - Germany's inflation rate stands at 2.1% - France's inflation rate is at 0.8% - Italy's inflation rate is recorded at 1.7% - Spain's inflation rate is at 2.7% [1] Economic Outlook - Chief economist at ING, Bert Colijn, highlights that global economic risks remain significant, and inflation volatility risks persist - Current data suggests inflation will remain close to the European Central Bank's 2% target level [1] Central Bank Policy - The European Central Bank announced on July 24 to maintain the three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in interest rate cuts since June of the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro against the US dollar has declined despite better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, indicating that the market may be focusing on other factors rather than the inflation increase [1] Inflation Data - Eurozone's inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% in August, surpassing the market expectation of 2.0% [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [1] Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, the euro fell by 0.6% to 1.1636 USD, down from approximately 1.1644 USD before the announcement [1] - The market anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates at its policy meeting on September 11 [1] Technical Analysis - The primary support level for the euro against the dollar is the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1502 [1] - If this support is breached, subsequent support levels are the August low of 1.1391 (August 1) and the weekly bottom support of 1.1210 (May 29) [1] - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating a mild upward bias, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a weak trend strength without a clear direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase in prices, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $41.8 to close at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase. Silver futures also experienced a rise, closing at $40.750 per ounce, up 2.64% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - December gold futures surged due to technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark and reaching a three-week high [1]. - The increase in gold prices was supported by economic data released on the same day, indicating a favorable market environment for precious metals [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.2, a decline of approximately 6% from July, marking the first decrease in four months [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver futures prices on August 29, driven by technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market [1] - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by $41.8, closing at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase [1] - The December silver futures price increased by 104.7 cents, closing at $40.750 per ounce, with a rise of 2.64% [1] Group 2 - Economic data released on the same day indicated a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index falling to 58.2 in August, a decrease of approximately 6% from July [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year for July, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] - The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]