每经AI快讯，周五纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌2.12个基点，报4.0633%，本周累计下跌 8.50个基点。两年期美债收益率跌2.53个基点，报3.5075%，本周累跌9.84个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced an upward trend on October 30, with notable increases in both 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating market reactions to economic conditions and potential inflation concerns [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.35 basis points, reaching 4.0892%, showing a V-shaped movement throughout the day [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.02 basis points, settling at 3.6082% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 0.146 basis points, now at +47.713 basis points [1] Group 2: TIPS Yields - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield increased by 1.84 basis points, reaching 1.7921% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield rose by 3.12 basis points, now at 0.9982% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw an increase of 2.51 basis points, reaching 2.4213% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4.78 basis points, reaching 3.9970% with intraday trading between 3.9436% and 4.0028% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.20 basis points, hitting a daily high of 3.4864% after a period of slight decline [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 4.99 basis points [1] Treasury Yield Movements - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread increased by 0.579 basis points, reported at +50.851 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 1.20 basis points to 1.6904% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 2.85 basis points to 0.9859% [1] - The 5-year TIPS yield rose by 3.89 basis points, stabilizing after the issuance of 5-year TIPS [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield increased by 3.57 basis points to 2.3557% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, indicating a persistent political deadlock [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated, but it may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official economic data during the shutdown [2] - Market expectations suggest that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a muted response, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since August 2022, reflecting expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has also fallen below 4%, reaching its lowest closing level in over a year, indicating a consistent bearish outlook among investors regarding future economic conditions [2] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the sharp slowdown in job growth, which, despite being offset by a contraction in labor supply, remains a troubling trend [3] Group 3 - The current spot gold price is trading above $4106, with a slight increase of 0.30%, and has shown a range between a high of $4136.89 and a low of $4064.51 [1] - The structural bullish outlook for spot gold remains intact, supported by trading above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $3613.62 [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is above the midpoint and not in the overbought zone, reinforcing upward momentum for gold prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year yield rising slightly while the 2-year yield showed a more significant increase, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.57 basis points, closing at 4.0378% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2.08 basis points, reaching 3.5014% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes decreased by 1.506 basis points, now at +53.429 basis points [1] Group 2: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The 10-year TIPS yield increased by 1.12 basis points, now at 1.7349% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield rose by 2.28 basis points, reaching 1.0051% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw an increase of 0.60 basis points, now at 2.4126% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on the matter [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [2][10]. - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management decision," indicating that the Fed believes its policies have been on the right track this year [6][19]. - The recent adjustment comes amid a backdrop of significant downward revisions in non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs, highlighting the economic challenges faced [7][19]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The meeting was described as a "showdown" between the Federal Reserve and the White House, with Powell managing to maintain internal unity despite the political climate [9][10]. - The vote reflected a temporary victory for the Fed's independence, as the majority of members supported the rate cut despite potential pressures from Trump [10][12]. - The only dissenting vote came from a newly appointed member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating ongoing divisions within the Fed [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure to safeguard economic growth before a potential recession, with Powell acknowledging signs of a weakening job market [18][19]. - Historical precedents for preventive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the current economic trajectory [21][26]. - Analysts express concerns that the current economic issues stem from rising costs rather than insufficient demand, suggesting that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation [27][28].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield falling by 5.6 basis points to 4.16%, marking the largest decline since disappointing non-farm payroll data in August [1] - The market is anxiously awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with a 99.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to concerns that poor data might prompt the Fed to act sooner than expected [3] - Recent actions by the U.S. Treasury, including a Q3 refinancing plan that reduced long-term debt issuance by $50 billion, have provided temporary relief to the market, although future debt issuance could increase by $2 trillion due to Trump's fiscal plans [3] Group 2 - Foreign investments are increasing in the U.S. Treasury market, with net inflows of $12.7 billion in August, particularly from China and Japan, indicating that institutional investors see value in the current yield environment [3] - September is expected to be a volatile month for the bond market, with $310 billion in corporate bonds set to be issued, potentially diverting significant capital [4] - The article warns that upcoming changes in tariff policies could elevate inflation expectations, reminiscent of last October's spike in Treasury yields, which caused substantial losses for investors [4]

周三纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌4.46个基点，报4.2168%，日内交投于4.2984%-4.1993%区 间，北京时间22:00发布美国职位空缺之后短线显著走低。两年期美债收益率跌2.26个基点，报 3.6166%，日内交投于3.6597%-3.6002%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts have significantly influenced gold prices, reaching a peak of $3,378 per ounce before slightly declining to $3,364 per ounce [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 12 basis points to 3.85%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.7%, creating a favorable environment for gold as a zero-yield asset [3] - Despite the historical high in gold prices, real interest rates remain positive, suggesting that the current rise in gold prices is driven more by investor risk aversion rather than a reassessment of gold's intrinsic value [3] Group 2 - The market consensus indicates an expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but there is a 30 basis point divergence regarding the timing and magnitude of a second cut [3] - The widening spread between gold and silver prices has drawn market attention, with silver's industrial properties potentially offering greater upside during a rate cut period [3] - UBS Wealth Management's latest report emphasizes that long-term support factors for gold remain strong, including central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years and unresolved geopolitical risk premiums [4] Group 3 - The current investment strategies are shifting, as hedge funds have reduced their net long positions in gold to a six-week low, while silver management funds have increased their holdings [3] - The perception of gold as a stable safe-haven asset may lead to unforeseen risks, prompting the need for more complex hedging strategies, such as using gold options for spread combinations or silver futures for volatility arbitrage [4]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole central bank conference is set to begin, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's final speech, which is expected to be dovish amid rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [3][5] - Recent weak U.S. employment data has led to increased market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year [3][5] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen the largest decline, reflecting the market's sensitivity to interest rate changes [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump has publicly criticized Powell, suggesting that his policies are harming the real estate sector and calling for significant rate cuts [5][6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that rate cuts could help the struggling real estate market, which has been facing low sales and new construction [6] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend in response to rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - Market analysts note that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have shown strong performance, as investors anticipate a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [7] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is under review, with potential changes expected to be part of Powell's legacy after his term ends in May 2024 [7][8] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which some believe contributed to misjudgments regarding inflation during the pandemic [8]