Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三再次警告称，美国正走在一条不可持续的财政道路上，并将未来十 年的赤字预测上调了1.4万亿美元，部分原因是总统特朗普2025年的税法以及移民政策。 CBO在一份报告中表示，特朗普去年7月推出的标志性财政方案——该方案延长了他2017年的减税措 施，并实施了一系列新的税收优惠，预计将在未来10年内使赤字增加4.7万亿美元。此外，政府的移民 执法行动预计将增加5000亿美元的成本。 报告还指出，这些损失预计将超过特朗普大幅提高进口关税所带来的收入。根据媒体估算，这些关税已 将平均有效关税税率提高到13%以上，为至少自20世纪40年代以来的最高水平。CBO预计，关税带来的 额外收入将在未来减少3万亿美元的赤字。 与此同时，净利息支出也预计将推动赤字进一步扩大。由于债务规模庞大以及平均利率上升，利息支出 将从2026年的1万亿美元激增至2036年的2.1万亿美元。 如果CBO的预测成真，将打击美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）将赤字在特朗普任期结束前降至约 占美国国内生产总值（GDP）3%的目标。CBO将2026年的赤字预测从特朗普就任前预计的5.5%上调至 5.8%，并预 ...

Price Trends - COMEX gold closed at $5,084.20 per ounce on February 9, 2026, after reaching a high of $5,626.8 on January 29, 2026, and a low of $4,423.2 on February 2, 2026[4] - COMEX silver closed at $83.05 per ounce on February 9, 2026, with a high of $121.785 on January 30, 2026, and a low of $63.9 on February 6, 2026[4] - Shanghai gold closed at ¥1,121.22 per gram on February 10, 2026, after a high of ¥1,258.72 on January 29, 2026, and a low of ¥1,005.4 on February 2, 2026[7] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global gold supply in 2025 was 5,002.31 tons, with recycled gold contributing 1,404.33 tons; China's gold production was 552.020 tons, a 3.35% increase year-on-year[10] - Global gold demand reached a record 5,002 tons in 2025, driven by investment demand of 2,175 tons, an 84% increase year-on-year; jewelry demand fell by 19.2% to 1,638 tons[13] - Central banks purchased 863.25 tons of gold in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024, but their share of total demand rose to nearly 25% by 2024[16] Inventory Insights - SHFE gold inventory rose from approximately 15 tons at the beginning of 2025 to about 100 tons by year-end, with a peak of 104 tons on February 9, 2026[18] - COMEX silver inventory started at over 300 million ounces in early 2025, peaking near 500 million ounces before declining to approximately 390 million ounces (1.21 million tons) by February 9, 2026[23] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.6% in November; non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below expectations[35] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 52.6 in January 2026, while the services PMI was at 53.8, indicating economic resilience[46] Market Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair led to a significant drop in precious metals, as he is viewed as a strong inflation fighter, impacting market expectations for gold[55] - Despite recent volatility, geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties may keep gold and silver prices above historical averages, with short-term targets around $5,000 per ounce for gold and $80 per ounce for silver[55]

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四在接受采访时表示："我们面临的最重要问题是必须将通胀率 拉回至2%。"他提到，其辖区内的众多企业都对成本上升和可负担能力下降表示担忧。 智通财经1月16日讯（编辑 卞纯）周四，多位美联储官员发表讲话，暗示愿意在即将召开的货币政策会 议上暂停降息，理由是劳动力市场似乎已趋于稳定，且通胀压力仍在持续。 近期在政策辩论中立场存在分歧的五位地区联储银行行长均表示，美联储目前处于有利位置，应等待更 多数据出炉后再采取进一步行动。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在1月27日至28日的会议上维持基准利率不变，此前该央行已在过去三次会议 上连续降息。 过去一周发布的经济数据显示，美国12月失业率微降至4.4%，终结了此前数月连续上升的态势；而通 胀数据则表明，美联储偏好的通胀指标可能仍接近3%——较其2%的目标水平高出整整1个百分点。 亚特兰大联邦储备主席博斯蒂克周四在一场活动中表示："我们无需急于采取任何行动。我 们需要确保维持限制性货币政策立场，因为当前通胀率仍然过高，高物价正给美国民众带来 压力。" 许多美联储政策制定者在讲话中都表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的支持，并强调了维护央行独立性的重要 性。 美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a slight rebound, supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a resilient US economy, despite political pressures on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate for December was reported at 4.4%, slightly below expectations, alleviating concerns about the labor market [2]. - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates no immediate reason for interest rate cuts, with GDP growth projected between 2.5% and 2.75% for 2026 [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The dollar index has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of January, rising from 97.905 to around 98.90, with a cumulative increase of over 1% [2]. - The dollar index is currently trading above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [2]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support has shifted to 98.87, previously a resistance level, with additional strong support between 98.40 and 98.50 [3]. - The 99.00 level is identified as a critical short-term resistance, with potential upward movement towards 99.22 and further resistance at 99.50 and 100.00 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the U.S. job market continues to experience low hiring and low layoffs as of December, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, interrupting its upward trend [1] Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.4%, which was unexpected and breaks the trend of rising unemployment [1] - New job additions are showing a slowing trend, suggesting potential downward revisions in future annual data [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already implemented three interest rate cuts, and with the unemployment rate not increasing further, there is still time and space for the Fed to consider pausing rate cuts in January [1]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% in December, interrupting the previous upward trend, while the November rate was revised down to 4.5% [2] - The U6 unemployment rate also showed a significant decline, indicating reduced pressure on marginally employed groups [2] - Average weekly working hours decreased but remained stable, and average hourly wage growth showed signs of recovery, with initial jobless claims remaining stable since December [2] Group 2 - Despite the temporary alleviation of concerns regarding the worsening employment situation, new job creation remains weak, with only 50,000 non-farm jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 65,000 [2] - The total non-farm employment for October and November was revised down by 76,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [2] - Job creation in the goods-producing sector is weak, while the service sector's job growth is concentrated in education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has room to pause interest rate cuts in January, as the unemployment rate has not risen further and many employment indicators suggest low risk of a rapid employment decline [3] - Following the release of non-farm data, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January is only 5% [3] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, but the timing has been pushed back to June and September [3]

来源：滚动播报 12月份4.4%的失业率与9月份的水平持平，缓解了有关11月份失业率曾跃升至4.6%的担忧。按历史标准 衡量，这一失业率水平仍相当温和，不过高于后疫情时代招聘热潮期间创下的低点。这些数据可能会削 弱有关美联储将在1月份降息的说法——鉴于失业率下降且首次申请失业救济人数有限，在2025年底连 续三次降息之后，官员们可能不会感到有进一步降息的太大紧迫性。 ...

智通财经1月9日讯（编辑 潇湘）2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个 真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还 将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日——标普 500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值 合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发 生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府 去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言 而喻——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期，要么会增强市场对美联储可能连 续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.18% as investors await the upcoming non-farm payroll report for December 2025, which is expected to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from a four-year high of 4.6% to 4.5% [1][2] - The December non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be the first timely report since the government shutdown, with economists predicting an increase of 73,000 jobs, reflecting a more accurate picture of the labor market after previous data distortions due to the shutdown [1] - The Chicago Fed estimates that the unemployment rate may remain at 4.6% for December, which would support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in January [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, with most participants believing that transitioning to a more neutral policy stance is necessary to prevent severe deterioration in the labor market [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 were reported at 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.914 million, indicating a labor market that is neither experiencing mass layoffs nor large-scale hiring [2] - The ADP employment report for December 2025 showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in the private sector, reversing the decline seen in November, although the growth was still below expectations [2]